Erik Stevenson

[Cdizzle]

But he also had seven rebounds and was 5-5 from the line.

I think shooting 100% from the FT line removes 3 TOs, or something like that. Folks never did a really good job of explaining that fuzzy math to me.

[WstateU]

I think shooting 100% from the FT line removes 3 TOs, or something like that. Folks never did a really good job of explaining that fuzzy math to me.

It's easy...

[ShockerFever]

I think shooting 100% from the FT line removes 3 TOs, or something like that. Folks never did a really good job of explaining that fuzzy math to me.

When Morris Udeze is at the FT line, do you consider that to be a good way to find offense or no?

[Cdizzle]

When Morris Udeze is at the FT line, do you consider that to be a good way to find offense or no?

I consider it a good outcome from an offensive possession.

[ShockerFever]

I consider it a good outcome from an offensive possession.

Really?

Not sure many would agree with you. I'm not talking generalities; I'm talking specifics.

[Cdizzle]

Really?

Not sure many would agree with you. I'm not talking generalities; I'm talking specifics.

Most people being wrong isn't really my concern.

WSU is averaging 0.996 points per possession this season. Udeze is shooting exactly 50% from the free throw line. That maths out to 1 point per possession when Udeze goes to the free throw line, or .004 points ABOVE the average WSU offensive possession. Not 6 points below the average WSU offensive possession, as it is usually made out to be. And even that is ignoring that he sometimes makes the basket, increasing the points on possessions which end in an Udeze FT.

AND

AND

AND

again cuz for some reason no one seems to get it

AND

a player on the other team is given a foul. Which also counts toward the team total. These have serious ramifications.




It's ok to think that a possession ending in Udeze shooting free throws is a good thing AND be disappointed he doesn't shoot better than 50% from the free throw line.


Edit: OK, I got tired of this conversation. Here are the definitive numbers. If people don't like them, not much to do about that.

2020 Udeze fouls drawn resulting in FTA: 32
2020 WSU Possessions ending in Udeze FTA: 32
2020 Udeze FTM/FTA: 26/52
2020 WSU Points on Possession ending in Udeze FTA: 46
2020 WSU PPP ending in Udeze FT: 1.4375
2020 WSU PPP: 0.996 (-.4415)
2020 #1 Off Efficiency Team Gonzaga PPP: 1.183 (-.2545)


So, yes. Go ahead and give me WSU possessions ending with Udeze going to the FT line all day every day and call me an idiot.

[MadaboutWu]

Not to nit-pick but if Udeze goes to the line for a one-and-one it's .75 ppp.

[Cdizzle]

Not to nit-pick but if Udeze goes to the line for a one-and-one it's .75 ppp.

I probably should have split my post in 2. The main point is based on actual events, not predictive analysis. The actual results this season indicate that possessions ending in Udeze FTAs are significantly more effective than the average WSU possession, even if one continues to willfully ignore the benefit of drawing personal fouls.

[ShockAzs]

You KNOW it's in true Shockernet fashion when a thread about Erik Stevenson turns into a discussion about the metrics of Udeze going to the free throw line.

[WuDrWu]

What about Mo's launch angle?

[ABC]

file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip.jpg

[Shockm]

What about Mo's launch angle?

Are you talking about when he jumps or when he shoots the basketball?

[WstateU]

You KNOW it's in true Shockernet fashion when a thread about Erik Stevenson turns into a discussion about the metrics of Udeze going to the free throw line.

[ShockerFever]

Most people being wrong isn't really my concern.

WSU is averaging 0.996 points per possession this season. Udeze is shooting exactly 50% from the free throw line. That maths out to 1 point per possession when Udeze goes to the free throw line, or .004 points ABOVE the average WSU offensive possession. Not 6 points below the average WSU offensive possession, as it is usually made out to be. And even that is ignoring that he sometimes makes the basket, increasing the points on possessions which end in an Udeze FT.

AND

AND

AND

again cuz for some reason no one seems to get it

AND

a player on the other team is given a foul. Which also counts toward the team total. These have serious ramifications.




It's ok to think that a possession ending in Udeze shooting free throws is a good thing AND be disappointed he doesn't shoot better than 50% from the free throw line.


Edit: OK, I got tired of this conversation. Here are the definitive numbers. If people don't like them, not much to do about that.

2020 Udeze fouls drawn resulting in FTA: 32
2020 WSU Possessions ending in Udeze FTA: 32
2020 Udeze FTM/FTA: 26/52
2020 WSU Points on Possession ending in Udeze FTA: 46
2020 WSU PPP ending in Udeze FT: 1.4375
2020 WSU PPP: 0.996 (-.4415)
2020 #1 Off Efficiency Team Gonzaga PPP: 1.183 (-.2545)


So, yes. Go ahead and give me WSU possessions ending with Udeze going to the FT line all day every day and call me an idiot.

Thanks for the detailed analysis.

Obviously there is some facetiousness on my part when missed FT's by bad FT shooters are essentially TO's. That's why I carefully used the word "essentially". I'm not sure the concept or point that I'm trying to convey is really that out of line or very argumentative. Adding to opponent's personal foul count is a nice perk but it still doesn't generated automatic or guaranteed offense. Neither does a gameplan comprised of trying to get a 50% FT shooter to the line as much as possible. Only coming back with 1 point of scoring (if lucky) after giving up a series of 2 or 3 point possessions usually isn't a favorable outcome. When no FT's are made by a player that's not likely to make even 1 is basically giving the ball back to the other team without a good chance to score multiple points. Call it what you want. Get offended all you want. Bring it up whenever you want. But the point still stands.

[Cdizzle]

But the point still stands.

Does it? Cause it feels a lot like the data took 14 wrecking balls to the point and obliterated it. The data indicates that the possessions in question are more than 20% more offensively efficient than the most potent offensive team in the country. And that's without considering the secondary (sometimes nearly meaningless/sometimes game-changing) impact of drawing fouls on the opposition.

Am I somehow misinterpreting/misrepresenting the data? There are lots of ways to slice data to support an argument, so perhaps I am twisting it one way and you could twist it another. I'm open to that discussion. I think I've provided all the data for this discussion, but perhaps there is other valuable data that others could add to refute the conclusions. Otherwise, it's just hand-waving to avoid abandoning a previous position regardless of it being demonstrably/demonstrated false.

For the sake of total completeness, I believe OReb count as a continuation of the possession. There were 2 Udeze FTA possessions that ended with WSU ORebs, on which 2 total additional points were scored. Those points are not included in the data above. I didn't include them because some of the Udeze FTA possessions were probably on ORebs themselves, it started getting messy on what to call a 'possession' for the purposes of this discussion, and the inclusion/exclusion of those 2 points was statistically insignificant to the demonstration of the point.