2012 Bracket Busters Projections

[WuShock Reaper]

Only two weeks left before ESPN Bracketbuster Selection Monday. We have rounded the third turn and four teams have broken out in front of the other teams to create the "Leaders Pack". They are: Murray State, Iona, Davidson, and Oral Roberts.

Murray State (RPI #29) is still in the lead but has lost its 15 RPI point advantage over second place Iona and is now only in front by 5 RPI points now. Murray has two games on the road this week and should be able to handle both teams easily. However, road games are dangerous and who wouldn’t want to be the team that knocks them out of the “Ranks of the Unbeaten” as well as the “Media Darlings” of the 2011-12 season?

Iona (RPI #34) had a good week winning two games and will have only one game this week, which is at home against RPI #257 – Rider.

Davidson (RPI #45) remained in third place as expected. Davidson will have an great home game on Thursday against College Of Charleston (RPI #88). However, they will have to be careful as they also face RPI killer Citadel (RPI #337) later in the week.

Oral Roberts (RPI #47) had two good road wins, but not enough to make up any ground. This week they face two home games against IPFW (RPI #248) and Oakland (RPI #138). Not enough umph to help them out, but a loss to the first team would not be good.


TIER 1
Murray State - #29, Iona - #34, Davidson - #45, Oral Roberts - #47

TIER 2
Cleveland State - #68, New Mexico State - #70, Weber State - #73, South Dakota State - #75, Virginia Commonwealth - #80, Ohio - #81, Loyola-Maryland - #87, North Dakota State - #89, Wisconsin-Milwaukee - #98

TIER 3
Butler - #101, Kent State - #103, George Mason - #113

BREAKDOWN LANE (teams greater than 125)
Manhattan - #127, Utah State - #128, Coastal Carolina - #135, Montana - #139, Loyola-Marymount - #141

[WuShock Reaper]

TOP 15 GAMES AND POSSIBLE MVC MATCHUPS

1. Saint Mary's College (RPI #23) - West Coast at Creighton (RPI #20) - Missouri Valley
2. Northern Iowa (RPI #30) - Missouri Valley at Murray State (RPI #29) - Ohio Valley
3. Wichita State (RPI #31) - Missouri Valley at Iona (RPI #34) - Metro Atlantic
4. Long Beach State (RPI #54) - Big West at Davidson (RPI #45) - Southern
5. Nevada (RPI #72) - WAC - Summit League at Oral Roberts (RPI #47) - Summit League
6. Akron (RPI #76) - Mid-American - Metro Atlantic at Cleveland State (RPI #68) - Horizon
7. College of Charleston (RPI #88) - Southern at New Mexico State (RPI #70) - WAC
8. Drake (RPI #91) - Missouri Valley at Weber State (RPI #73) - Big Sky
9. Drexel (RPI #95) - Colonial at South Dakota State (RPI #75) – Summit League
10. UC Santa Barbara - Big West (RPI #111) at Missouri State (RPI #79) - Missouri Valley
11. Lamar (RPI #117) - Southland at Virginia Commonwealth (RPI #80) - Colonial
12. Valparaiso (RPI #119) - Horizon at Ohio (RPI #81) - Mid-American
13. Buffalo (RPI #121) - Mid-American at Loyola-Maryland (RPI #87) - Metro Atlantic
14. Indiana State (RPI #124) - Missouri Valley at North Dakota State (RPI #89) - Summit League
15. UNC Asheville (RPI #130) - Big South at Wisconsin-Milwaukee (RPI #98) - Horizon


Missouri Valley - 6 teams
Horizon - 3 teams
Mid-American - 3 teams
Summit League - 3 teams
Big West - 2 teams
Colonial - 2 teams
Metro Atlantic - 2 teams
Southern - 2 teams
WAC - 2 team
Big Sky – 1 team
Ohio Valley - 1 team
Southland - 1 team
West Coast - 1 team

[kcshocker11]

Please give us an undefeated Murray State

[1972Shocker]

Adds some importance to Wednesday's game at UNI doesn't it.

[shox1989]

UNI is very desperate right now. Their once stellar RPI has dropped to 30. It will drop more as they still have 2 games left against SIU and one against BU. They have dropped a couple of games behind the conference leaders and can't afford to drop any further.

Lunardi still has them on his next four out, BUT he stated this is a must win for them. If they lose at home to us he drops them from at large consideration.

You know they will be giving us their best effort in front of a frenzied crowd (they may even fill their place- I can guarantee you there will be more than the usual 2500 to 3000 there).

[AndShock]

Take care of business and there is no reason we shouldn't get Murray State.

[1979Shocker]

Here are the latest Jeff Sagarin NCAA basketball ratings for some of the BB teams and whether they're home or away.

Going by these, we'd be at Murray State.

Saint Mary's Creighton Wichita State Murray State Oral Roberts Iona Long Beach State Northern Iowa Davidson Akron

14 15 17 22 46 48 51 54 60 66

A H A H H H A A H A

[WuShock Reaper]

Todays (01/17/12) Bracketbuster Games of Note:

North Dakota State (RPI #91) at North Dakota (RPI #295)
Coastal Carolina (RPI #135) at UNC Asheville (RPI #133)


Commentary - *=Key Games

Two good games tonight as they are both on the road and are in-state rival games.

[Good News]

Am I the only one that can't understand how a 6-loss UNI team still has an RPI of 30? I know it's just an equation and that it's correct, but after looking at their schedule I see a couple of bad RPI losses and a bunch of good but not great wins. Having followed the RPI for years, it just doesn't seem intuitive that they're still up that high. If you showed me their schedule/results and asked me to ballpark it, I'd say 60-70.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/2460/northern-iowa-panthers

[_kai_]

Am I the only one that can't understand how a 6-loss UNI team still has an RPI of 30? I know it's just an equation and that it's correct, but after looking at their schedule I see a couple of bad RPI losses and a bunch of good but not great wins. Having followed the RPI for years, it just doesn't seem intuitive that they're still up that high. If you showed me their schedule/results and asked me to ballpark it, I'd say 60-70.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...-iowa-panthers

I think it's crazy they lose to Bradley, and only drop to 30 or what ever they are. I completely agree.

[ShockTalk]

Not that I'm a big fan of RealTimeRPI.com, but if you go to each of their pages, UNI and WSU, you will see that UNI has played 8 games against the top 100 going 5-3. WSU has played 5, going 2-3. I suppose the 3 questionable to bad losses by UNI are countered by the 3 more quality wins.

If the Shox win at UNI Wednesday, I think you'll see changes. Their ranking gives us another shot at a quality win.

Also notice the ranking of WVU, Temple, Northwestern, Dayton, and Memphis, all with 5 losses so far.

[shox1989]

Am I the only one that can't understand how a 6-loss UNI team still has an RPI of 30? I know it's just an equation and that it's correct, but after looking at their schedule I see a couple of bad RPI losses and a bunch of good but not great wins. Having followed the RPI for years, it just doesn't seem intuitive that they're still up that high. If you showed me their schedule/results and asked me to ballpark it, I'd say 60-70.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...-iowa-panthers

It is their overall Strength of Schedule which is still ranked #12 (before they played Bradley it was #5). They have only played one sub 200 team (Bradley). Once they play Bradley again and SIU twice, their RPI is going to drop.

UNI almost needs to win out at this point or their rpi will end up in the mid to high 40s by the end of the season and maybe worse if they don't get their act together.

[1972Shocker]

RealTimeRPI.com is projecting UNI to finish with an RPI of 62.

[KC Shox]

Am I the only one that can't understand how a 6-loss UNI team still has an RPI of 30? I know it's just an equation and that it's correct, but after looking at their schedule I see a couple of bad RPI losses and a bunch of good but not great wins. Having followed the RPI for years, it just doesn't seem intuitive that they're still up that high. If you showed me their schedule/results and asked me to ballpark it, I'd say 60-70.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...-iowa-panthers

If we lose to UNI, knowing Bradley scored more against them in one half then they scored against us in an entire game, it will be a complete FAIL on our part. Crush these clowns please

[martymoose]

If we lose to UNI, knowing Bradley scored more against them in one half then they scored against us in an entire game, it will be a complete FAIL on our part. Crush these clowns please

Agreed, we better crush them. UNI has screwed themselves by losing to last place BU, now all they can do is screw the rest (CU and WSU) by beating us. The Shox better bring their A game. At this point the Valley is looking like 2 bids at best unless someone else can win St. Louis.