2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[1972Shocker]

Has BB really screwed us or have we screwed ourselves. If we were 6-2 in our BB games instead of 2-6 would the attitude about BB be any different. Hard to say, but somehow winning seems to solve a lot of issues. So we didn't get the game we really wanted. We still need to win the game we got. Although we have 5 tough conference games before we even travel to Davidson, so unless we take care of business is those games the BB game will be rendered irrelevant regardless of who the opponent is.

[ShockTalk]

You think the A-10 is a step-up in conference? I have to politely disagree. They have about 3 teams (UMass, Temple, Xavier) that I think could compete in the MVC on a yearly basis, the rest are very average and rarely have more than one season in a row where they're relevant.

We don't need to make rash decisions about leaving our conference due to being screwed in BB every year.

Late getting around reading all the posts, but your A-10 comment is interesting. You list 3 teams that would compete....UMass? Over the last 11 years, including this one, they barely have a winning regular season record, 162-156. On the other hand, Dayton, by far, has the second best winning % over the regular season at .666 (6 20+ win seasons, 221-111) to Temple (3rd, 4 20s, 202-125) .618. St Joe's is not far behind Temple at .598 (3 20s, 195-131). Richmond .559, St Louis .567 (7 seasons), GW .560, and Rhode Island .528 are all better than the Valley's #6 team, Ill St at .525.

The A-10 has 9 teams on the + side (64%) to the MVC 6 teams (60%). Also given that the A-10 probably has a stronger OOC SoS most years (this year #5 to the Valley's #11), I'm thinking the Valley is behind the A-10.

[WuShock Reaper]

UNI at -4, and everyone thinks VCU got screwed??

I went back just to make sure my analysis was set up correctly and it is correct. Northern Iowa was reduced 4 spots and VCU was moved up 2 spots. They (VCU) don't have anything to really gripe about in my opinion.

And just as a point of reference, WSU was dinged 2 spots and Davidson was moved up 3 spots.

[shox1989]

I went back just to make sure my analysis was set up correctly and it is correct. Northern Iowa was reduced 4 spots and VCU was moved up 2 spots. They (VCU) don't have anything to really gripe about in my opinion.

And just as a point of reference, WSU was dinged 2 spots and Davidson was moved up 3 spots.

I thought UNI really got screwed as soon as I heard the announcement. UNI had a rpi of 54 and VCU was 87. I thought if UNI got ORU or Iona or someone who had a chance ending up in the top 50 they might have a chance to pick up a needed top 50 win. VCU will NOT end up in the top 50, all of their remaining games are against teams that are over 100 in rpi.

The announcers saying VCU got screwed were just showing their east coast media bias. UNI got screwed.

UNI has nice wins over Colorado St (rpi #17) and Iowa St. (rpi #41)- the Iowa St win is looking better all of the time. If UNI hadn't screwed themselves by losing to UE and Bradley they could be in the ncaa picture. A strong finish and another top 50 win might have gotten them back into the discussion, but drawing a team that might not even be in the rpi top 100 at the end of the season probably sinks what little chance they had.

[ShockRef]

The best part about this game is once it is played, this thread will hopefully die.

27 pages about one non-league game against a non BCS team. You would think the decision was between Duke and UNC.

It's one game people against a non-con team in late February.


HCGM put it best yesterday when questioned about matching up against Davidson.

"I'm not worried about Davidson right now."

The only game on the schedule that matters is Mizzou State. Right now, it is the only important game until it is over and after the only one that matters is Indiana State.

[jocoshock]

Has BB really screwed us or have we screwed ourselves. If we were 6-2 in our BB games instead of 2-6 would the attitude about BB be any different. Hard to say, but somehow winning seems to solve a lot of issues. So we didn't get the game we really wanted. We still need to win the game we got. Although we have 5 tough conference games before we even travel to Davidson, so unless we take care of business is those games the BB game will be rendered irrelevant regardless of who the opponent is.

Amen... We need to shut our traps and let the teams do the talking for us...

[jocoshock]

4. Jake Cohen (Davidson): During his team's eight-game winning streak -- snapped at Samford over the weekend -- Cohen recorded five 20-point efforts. The 6-10 forward is not afraid to shoot, either. He's shooting 37 percent from beyond the arc this season. His versatility could cause matchup problems for Wichita State.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7522612/mid-major-report-radar-bracketbusters-difference-makers-college-basketball

[ripemupshocks]

You think the A-10 is a step-up in conference? I have to politely disagree. They have about 3 teams (UMass, Temple, Xavier) that I think could compete in the MVC on a yearly basis, the rest are very average and rarely have more than one season in a row where they're relevant.

We don't need to make rash decisions about leaving our conference due to being screwed in BB every year.

Yes! I think the A10 is a step-up in conference. And that is hardly a rash decision. That is to say, my opinion is not simply based on the fact the MVC went 1 and 4 against the A10 this season. It is also based on:

1. End of season RPI. According to teamrankings.com, in the previous fourteen seasons (as far back as they go), the MVC has finished higher than the A10 in RPI in only four of those seasons. And only once out of the last five has the MVC finished higher than the A10. (Although I must admit; the figures indicate the MVC has improved a great deal over that fourteen year period.)

2. Mid-Major vs. Quasi-Major. The A10 is considered by most a Quasi-Major conference, while the MVC seems to be considered by most, a Mid-Major conference. And while I would certainly agree, the difference between Quasi and Mid isn't always based on fact, but rather perception, you must also agree that often times, perception is more powerful than fact. (How else would one explain that C-USA is considered a Quasi-Major, or a better conference than the MVC, when in fact C-USA went 0-6 against the MVC this season. Or the fact that in four of the last five seasons, C-USA has finished with a lower RPI than the MVC. So if the facts indicate the MVC is a Mid-Major, shouldn't the facts also indicate C-USA is a Low-Major! But they don't. Because in this case, perception is more powerful than fact). Therefore, the A10 is perceived to be a more powerful conference than the MVC.

So once again, yes. I believe moving to the A10 would be a step-up.

[pinstripers]

yep

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (02/01/12) ESPN Bracketbuster Games of Note:

Wichita State (RPI #31) BB Opponent - Davidson (RPI #67) at Furman (RPI #234)
Northern Iowa (RPI #57) BB Opponent - Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #82) at William Mary (RPI #307)
Drake (RPI #95) BB Opponent - New Mexico State (RPI #87) vs. Cal State Bakersfield (RPI #247)
at Illinois State (RPI #120) BB Opponent - Oakland (RPI #129) at IUPUI (RPI #274)
Southern Illinois (RPI #235) BB Opponent - Ball State(RPI #221) at Buffalo (RPI #97)


Commentary:

These are the MVC Bracketbuster opponents. We (the MVC) need each of the five (bolded and underlined) teams to win tonight. Each win they get, will improve the chance of our conference moving up the ranks of top conferences and ahead of the Atlantic 10, but we will have to win 8, 9 or 10 of our Bracketbuster games. It would be really nice if Ball State could pick-up the big road win at Buffalo.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (02/01/12) ESPN Bracketbuster Games of Note:

Wichita State (RPI #31) BB Opponent - Davidson (RPI #67) WON at Furman (RPI #234)
Northern Iowa (RPI #57) BB Opponent - VCU (RPI #82) WON at William Mary (RPI #307)
Drake (RPI #95) BB Opponent - New Mexico State (RPI #87) WON vs. Cal State Bakersfield (RPI #247)
at Illinois State (RPI #120) BB Opponent - Oakland (RPI #129) LOST at IUPUI (RPI #274)
Southern Illinois (RPI #235) BB Opponent - Ball State(RPI #221) LOST at Buffalo (RPI #97)


Commentary:

These are the MVC Bracketbuster opponents. We (the MVC) need each of the five (bolded and underlined) teams to win tonight. Each win they get, will improve the chance of our conference moving up the ranks of top conferences and ahead of the Atlantic 10, but we will have to win 8, 9 or 10 of our Bracketbuster games. It would be really nice if Ball State could pick-up the big road win at Buffalo.

[shockrah]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...ege-basketball

Oh God, I hope we don't get screwed by another Cohen!

[1972Shocker]

Paul Suellentrip writes about BB in this weeks Shocker E-Mail Newsletter.

For those of you who do not subscribe here is the text:

Paul Suellentrop’s Shocker newsletter

Gripe all you want, BracketBusters isn’t going away.
The Missouri Valley Conference pioneered the made-for-TV series 10 seasons ago. Its participation is strongly tied to the ESPN contract for other regular-season appearances on ESPN2 or ESPNU. ESPN has grown to love BracketBusters, and the Valley’s participation is critical to the network. The fact five Valley schools earned TV games this season is all the proof you need.
Those facts might not convince you that BracketBusters is a good thing. It has flaws. Not every matchup is a great one. Not every matchup is one fans and coaches wants. With 142 teams, it’s unwieldy, to be sure.
However, it does help MVC schools — at least those who win regularly — schedule good opponents. As we know, scheduling is a chore, and it’s also an issue many fans complain about.
Darron Boatright, WSU’s senior associate athletic director, helps with basketball scheduling. He is a newcomer to WSU — hired in 2011 — and he sees the positives of BracketBusters. He sees George Mason, VCU and Utah State on the schedule. That’s two Final Four teams and a regular in the NCAA field.
“It’s an advantage to us to help get marquee-type opponents,” Boatright said. “That’s how we are able to get home-and-home situations.”
Had Wichita State announced a December series with a school that finished with an RPI ranked in the top 100 six times from 2002-2011, many fans would applaud. Should that school be located in an area where WSU often recruits would be viewed as a bonus.
That school could be Davidson, WSU’s opponent on Feb. 18 in this season’s BracketBusters. Davidson isn’t Murray State, the favored opponent of fans and coaches. But Davidson is also the type of opponent that can help build a good strength of schedule.
“I am a proponent of the BracketBusters,” Boatright said. “Sometimes, the matchups don’t work out exactly like you want. I’m sure (WSU coach Gregg Marshall) wasn’t very excited about going to Utah State to play at midnight (in 2010). But, I’m a proponent of these events.”
Boatright said WSU might not need BracketBusters to schedule Davidson. However, it might to land a home-and-home with VCU or Utah State. He would include the MVC-Mountain West Challenge in this category of scheduling aids. Other than Tulsa and Texas Tech, the list of quality home-and-home series in recent seasons is practically non-existent without the help of outside forces.

[shox1989]

Joe Lunardi has some interesting things to say in his "first impressions of the Bracket Busters".
He basically says that the WSU-VCU game cost the Shockers a bid last year and gave it to VCU.

Here is an excerpt from his column:

"....And let's not forget there may have been no NCAA tourney at all last year if not for VCU's one-point BracketBusters win at Wichita State. That result helped put the Rams into the NCAA field and drop the Shockers into the NIT (which, of course, they went on to win)."



.http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-coll...bracketbusters


Maybe we should rename the Bracket Busters the "Let's see who can steal a bid from the Valley" event.

[shox1989]

In the same column, Lunardi also lists the teams with the most to gain and most to lose from this year's BallBusters event:

Most to gain overall: Long Beach State, Nevada, Drexel.

• Most to lose overall: Murray State, Wichita State, New Mexico State.