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2019-20 Bracketology

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  • If UNI is getting an at large, then we are too. Despite how putrid we've played and our resume lacks any meaningful wins, it's still light years better than Northern Iowa. They have 4 crappy Valley losses, one of them to a 200+ team. They're hanging their hat on to one good win vs Colorado (who got taken behind UCLA on Saturday) and that's it. So as long as their name keeps popping around, then I guess I can be happy because there's zero chance they're getting an at large above us.
    Deuces Valley.
    ... No really, deuces.
    ________________
    "Enjoy the ride."

    - a smart man

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    • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post
      If UNI is getting an at large, then we are too. Despite how putrid we've played and our resume lacks any meaningful wins, it's still light years better than Northern Iowa. They have 4 crappy Valley losses, one of them to a 200+ team. They're hanging their hat on to one good win vs Colorado (who got taken behind UCLA on Saturday) and that's it. So as long as their name keeps popping around, then I guess I can be happy because there's zero chance they're getting an at large above us.
      Yeah, UNI has no shot after losing some pretty awful games at SIU and ISUr. I still feel like we are at the 11/12 play-in line right about now, but if we win out (a big if) and win at least one game in the conference tournament, we're in and I'm not gonna sweat it. Not counting on that though.

      I think a big key for us to feel safely in this season is for there to not be any bid theives from the following conferences:

      Mountain West
      Atlantic 10
      SoCon

      If San Diego State, Dayton, and ETSU all win their conference tournaments, that will give us a little more margin for error. If none or one of them does, we're gonna be sweating it out.
      "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

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      • good post

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        • Originally posted by Maizerunner08 View Post
          Well I’ll spin things a bit. UNI is also an 11 seed in the ESPN bracket. However, they most likely have to win out to get in. Lucky for us, we probably can afford one more loss and get in. Thank you, American.
          I've seen a few brackets that have UNI higher than us. Toss those in the trash. There isn't a single thing on the resume that you can point to that shows they have a better resume UNLESS you 100% base everything on their single 3 point win at Colorado while ignoring everything else.

          Less Good Wins (and a close enough winning percentage 4-3 vs 8-7)
          More Bad Losses ( 2 vs 0)
          Lower NET ( by 3)
          Lower KP (by 4)
          Lower Sagarin (by 27
          Lower BPI (by 26)
          Lower KPI (by 9)
          Lower SOR (by 8)
          Worse Average NET Win (152 vs 157)
          Worse Average NET Loss (114 to 52)
          Worse SOS (85 vs 98)
          Last edited by Stickboy46; February 24, 2020, 12:31 PM.

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          • Nm
            Marge: The plant called and said that if you don't come in tomorrow, don't bother coming in Monday.
            Homer: WOOHOO! Four day weekend.

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            • Nm
              Marge: The plant called and said that if you don't come in tomorrow, don't bother coming in Monday.
              Homer: WOOHOO! Four day weekend.

              Comment


              • Bracket Matrix update for this morning:

                WSU in 95 of 96 brackets. 10 Seed with 7 teams below before the cut line



                The one bracket without WSU?

                NCAA bracketology for 2024 from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.com. Our algorithmic models project all 362 NCAA teams and update daily.


                100% analytical site that also has Oklahoma state getting an At-large ...

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                • " Work to do


                  Wichita State Shockers

                  The most likely outcome for the Shockers would appear to be a seed in the Nos. 9-to-11 range in the NCAA tournament. That looks more probable than this team missing the bracket entirely, and it also recommends itself as more likely than the Shockers rising to a No. 8 seed (or higher). Barring a big 11th-hour push by Memphis or a bid thief at the American tournament, no remaining WSU regular-season opponent is going to receive an NCAA bid. That limits Wichita State's ability to improve its seeding. On the other hand, two victories in the last four games (say, home wins against Temple and Tulsa) might prove sufficient, even if the Shockers were to drop both games on the road (to SMU and Memphis).
                  "

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                  • All hope is not lost...however I think the only game we can afford to lose is Memphis. Every other game needs to be a win or the pressure will be on us to reach the American semifinals.

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                    • The SoCon, Valley, and Mountain West tournaments are all within a week from today. We have to hope/pray for:

                      - ETSU to win the SoCon title game (one week from today)
                      - UNI to win the Valley title game (Sunday afternoon)
                      - San Diego State or Utah St. to win the Mountain West title game (Saturday night)

                      These three results could be the difference between feeling comfortable and sweating it out. The other results we need would be for Gonzaga, St. Mary's, or BYU to win the WCC tournament (Tuesday night), and for UCLA and Arizona St. to not win the Pac-12 tournament.

                      Basically, there are eleven conference leaders ahead of us in the NET currently, and we need to pray that in those eleven conferences, teams ahead of us win those conference tournaments.
                      "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

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                      • Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post
                        The SoCon, Valley, and Mountain West tournaments are all within a week from today. We have to hope/pray for:

                        - ETSU to win the SoCon title game (one week from today)
                        - UNI to win the Valley title game (Sunday afternoon)
                        - San Diego State or Utah St. to win the Mountain West title game (Saturday night)

                        These three results could be the difference between feeling comfortable and sweating it out. The other results we need would be for Gonzaga, St. Mary's, or BYU to win the WCC tournament (Tuesday night), and for UCLA and Arizona St. to not win the Pac-12 tournament.

                        Basically, there are eleven conference leaders ahead of us in the NET currently, and we need to pray that in those eleven conferences, teams ahead of us win those conference tournaments.
                        Maybe, only if we lose to Tulsa or Memphis.

                        If we win out and add a win in the AAC toirney, I'm not sure we are gonna get bumped by an auto qualifier.

                        Teams like UNI ir ETSU... I could be wrong but if they tag on a bad loss in their conference tourney they are screwed.
                        "When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!

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                        • I like Palm's bracket better than Lunardi.
                          "When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!

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                          • Originally posted by ShockerPrez View Post
                            I like Palm's bracket better than Lunardi.
                            when was the last time you said that?

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                            • 43 in the NET today. Up 2 spots from 45.
                              "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

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                              • Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post
                                43 in the NET today. Up 2 spots from 45.
                                That's pretty astounding considering we didn't play today and one of our better wins lost on their home court last night in an ugly game. I don't get the thing.
                                Deuces Valley.
                                ... No really, deuces.
                                ________________
                                "Enjoy the ride."

                                - a smart man

                                Comment

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