NCAA Tournament - WSU vs Drake Pre-Game Predictions and Discussions

[ShockingButTrue]

One thing about Hemphill is he doesn't shoot from outside the arc (only three attempted 3FGs this year), so hopefully Dex can focus on denying him a route to the basket and receiving the ball in a scoring position.

If Mo can draw a few fouls on Brodie that would be a huge factor, IMO.

Don't let Yesefu have a career game. The guy takes a lot of shots (16 attempts per game in his last seven) and from his game log appears to be either hot or cold from beyond the arc. He also has games where he gets to the FT line. In 3 of his last 5 games he's taken 10 FTs and is an 80% FT shooter. He seems to have tried to replace Penn's assists by scoring more. He only has more than two assists in two games since Dec 27th. Wilkins is the guy who's assist numbers picked up after Penn went down.

I think how well Gilbert defends Yesufu will be the biggest key of the game.

This is a good scout. GGG would be proud.

[wichshock65]

[RoyalShock]

I wonder if Hemphill is hampered if you see TE and AG guard him a bit more and let DD lock down Yesufu

Possibly, but they would be giving up quite a bit of size, especially for a guy who gets his points inside the arc.

Another factor which someone may have already mentioned, is that they aren't a deep team. In their last four games the bench has played 11, 14, 28, and 8 minutes, for an average of 15 minutes. By comparison, the Shocks bench has played 43, 40, 42 and 31 (I substituted the Houston game for the USF blowout) for an average of 39 minutes (mostly without Poor Bear). Even with Hemphill back, Drake won't be able to play aggressive defense. This may be a game where we want our guards to take it right to them (hopefully in a smart way).

[shockerfan]

Does Drake like to zone? Seems the zone really screws us up...especially when the outside shots aren't falling. If they play man I think that would be to our advantage

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

LFG!!

[BostonWu]

WSU now +1.5

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

WSU now +1.5

Dang! I have a rule of not betting the Shox, but this makes it SOOO tempting! Which is what Vegas is trying to do.

[DUShock]

The truly educated NCAA follower realizes that the NET just can't trusted this year. But I've seen a good number of followers/so called experts who aren't very educated on it. If I weren't from a school who has been totally jobbed by this metric, I probably would have skated past it too. However, in the future, I will watch this metric very closely.

What is Colgate’s seeding?

[Shockm]

What is Colgate’s seeding?

Tell me, and then tell me their NET, and then expound on your point, please.

[SubGod22]

What is Colgate’s seeding?

Exactly. If the NET was so great this year, Colgate wouldn't be a 14 seed.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

[wichshock65]

Final Analysis


Wichita State overcame significant offseason turmoil and 10 COVID-19 related game cancellations to become AAC regular-season champions. That isn't an easy feat to pull off in one of the nation's better basketball leagues. Drake is missing key players at the wrong time. The Shockers are a strong defensive team and force opponents to make numerous mistakes. While the Bulldogs are a team full of efficient shooters, they also did it at full strength while facing significantly weaker opponents than Wichita State. The Shockers will find just enough of an edge to notch their 12th straight win in their series with Drake.
Prediction: Wichita State 68, Drake 65

[pie n eye]

Using the defensive efficiency stat we are not a great defensive team when looking at the entire season. That jives with my eye test and doesn’t bode well for our NCAA chances.

Obviously I would rather be very good on both ends but I would pick a strong defense over offense. I have no stat to back it up but I think defense generally takes you further in this type of tournament than offense unless you’re just an elite offensive team but even then you can go cold in any given game.

There is a glimmer of hope. Over our last three games our defensive efficiency numbers would be around the top 30 if translated to the entire season. Unfortunately, those three games came against USF x 2 and Cincinnati who are both very poor offenses. I trust the overall season numbers more than the last three games.

Add in our generally poor rebounding and I understand why few are optimistic about our chance to win more than a game, if that.

That being said, I still think the three potential opponents are beatable. Can the shockers consistently find the effort they gave against Houston?

[pie n eye]

Interesting read from Athlon. Also funny timing since he disagrees with my take on our defense.

Maybe the issue isn’t our defense, per se, it’s just our poor defensive rebounding bleeding into the stat. As in, if we could just finish defensive stand with more rebounds, our overall defensive efficiency numbers would look better? I don’t know.

[Horn28Clem30]

Dang! I have a rule of not betting the Shox, but this makes it SOOO tempting! Which is what Vegas is trying to do.

Boy I know 100% what you mean.