Wichita State vs East Carolina Game Thread

[Cdizzle]

Not sure how this factors into the FT percentages, but when a player misses the front end of a one and one, it’s essentially a turnover and is really 2 missed FT attempts. I’m sure they only count the first miss, but I’d be interested in seeing some advanced metrics on this situation, if they even exist.

These would be really interesting numbers to have, but I'm not sure they exist. Could probably be parsed from the game logs with some effort.

It's still not a turnover.

[pie n eye]

Not sure how this factors into the FT percentages, but when a player misses the front end of a one and one, it’s essentially a turnover and is really 2 missed FT attempts. I’m sure they only count the first miss, but I’d be interested in seeing some advanced metrics on this situation, if they even exist.

Smh, it’s not essentially a turnover. By that logic any missed shot is a turnover.

[Kung Wu]

I was just smokin' some peyote, and discovered that life itself is just one big turnover.

[Shockm]

Well we beat OSU and OU because our team made free throws at the end of the game. I really don't have a problem with some substitution patterns at the end of games to get our best free throwers into the game. Grant and Eric are our best free throwers and Dexter is back who has been a good free thrower at the end of games. I do think that Tyson, JB, and Noah who have been inconsistent at free throw shooting are all excellent shooters and will be good free throwers as we go through the year.

Really our whole team has struggled at the line the past 3 games so I don't just put it on these players. I like JB's ball handling skills at the end of games. He doesn't turn the ball over and that is important too.

[Cdizzle]

He doesn't turn the ball over and that is important too.

Depends on who you ask.

[Shockm]

Depends on who you ask.

Yes, I wasn't including missed free throws into the mix. LOL

[Dan]

Smh, it’s not essentially a turnover. By that logic any missed shot is a turnover.

disagree. If the other teams fouls us after either a make or miss by them and we have to go shoot and one and one, we didn’t have a chance to run any time off the clock. If we miss the front end, it’s a steal for them. It doesn’t go into the books as a steal, but they get the ball back. Essentially a turnover. You can celebrate JB’s free throw shooting all you want, I would bet 3G shares my frustrations though.

[WstateU]

I was just smokin' some peyote, and discovered that life itself is just one big turnover.

Speaking of "turnovers"; I'm heading to Arby's, where "we have the meats" and the best "turnovers" this side of the Mississippi...

[wichshock65]

Lol. Wrong thread

[pie n eye]

disagree. If the other teams fouls us after either a make or miss by them and we have to go shoot and one and one, we didn’t have a chance to run any time off the clock. If we miss the front end, it’s a steal for them. It doesn’t go into the books as a steal, but they get the ball back. Essentially a turnover. You can celebrate JB’s free throw shooting all you want, I would bet 3G shares my frustrations though.

Am I taking crazy pills or are you just yanking my chain at this point?

The expected value of a possession that ends in a turnover is zero. You don’t get a chance to take a shot so you’ll never score a point. The expected value of going to the line obviously depends on the accuracy of the shooter but it’s not zero, regardless of who is shooting.

Again, by your logic, any missed shot is a turnover which is obviously not true.

When did I say I’m not frustrated by the missed free throws? I hope, and honestly expect, that our recent woes will improve.

[ShockTalk]

If HCGM would take JB out of a close game in the final minutes, because of his FTs, then I will also assume that if he does not take him out, then his other attributes out weigh the FTs.

JB is a horrible (I'm sure he'd agree) 11-22 FT over the last 4 games. He has also played 30+ minutes (31.75mpg) in those same games. His highest minutes previously were 28, 26, and 24. Again, I'm assuming there is a good reason.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

The overreactions are ludicrous. This was a conference game and we better get used to these types of games over the next couple of months, regardless of what the name on the front of the jersey says. I don't care if it is Tulane or Memphis, we will get everyone's best shot each night. The opponents have more tape to use in scouting, they are conference teams so they know the Shox tendencies in and out, we are pegged as a top team in the league and are ranked so it's a chance to make a statement, etc. I don't care if we win these games by 1 or 50, they only thing I care about is winning. To get freaked out by a miss here or there or a turnover is crazy. Just enjoy the ride.

[Stickboy46]

disagree. If the other teams fouls us after either a make or miss by them and we have to go shoot and one and one, we didn’t have a chance to run any time off the clock. If we miss the front end, it’s a steal for them. It doesn’t go into the books as a steal, but they get the ball back. Essentially a turnover. You can celebrate JB’s free throw shooting all you want, I would bet 3G shares my frustrations though.

Except the other team adds a foul to their foul total and 1 player picks up a foul. So not a turnover. An advantage was gained, depending on the player collecting the foul, it might be a bigger advantage than a single 2 points.

[Dan]

Am I taking crazy pills or are you just yanking my chain at this point?

The expected value of a possession that ends in a turnover is zero. You don’t get a chance to take a shot so you’ll never score a point. The expected value of going to the line obviously depends on the accuracy of the shooter but it’s not zero, regardless of who is shooting.

Again, by your logic, any missed shot is a turnover which is obviously not true.

When did I say I’m not frustrated by the missed free throws? I hope, and honestly expect, that our recent woes will improve.

Does time off the clock not factor into your logic?

[pie n eye]

Does time off the clock not factor into your logic?

No, why would it?

I understand what you’re saying. Teams facing a deficit often use the strategy of fouling the other teams worst free throw shooter because it gives them a chance to get the ball back without time expiring and potentially without the other team scoring at all or scoring one or fewer points than if they made a field goal. But that’s a strategy based on conserving time and playing the odds that whoever they put at the line will miss often enough to give them a chance to come back. If the guy goes up and hits both free throws then the gamble partially failed. No time expired and they get the ball back to try and score but they’ve gained nothing in terms of the scoreboard.

A turnover, on the other hand, requires no such gamble on a players ability to convert at the free throw line or otherwise because they never get a chance. No shots are attempted on a possession that ends in a turnover thus no points are scored. The defending team gets the ball back without risking the possibility of the other team scoring.

Let’s play a game of one on one. I will turn the ball over to you on 100% of my offensive possessions and then will foul you on 100% of your offensive possessions. I don’t care how bad of a free throw shooter you are, I will never beat you. It may take days but one of your free throws will eventually bounce in. I will never score.

Missed free throws <>= turnover. I feel silly even trying to explain this.