2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[_kai_]

Agreed, we better crush them. UNI has screwed themselves by losing to last place BU, now all they can do is screw the rest (CU and WSU) by beating us. The Shox better bring their A game. At this point the Valley is looking like 2 bids at best unless someone else can win St. Louis.

Or worst yet, if CU and WSU end up neck and neck at the end, someone will be crowned regular season champs. My fear is that somehow CU wins the league, we get 2nd, get knocked out of the tournament, and we pick up 1 or 2 losses to someone other than CU in the regular season, and we end up in the NIT. This cannibalization of the middle and lower tier teams in the Valley is really going to start hurting RPI's down the road unless there are 4-5 teams that really separate themselves from the rest of the pack. If it's WSU/CU on top, and then the rest just eat themselves alive, we can't afford to lose to anyone but CU.

[ShockerGorilla]

These low-lifes need to stop winning!

[1972Shocker]

This cannibalization of the middle and lower tier teams in the Valley is really going to start hurting RPI's down the road unless there are 4-5 teams that really separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

I really don't see that happening. Based on what I've seen so far CU and WSU are the only two teams capable of separating from the pack (and that may or may not happen) but beyond that there may only be a couple of games difference between 3rd place and 9th place. Bradley looking like a favorite to separate from the pack at the bottom, but who knows they may be even get in the middle of the muddle.

I think Indiana State will still knock off a few teams currently ahead of them especially if they play at the level they did against the Shocks.

[martymoose]

These low-lifes need to stop winning!

I see we're on the same page here. :D

[WuDrWu]

If we aren't good enough to beat the ISUs, UNIs, DUs, BUs, SIUs and UEs 13 of 14 times, at least, then we aren't good enough to go to the dance anyway.

[ShockBand]

My question would be whether or not we have a strong enough resume otherwise to endure ONE stinker loss. The past two years, we obviously did not meet that criteria. I would like to think our OOC resume is better enough this year, but with the selection committee one never knows. They will probably seek to get three SucPac 12 teams in, even though right now they should be a one team conference, IMHO.

[ShockerFever]

These low-lifes need to stop winning!

Agreed.

The teams that sucked it up in non-conference and now getting chunks of wins is killing the Valley's reputation. And then you have a team like UNI, with gaudy computer numbers, going into free fall. Their numbers are obviously grossly inflated. We need to knock em down, grab and hold them, and give em a taste of their own medicine. They're gonna be amped up for us and desperate for a win, but we need to counter like we did in Terre TruckStop.

[shockmonster]

My question would be whether or not we have a strong enough resume otherwise to endure ONE stinker loss. The past two years, we obviously did not meet that criteria. I would like to think our OOC resume is better enough this year, but with the selection committee one never knows. They will probably seek to get three SucPac 12 teams in, even though right now they should be a one team conference, IMHO.

I think that soon we'll see a division of the middle teams and the bottom teams just like we're seeing at the top. Losses from teams in the 40-60 and 60-100 RPI areas won't be as bad as lower teams. I could be wrong. Some of these teams can't win on the road. We'll see if UNI, and MSU will begin to win a few road games.

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/17/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note: FINAL UPDATE

North Dakota State (RPI #91) LOST at North Dakota (RPI #295)
Coastal Carolina (RPI #135) LOST at UNC Asheville (RPI #133)


Commentary - *=Key Games

"Life on the Road" as both in-state rival games get the best of the two potential home ESPN Bracketbuster teams.

[Kung Wu]

My question would be whether or not we have a strong enough resume otherwise to endure ONE stinker loss. The past two years, we obviously did not meet that criteria. I would like to think our OOC resume is better enough this year, but with the selection committee one never knows. They will probably seek to get three SucPac 12 teams in, even though right now they should be a one team conference, IMHO.

If we beat Creighton or our BracketBuster opponent then: Yes. Otherwise: probably. The RPIs of the league seem higher than the past two years so a stinky loss isn't as bad plus we'll have more good wins stacked up.

[wusphlash]

I believe the RPI is subject to one of the basic laws of physics, "for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction". The Valley composite RPI is pretty much set at this point excluding the Bracket Buster games. Any individual changes will be of a predatory nature. One Valley team improves their RPI at the expense of another. As long as we take care of business, as long as we are the predator, ours will go up. This is especially true since 4 of our games have been against the 3 teams with the lowest individual RPIs. Does this make sense to anybody but me?

[WuDrWu]

If we beat Creighton or our BracketBuster opponent then: Yes. Otherwise: probably. The RPIs of the league seem higher than the past two years so a stinky loss isn't as bad plus we'll have more good wins stacked up.

If we beat CU and BB then we're in the mix for a protected seed.

[Aargh]

As long as we take care of business, as long as we are the predator, ours will go up.

That's not quite the way it works. The road win at InSU, which has a lower-100's rpi, actually cost WSU a couple of RPI spots. WSU's RPI is now back at 31, which is where it was before the INSU game. The way the Valley has migrated towards a plethora of mediocre RPI's leaves WSU barely hanging on to a top 40 RPI even with a pretty solid result from here on out.

[WSUwatcher]

Wrong, Aargh -- the road win at IndSt raised WSU's RPI; it had been just below .60 and now it's well above (.6060 when I looked at Warren Nolan as I was typing this). How the rank shakes out depends on what other teams around the country do at the same time. But there's no question that road wins, especially against teams over .500 -- i.e., all of WSU's remaining Valley opponents, as well as whoever they play in Bracket Busters -- will raise the RPI.

Definitely need to avoid home losses, though, especially in the next two games against SIU and Evansville (the only two teams currently below .500 on WSU's remaining schedule).

[Aargh]

OK, I just looked at the rank before and as close as I could to after the results were included. The actual number may have improved, but the ranking of that number went down because of other teams who probably had games against sub-100 RPI teams and improved their actul RPI number more than WSU improved their actual number. That lowers WSU's rank, even though the actual number improves.

As the season goes on, a lot of mid-level BCS teams will be playing other BCS mid-tier teams with RPI's in the 80-100 range while WSU plays opponents with RPI's in the 110-150 range. That is going to continue to erode WSU's rank. It doesn't really matter much what the actual RPI number is. What matters is how many teams have better actul numbers.