2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[WuShock Reaper]

Haven't read much here as I'm not too hot on BracketBusters.

That being said, when are the BB games?

The Games will be held on February 17th, 18th, and 19th.

Teams will be selected on January 30.

Only the top 26 teams (13 games) will have a chance to be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3 or ESPNU.

Here is the link:

http://espnbracketbusters.com/

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/08/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note: FINAL UPDATE

Iona (RPI #33) WON at Marist (RPI #267)
Butler (RPI #79) LOST at Detroit (RPI #259)
Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #88) LOST at Drexel (RPI #138)

Commentary:
Iona won, which is good. However, Butler may have suffered such a bad loss that their chances for a high profile Bracketbuster TV game is unrecoverable. To a lesser extent, VCU's loss hurts their chances but will likely have some games to make up lost ground.

[AndShock]

I'd imagine Butler is getting a high profile game no matter what they do.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/09/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note:

NONE


Commentary:

NONE

[_kai_]

I'd imagine Butler is getting a high profile game no matter what they do.

If they do, it's a crime. For BB to work, they have to pair up the the highest RPI seeds. If they don't, and give teams like VCU and Butler a high profile game, when they're not having a year to deserve it, then BB isn't worth anyone's time. It already is nearly pointless with the amount of teams they have in it, something like 156.

[vtshocker]

I want Murray St. Think how huge it would be if we roll in and give them their first loss at home

[ABC]

I think that Bracket Busters has been fairly good about matching up teams with similar RPIs. I would be curious to see which games over the years had the largest disparity in RPI b/t opponents.

[WuShock Reaper]

Here we are: three weeks before ESPN Bracketbuster Selection Monday. We have rounded the second turn and Murray State still has a comfortable lead as we head down the long back-stretch and should have no problems with its two home games this week and is starting to put distance between her and the other teams. Can anyone catch her this week?

Iona has recovered from its earlier stumble and will have an opportunity to gain some ground with two good opponents at home this week: Manhattan RPI #145 and Loyola-Maryland RPI #112.

Davidson will likely remain in third place as they face one fair team at home (Western Carolina RPI #169) and one terrible team (Appalachian State RPI #265) on the road.

Oral Roberts has now joined the Tier 1 group with two good wins against the Dakota’s (both North RPI #84 and South RPI #70). This week they have two games on the road at Western Illinois RPI #118 and IUPUI RPI #225.

Ohio out of the Mid-American Conference 9-game winning streak came crashing to an end with two losses one at home and one bad loss on the road. Can the Ohio Jockey get back firmly in the saddle? We will see this week as Ohio faces RPI # 92 Buffalo at home, then goes on the road to face the Akron Zips at RPI #104.

Cleveland State has now fallen to the Tier 2 group, but will also have a chance to regroup as they face conference rival Butler #98 at Hinkle Field House and Valparaiso #137 at their place.

TIER 1
Murray State - #18, Iona - #33, Davidson - #43, Oral Roberts - #46, Ohio - #67

TIER 2
Cleveland State - #68, South Dakota State - #71, New Mexico State - #77, North Dakota State - #84, Virginia Commonwealth - #86,

TIER 3
Weber State - #90, Kent State - #95, Butler - #98, Wisconsin-Milwaukee - #111, Loyola-Maryland - #113,

BREAKDOWN LANE
George Mason - #120, Coastal Carolina - #126, Montana - #146, Charleston Southern - #148

DOG FOOD FACTORY IN OKLAHOMA (teams greater than 150)
Utah State - #156, Green Bay - #158

[WuShock Reaper]

TOP 15 GAMES AND POSSIBLE MVC MATCHUPS:

1. Northern Iowa (RPI #22) - Missouri Valley at Murray State (RPI #18) - Ohio Valley
2. Long Beach State (RPI #24) - Big West at Creighton (RPI #30) - Missouri Valley
3. Saint Mary's College (RPI #31) - West Coast at Iona (RPI #33) - Metro Atlantic
4. Wichita State (RPI #35) - Missouri Valley at Davidson (RPI #43) - Southern
5. College of Charleston (RPI #53) - Southern at Oral Roberts (RPI #46) - Summit League
6. Lamar (RPI #62) - Southland at Missouri State (RPI #57) - Missouri Valley
7. Nevada (RPI #79) - WAC - Summit League at Ohio (RPI #67) - Mid-American
8. UC Santa Barbara – Big West (RPI #80) at Cleveland State (RPI #68) - Horizon
9. Buffalo (RPI #92) - Mid-American at South Dakota State (RPI #71)
10. Indiana State (RPI #94) - Missouri Valley at New Mexico State (RPI #77) - WAC
11. Akron (RPI #104) - Mid-American - Metro Atlantic at North Dakota State (RPI #84) - Summit League
12. Drake (RPI #109) - Missouri Valley at Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #86) - Colonial
13. UNC Wilmington (RPI #105) - Colonial at Weber State (RPI #90) - Big Sky
14. Western Illinois (RPI #118) – Summit League at Kent State (RPI #95) - Mid-American
15. Fairfield (RPI #131) - Metro Atlantic - at Butler (RPI #98) - Horizon


Missouri Valley - 6 teams
Mid-American - 4 teams
Summit League - 4 teams
Big West - 2 teams
Colonial - 2 teams
Horizon - 2 teams
Metro Atlantic - 2 teams
Southern - 2 teams
Ohio Valley - 1 team
Southland - 1 team
WAC - 1 team
West Coast - 1 team

[ABC]

We have seven games until the announcement. Each with the potential to make a big difference on RPI, especially the UNI game.

01-10 Illinois St. 11-4 (3-1) #102
01-13 Bradley 5-11 (0-4) #221
01-15 at Indiana St. 9-5 (1-3) #94
01-18 at Northern Iowa 11-4 (2-2) #24
01-21 Southern Ill. 5-9 (2-2) #254
01-25 Evansville 6-7 (2-2) #145
01-28 at Drake 7-7 (1-3) #109

[shox1989]

I bet you anything that Butler and VCU make the TV games. Right now they both look like they are on the cusp, so depending on where they are at in a few weeks, they may not need to move them up too much to get them on TV.

[WuShock Reaper]

I think that Bracket Busters has been fairly good about matching up teams with similar RPIs. I would be curious to see which games over the years had the largest disparity in RPI b/t opponents.

For TV Games Only:

In 2009 - the average RPI difference between teams was 27.9;

In 2010 - the average RPI difference between teams was 23.3;

In 2011 - the average RPI difference between teams was 11.6; and

In 2012 - the average RPI difference between teams is 10.4, if they go strictly by RPI rankings.

[WuShock Reaper]

Bracketbuster TV Games:

2009 - ESPN2 average RPI of 58.6 versus ESPNU average RPI of 99.7;

2010 - ESPN2 average RPI of 58.8 versus ESPNU average RPI of 85.7;

2011 - ESPN2 average RPI of 55.8 versus ESPNU average RPI of 99.0; and

2012 - ESPN2 average RPI of 42.9 versus ESPNU average RPI of 88.3, if they go strictly by RPI rankings.

[JaminShock]

TOP 15 GAMES AND POSSIBLE MVC MATCHUPS:

1. Northern Iowa (RPI #22) - Missouri Valley at Murray State (RPI #18) - Ohio Valley
2. Long Beach State (RPI #24) - Big West at Creighton (RPI #30) - Missouri Valley
3. Saint Mary's College (RPI #31) - West Coast at Iona (RPI #33) - Metro Atlantic
4. Wichita State (RPI #35) - Missouri Valley at Davidson (RPI #43) - Southern
5. College of Charleston (RPI #53) - Southern at Oral Roberts (RPI #46) - Summit League
6. Lamar (RPI #62) - Southland at Missouri State (RPI #57) - Missouri Valley
7. Nevada (RPI #79) - WAC - Summit League at Ohio (RPI #67) - Mid-American
8. UC Santa Barbara – Big West (RPI #80) at Cleveland State (RPI #68) - Horizon
9. Buffalo (RPI #92) - Mid-American at South Dakota State (RPI #71)
10. Indiana State (RPI #94) - Missouri Valley at New Mexico State (RPI #77) - WAC
11. Akron (RPI #104) - Mid-American - Metro Atlantic at North Dakota State (RPI #84) - Summit League
12. Drake (RPI #109) - Missouri Valley at Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #86) - Colonial
13. UNC Wilmington (RPI #105) - Colonial at Weber State (RPI #90) - Big Sky
14. Western Illinois (RPI #118) – Summit League at Kent State (RPI #95) - Mid-American
15. Fairfield (RPI #131) - Metro Atlantic - at Butler (RPI #98) - Horizon


Missouri Valley - 6 teams
Mid-American - 4 teams
Summit League - 4 teams
Big West - 2 teams
Colonial - 2 teams
Horizon - 2 teams
Metro Atlantic - 2 teams
Southern - 2 teams
Ohio Valley - 1 team
Southland - 1 team
WAC - 1 team
West Coast - 1 team

I hope LBSU and Creighton play- that game could end 92-90 or something close to it. Davidson would be ok, but I really, really want Murray St.

[shox1989]

I hope LBSU and Creighton play- that game could end 92-90 or something close to it. Davidson would be ok, but I really, really want Murray St.

Murray St would be much better. rpiforecast.com projects that Murray State will finish with a rpi of 29. They project that Davidson will finish with a rpi of 63.

29 is MUCH better than 63.