2011-2012 Shocker Men's Prouty Ratings

[SB Shock]

[ShockTalk]

The only problem with the graph (besides me being dense and not knowing what 95% Conf means), @SB Shock:, is that a player can have a better personal game which the team lost than a lesser personal game the team won, and the player's rating can be higher with the lesser game. So a player can be personally having an up trend in his game, but if his team is losing during this, his rating could be going down.

[SB Shock]

The only problem with the graph (besides me being dense and not knowing what 95% Conf means), @SB Shock, is that a player can have a better personal game which the team lost than a lesser personal game the team won, and the player's rating can be higher with the lesser game. So a player can be personally having an up trend in his game, but if his team is losing during this, his rating could be going down.

I'm just breaking out the trends for each player from the '79 Prouty calcs that he lists. That being said I think '79 ratings actually confirms analytically what the anecdotal opinions in this chat room has been saying.

I'm still playing around getting it properly sized so it is not to small, but not to big. Plotted are 3 variables:

a. Individual game performance (Data)
b. Running average (Avg)
c. 95% confidence limits (using Student-T) - I don't know if this will be informative or not until the season goes on (it has a pretty wide range due to lack of games to this point) so I might get rid of it if it clutters.
d. Then on the far right edge is the letter grades for the individual Prouty grade.

[ShockTalk]

I'm just breaking out the trends for each player from the '79 Prouty calcs that he lists. That being said I think '79 ratings actually confirms analytically what the anecdotal opinions in this chat room has been saying.

I'm still playing around getting it properly sized so it is not to small, but not to big. Plotted are 3 variables:

a. Individual game performance (Data)
b. Running average (Avg)
c. 95% confidence limits (using Student-T) - I don't know if this will be informative or not until the season goes on (it has a pretty wide range due to lack of games to this point) so I might get rid of it if it clutters.
d. Then on the far right edge is the letter grades for the individual Prouty grade.

OK, I followed a., b., and d from the beginning. And now I know what "95% Conf" is (95% confidence limits using Student-T), but I still don't know what it means. However, that, too, is OK. I'm probably too old and too average. I looked it up on Wiki and just laughed at the jargon and equations it expected me to know. Guess I'm just fat and happy in my ignorance.

Now to my question. Do you see any problem with the graph based on the example I gave and how the Prouty is calculated as far as actually charting a player's up, down, or trend in personal performance?

[SB Shock]

Well there is no problem with the graph - it is just the dated plotted in a way that I think helps see what happening better in the Prouty.

As far as the Prouty formulation - idk. They Prouty basically weights winning as 25%. In the big picture if u were using prouty across multiple teams i guess it would come down to do you calue wins and losses - evidently prouty did. Ultimately it wouldn't seem to really make a difference here since the Prouty is being to used as a tool to look at the relative performance of wsu players. So the winning portion of Prouty is not really meaningfull as all player will either get the bump or won't.

[ShockTalk]

I agree, SB Shock, that the graph is accurately plotting the Prouty. I also agree with your answer as to it being a tool to view the relative performance of the players as to their compared efficiency as I mentioned in an earlier post.

My rub is that a player could have 4 games where he is statisically improving in his overall performance, however, because the team won the first game and lost the next three, his Prouty rating (and its plot graphing), along with the averaging line, would visually indicate that the player is getting worse each game. On the other hand, without the 25% weighting of the team performance, his Prouty rating, and its graphing, would visually show improvement each game with better numbers and an up trend in the line graph.

The other problem is assigning a letter grade to the graph that would indicate a player had an A game when the team won, then, in the next game, he played better, but got a B rating because the team lost. The player did his part, but the team didn't and his rating is penalized for it.

[1979Shocker]

Wichita State vs Alabama Birmingham Prouty Ratings

Player Murry Stutz Kyles Smith Ragland Hall Cotton White Orukpe Williams Anacreon Wessel Vautravers TEAM

UAB Game 0.377 0.476 0.363 0.277 0.429 0.434 0.416 0.064 0.289 0.128 -0.033 -0.019 0.011 0.409

All Games 0.428 0.405 0.402 0.366 0.352 0.343 0.342 0.274 0.217 0.208 0.108 0.027 -0.060 0.413

Grade B- B- B- C C C C D+ D- D- F F F B-

Team Winning Percentage: 0.600
Best game rating of the season
Best overall rating of the season
Played less than 1 minute

[1979Shocker]

Wichita State vs Cal State Fullerton Prouty Ratings

Player Murry Kyles Ragland Hall Stutz Smith Cotton Williams White Orukpe Anacreon Wessel Vautravers TEAM

CSF Game 0.424 0.441 0.581 0.567 0.286 0.181 0.103 0.375 0.176 0.065 0.242 0.163 0.000 0.459

All Games 0.436 0.419 0.3981 0.3977 0.395 0.355 0.319 0.244 0.241 0.215 0.133 0.068 -0.061 0.434

Grade B B- C+ C+ C+ C C- D D D- F F F B

Team Winning Percentage: 0.667
Best game rating of the season
Best overall rating of the season
Played less than 1 minute

[ky-mike]

Can't wait to see Joe's rating for the UNLV game.

[1979Shocker]

Can't wait to see Joe's rating for the UNLV game.

I haven't seen the box score yet, but from what I heard, it should come out to around 0.640.

Edit: He did better than I thought. I looked at the ESPN box score. His rating comes out to 0.715.

[1979Shocker]

Wichita State vs UNLV Prouty Ratings

Player Ragland Murry Kyles Hall Stutz Smith Cotton Williams White Orukpe Anacreon Wessel Vautravers TEAM

UNLV Game 0.715 0.473 0.482 0.487 0.440 0.219 0.420 0.174 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.524

All Games 0.469 0.447 0.433 0.416 0.407 0.347 0.332 0.241 0.239 0.210 0.132 0.067 -0.061 0.457

Grade B+ B B- B- B- C C- D D D- F F F B

Team Winning Percentage: 0.714
Best game rating of the season
Best overall rating of the season
Played less than 1 minute

[Kung Wu]

What's the highest Prouty rating for a single player in a single game that you have seen across all seasons that you have been tracking them? This has to be close?

[SB Shock]

[1979Shocker]

What's the highest Prouty rating for a single player in a single game that you have seen across all seasons that you have been tracking them? This has to be close?

Here are the best ratings since the 2007-2008 season.

Player Durley Kyles Hannah Murry Ragland

Year '07-'08 '08-'09 '09-'10 '10-'11 '11-'12

Opponent UMBC Florida A&M Indiana State Illinois State UNLV

Rating 0.564 0.713 0.650 0.717 0.715

[ShockerPhi]

Notice how Ragland has had a consistent upswing for the past 4 games? Any possible way he can play better? Lol. I hope he at least sticks with it.