Realistic shot at NIT?

[ShockCrazy]

We are 15-13. Take care of business and we finish the RS 17-13, top half of the conference, with a 10-8 record and a finish of 9-2. Of the 5 teams above us, three are NCAAT locks and two are bubble teams with Temple barely in and Memphis slated for the NIT but likely a NCAAT at-large team with a run to the AAC championship game.

So a conference with likely 4 and possibly 5 tourney teams isn't getting the 6th place team into the NIT....a team that finished the RS 9-2 and 10-8 overall I conference? And is coached by Gregg Marshall? And has the conference's most difficult overall schedule? And will sell out and be a great environment to sell to a national audience? I call BS.

If we finish the RS strong, take care of business in the AAC opening round & we are 18-13. Lock for NIT. Beat UCF (19-13), and our NIT seed goes up. Win in the semis (20-13) we enter the at-large discussion - would make us 12-2 last 14 with four road wins and 3 neutral court wins, & two of the neutrals being Q1. That's would be an at-large worthy resume.

Sorry to burst your bubble but we are championship or bust. With making the final and losing, we would be sitting at 3-7 in quadrant 1 and 4-6 in quadrant 2 and a NET likely somewhere in the 60s or higher. That's just not at large material. Not really even particularly close, there isn't a single team in the at-large discussion below .500 on quadrant two games. Edit: I lied there is one, Utah State who is 2-3 in quadrant 2 but also is 2-2 in quadrant 1 with a NET of 30, not exactly apples to apples.

[IndianaShocker]

My post was in regards to us being selected to the NIT. If we are in the at-large discussion, and play at-large level over our final 14 games we sure as hell will be in the NIT.

Notes...

#1. I said we enter the discussion with 20 wins. Never said we are in.

#2. I said in that scenario, last 14 games were at large worthy (likely even a loss in the semis would still be an at large quality resume over the final 14 games). In other words, over essentially the last half of the recorded results for 2018-19 we played at an NCAA tourney level.

[IndianaShocker]

[ShockCrazy]

I mean that's nice and all but it's just a statistical projection, one that's really weak since as of right now there is no projected NET rankings as there were for RPI.

[Shockm]

Sorry to burst your bubble but we are championship or bust. With making the final and losing, we would be sitting at 3-7 in quadrant 1 and 4-6 in quadrant 2 and a NET likely somewhere in the 60s or higher. That's just not at large material. Not really even particularly close, there isn't a single team in the at-large discussion below .500 on quadrant two games. Edit: I lied there is one, Utah State who is 2-3 in quadrant 2 but also is 2-2 in quadrant 1 with a NET of 30, not exactly apples to apples.

The NIT has guidelines but no rules. It is entirely up to them if they want to bend guidelines or change anything they want to. I'm not predicting that we will be invited or have a home game to SELL OUT but I'm suggesting that it is not cut and dry with rules. The NIT can do whatever they want to and they do care about money too. It all depends on the NIT Committee who they invite. Some years they will care about running things by rules, and some years they probably care more about finances. It just depends on which administrators are on the the committee.

[top20shock]

We are 15-13. Take care of business and we finish the RS 17-13, top half of the conference, with a 10-8 record and a finish of 9-2. Of the 5 teams above us, three are NCAAT locks and two are bubble teams with Temple barely in and Memphis slated for the NIT but likely a NCAAT at-large team with a run to the AAC championship game.

So a conference with likely 4 and possibly 5 tourney teams isn't getting the 6th place team into the NIT....a team that finished the RS 9-2 and 10-8 overall I conference? And is coached by Gregg Marshall? And has the conference's most difficult overall schedule? And will sell out and be a great environment to sell to a national audience? I call BS.

If we finish the RS strong, take care of business in the AAC opening round & we are 18-13. Lock for NIT. Beat UCF (19-13), and our NIT seed goes up. Win in the semis (20-13) we enter the at-large discussion - would make us 12-2 last 14 with four road wins and 3 neutral court wins, & two of the neutrals being Q1. That's would be an at-large worthy resume.

Great Post!

[kcshocker11]

Win out , win a game in the AAC tourney

[WuShock Reaper]

As a comparison, here is the 2018 NIT "Last 10 At-Large" Teams:

RPI	SOS	Team	Conf	Record	Conf	NIT Seed
68	28	Baylor	Big 12	18-14	8-10	1
70	37	Notre Dame	ACC	20-14	8-10	1
71	41	Washington	Pac-12	20-12	10-8	5
72	90	Oregon	Pac-12	22-12	10-8	3
73	101	Mississippi State	SEC	22-11	9-9	4
77	93	Penn State	Big Ten	21-13	9-9	4
86	26	Stanford	Pac-12	18-15	11-7	3
88	69	Oklahoma State	Big 12	19-14	8-10	2
94	40	LSU	SEC	17-14	8-10	3
95	76	Boston College	ACC	19-15	7-10	5

Here is 2019 Stats as of 03/04/19:

73

30

Wichita State

AAC

15-13

8-8

na

There is no doubt in my mind that WSU will at least be in the "NIT Selection Committee Room" if we win the last two AAC Conference games. Winning the first game in the AAC Tourney increases the odds significantly, while winning two games will make it a lock in the NIT, winning three games and we get a home game with a top 1 thru 4 seed, Of course, when we win all 4 games and bust some other team's Bubble, well, wah wah wah. Just say'n...

[Shocktoberfest]

I know the comments about running the table in Memphis are in jest, but are they? It's a crazy long shot. But to even be having this conversation and looking at the real possibility our team could go on that kind of run is simply fantastic. I am so proud of how this team has grown and turned this into a fun year. I've really enjoyed the ride. It's been a palate cleanser of a season. I love me some Shocker basketball.

[ShockerFever]

I'm also in the camp of NCAA/NIT or bust. Has anybody looked at any teams that have played in the CBI the last 5 years?

We would stick out like a sore thumb and NOT in a good way.

[FadedCrown]

NM

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

I'm also in the camp of NCAA/NIT or bust. Has anybody looked at any teams that have played in the CBI the last 5 years?

We would stick out like a sore thumb and NOT in a good way.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, just playing devil's advocate here, but no one--I mean NO ONE--pays attention to the CBI. So would it really hurt our reputation to get the freshmen some additional playing time?

[ShockTalk]

I'm also in the camp of NCAA/NIT or bust. Has anybody looked at any teams that have played in the CBI the last 5 years?

We would stick out like a sore thumb and NOT in a good way.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, just playing devil's advocate here, but no one--I mean NO ONE--pays attention to the CBI. So would it really hurt our reputation to get the freshmen some additional playing time?

The only way the CBI makes any sense is if HCGM basically sits MM and SHJ (less than 10 or so minutes playing time) to let the returnees play together against outside competition.

I really don't believe that will happen. Therefore, don't bother.

[ShockerFever]

I agree with ST's principle as well.

But for reference, here's the 2018 CBI field:
Campbell
Canisius
Central Arkansas
Colgate
Eastern Washington
Grand Canyon
Jacksonville State
Mercer
Miami (OH)
New Orleans
North Texas
San Francisco
Seattle
South Dakota
Utah Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley

Not only a NO, but a HELL EFFING NO.

[Shox The Revenant]

I agree with ST's principle as well.

But for reference, here's the 2018 CBI field:
Campbell
Canisius
Central Arkansas
Colgate
Eastern Washington
Grand Canyon
Jacksonville State
Mercer
Miami (OH)
New Orleans
North Texas
San Francisco
Seattle
South Dakota
Utah Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley

Not only a NO, but a HELL EFFING NO.

I agree. A CBI birth is a no-win situation. If we lose to the likes of a unknown, we'd be a laughing stock and I'd be very embarrassed for this team. If we win, then people will start saying oh how the mighty have fallen. HCGM would have to convince me that accepting a CBI birth is to ONLY give our young team more D1 game experience - I could see the value in that.

[WSUwatcher]

As a comparison, here is the 2018 NIT "Last 10 At-Large" Teams:

RPI	SOS	Team	Conf	Record	Conf	NIT Seed
68	28	Baylor	Big 12	18-14	8-10	1
70	37	Notre Dame	ACC	20-14	8-10	1
71	41	Washington	Pac-12	20-12	10-8	5
72	90	Oregon	Pac-12	22-12	10-8	3
73	101	Mississippi State	SEC	22-11	9-9	4
77	93	Penn State	Big Ten	21-13	9-9	4
86	26	Stanford	Pac-12	18-15	11-7	3
88	69	Oklahoma State	Big 12	19-14	8-10	2
94	40	LSU	SEC	17-14	8-10	3
95	76	Boston College	ACC	19-15	7-10	5

Here is 2019 Stats as of 03/04/19:

73

30

Wichita State

AAC

15-13

8-8

na

There is no doubt in my mind that WSU will at least be in the "NIT Selection Committee Room" if we win the last two AAC Conference games. Winning the first game in the AAC Tourney increases the odds significantly, while winning two games will make it a lock in the NIT, winning three games and we get a home game with a top 1 thru 4 seed, Of course, when we win all 4 games and bust some other team's Bubble, well, wah wah wah. Just say'n...

It's a different year, of course, but if this list is any indication at all -- and in my view it would be silly and stubbornly skeptical for the sake of skepticism to ignore it -- WSU is in great position, not just for a spot in the NIT, but for a 1-4 seed as well. Just take care of business in the games where the Shocks are favored, which would probably be enough; then put the cherry on top by picking off (probably) UCF -- a team with whom WSU matches up pretty well -- in Memphis

[Triticum aestivum L.]

Our rpi and NET forecasts go down about 10 spots with 2 more wins. Will likely go down again with another win over ECU. Add in a loss and we are below 100 in NET. Our SOS takes a big hit also. I don't see an NIT this year. Our recent record is good, but there are no good wins in there. The body of work is just not there.

[Aargh]

It seems like we'd need a NET ranking a long ways below our current 91 to get to the NIT. The NIT is selected by the NCAA, so their new toy, NET, will probably be heavily considered. ECU at home and Tulane on the road aren't going to help the NET much, if at all. Then a first-round game in the torney that looks like another game to dilute the SoS.

If we make the NIT, it will be because of name recognition and really pi$$ off some fans of mid-majors who will (possibly rightfully) feel disrespected because name schools get favorable treatment from the NCAA.

[WSUwatcher]

It seems like we'd need a NET ranking a long ways below our current 91 to get to the NIT.

Possible, but as Reaper noted above, the magic number they used last year (RPI) let teams in at #94 and #95, and one of them (#94) got a third seed. Of course, that particular team was from the glorious Big 12...

Still, the NCAA has never been noted for its reluctance to exasperate fans of teams in "mid-major" leagues.