NCAA Tournament - WSU vs Drake Pre-Game Predictions and Discussions

[WuDrWu]

One thing that I think will be interesting is seeing how this match-up differs from what each team was used to seeing in conference play. A particular area of interest is shot blocking. When you look at the conference numbers, it becomes very clear that shots are contested at the bucket at a much higher rate in the American than in the Valley. For instance, WSU is only the #5 team in blocked shots per game in the AAC, but would have been tied for 1st in the Valley. Meanwhile, Drake is 4th in the MVC, but would be 9th in the AAC. Here are the full numbers:

American	Block Per Game	Valley	Blocks Per Game
Memphis	4.9	Bradley	3.6
Houston	4.7	Valpo	3.5
SMU	4.5	Ill. St.	3.4
Cincy	3.8	Drake	3.0
WSU	3.6	Ind. St.	2.9
UCF	3.4	MSU	2.9
ECU	3.1	UNI	2.6
Tulane	3.1	Loyola	2.4
USF	2.8	Evansville	2.2
Temple	2.4	SIU	1.8
Tulsa	2.0

This raises a couple of questions for me. First, will Drake struggle to shoot their normal (very good) percentages when facing better shot-blocking? Maybe, maybe not, but it is worth noting that Drake lost to both Bradley and Valpo and in those two games Drake had shots blocked 11 times combined. The Valpo game in particular, Drake had 7 shots blocked and shot .365 from the field compared to their season average of .494. Second, will WSU get cleaner looks when attacking the basket than we are used to? Also hard to say, but it can't hurt.

Obviously, on paper Drake's offensive efficiency gives them an edge in this game, but if WSU contested shots at the basket better than Drake is accustomed to and WSU gets cleaner looks when we get to the rim (especially some like AG) those shooting percentage differences could potentially equalize quite a bit. I think Drake is a veteran enough and well-polished enough team that the latter of these two dynamics is more likely to be impactful.

I like this analysis a lot, and also begs the question on how Dexter but mostly Tyson (who hasn't been going to the basket much) and Alterique (who has been denied at the basket a lot in the latter part of the season) are going to do getting to the basket. If Tyson and especially AG are getting to the cup successfully, we should be in very good shape (and to echo an earlier poster's comment, if Drake can keep AG in front of them and away from the paint, hats off to them).

[SB Shock]

Interesting read from Athlon. Also funny timing since he disagrees with my take on our defense.

Maybe the issue isn’t our defense, per se, it’s just our poor defensive rebounding bleeding into the stat. As in, if we could just finish defensive stand with more rebounds, our overall defensive efficiency numbers would look better? I don’t know.

WSU is not elite defensive team. Overall KenPom has them at 103 overall. Which is the 2nd worst Marshall defensive team. With this team being similar to the 2018 team (though it was a great rebounding team).

WSU does not turn teams over. They are one of the poorest defensive rebounding teams in the country (and this does bleed over in their overall rating).

WSU has been better on 3pt defense, but is weaker inside (which is Drake strength).

It hard to see this team change it "stripes" now, but this team is going to have too buy-in if they want to play beyond Thursday.

[wichshock65]

I hope his head is in the right place. We need Dex to be 100% on point.

[BostonWu]

Dang! I have a rule of not betting the Shox, but this makes it SOOO tempting! Which is what Vegas is trying to do.

I usually bet against the shox when I feel its warranted. That's called the emotional hedge. Definitely will not do that in this game.

[wichshock65]

[shockerfan]

I hope his head is in the right place. We need Dex to be 100% on point.

Lol I don't think that tweet will derail him. He is still a competitor who wants to win. It's a simple tweet of support. No big deal.

[shockerfan]

[ShockerFever]

So that means the betting has been on Drake to win and they need to push people to WSU (Drake has been the popular pundit pick so far).

They have?

[ShockerFever]

What’s with the constant “dawg” comments? Lol it was something that *literally* one former player said once. Going a bit overboard with it, no?

The coach of the team has stated it and it’s one of his basic philosophies. And it also shows up in gameplay.

So no, not overdoing it.

[pie n eye]

I hope his head is in the right place. We need Dex to be 100% on point.

Interesting. It’s a hashtag going around among many players right now. I’m not unsympathetic but I am curious what exactly the players are demanding beyond just bringing further awareness to the issue. They want to be paid for the NCAA to use their likeness? Ok. How much? What is fair?

[wichshock65]

They have?

[ShockerFever]

I know that’s where the Vegas money is going, but all the bracket shows and pundits I’ve seen has had WSU.

We’ve been underdogs more than we’ve been favorites this year. Kinda plays into our hands.

Hope the guys see that the public thinks Drake is winning this one.

[shockersx]

The coach of the team has stated it and it’s one of his basic philosophies. And it also shows up in gameplay.

So no, not overdoing it.

Ah interesting. Never heard IB say that or state that it’s a basic philosophy of his. But continue on.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

[ShockerFever]

Ah interesting. Never heard IB say that or state that it’s a basic philosophy of his. But continue on.

You think i just mention it for shits and giggles?