AAC Conference Race

[im4wsu]

Using NationalStatistical Contest Ratings, I've selected the top 61 players based on their Context Points (there was a tie for 60th, one of whom happened to be SHJ) which would represent the number of starters in the AAC. The Rank is the overall National Rank of the player and the Points is the raw value of the Context Points calculated for that player. WSU would have 9 players in the top 60 (quality depth). I don't know that this means anything, but perhaps shows depth and overall strength..

SMU has the low Avg Rank and the High Avg Points which puts it first in each category.

Team	NoPlayers	SumRank	SumPoints	AvgRank	AvgPoints
SMU	5	1300	1418	260	283.6
Tulsa	4	1378	1093	344.5	273.3
Wich	9	3494	2424	388.2	269.3
Temp	8	2994	2150	374.3	268.8
UCF	5	2245	1317	449	263.4
Tulane	6	2781	1554	463.5	259
Conn	6	2885	1531	480.8	255.2
Mem	3	1443	765.7	481	255.2
Cinc	7	3764	1758	537.7	251.1
ECU	1	551	246.6	551	246.6
Hous	5	2895	1217	579	243.4
USF	2	1375	462.8	687.5	231.4
Totals	61	27105	15937.1	444.3	261.3

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 1/31

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	9	0	1.000	71.4	52.2	19.2	211.51	274.76	486.27	23.5	30.5
WSU	7	2	0.778	80.3	66.7	13.7	215.26	289.37	504.63	23.9	32.2
UH	6	3	0.667	73.9	66.0	7.9	228.57	244.98	473.55	25.4	27.2
SMU	5	4	0.556	68.8	63.2	5.6	219.31	254.11	473.42	24.4	28.2
UM	5	4	0.556	67.7	69.3	-1.7	256.81	199.13	455.94	28.5	22.1
UCF	5	4	0.556	58.8	56.9	1.9	236.11	270.54	506.65	26.2	30.1
UCONN	4	5	0.444	64.3	68.6	-4.2	241.81	257.19	499.00	26.9	28.6
TULSA	4	5	0.444	70.4	72.1	-1.7	246.51	198.69	445.20	27.4	22.1
TLN	4	5	0.444	72.1	74.1	-2.0	214.00	246.62	460.62	23.8	27.4
TEMPLE	3	6	0.333	62.7	67.2	-4.6	282.09	230.66	512.75	31.3	25.6
ECU	2	8	0.200	61.3	72.8	-11.5	268.68	214.86	483.54	26.9	26.9
USF	1	9	0.100	59.1	78.3	-19.2	284.17	207.84	492.01	28.4	26.0

[BOBB]

I think Cincinnati cemented at least a tie with last night's win. I still think their offense is suspect but that is like saying "Larry Bird ain't got nothin' but a 3 pointer."

[Jhook89]

Splitting with Cin would drop us to 4 losses. In that scenario Cin still wins the conference with 3 loses.

[BOBB]

Jhook89, I believe my post was written before the Temple debacle, but you are correct.

[Jhook89]

BOBB You are right. Didn’t see the date.

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 2/6

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	11	0	1.000	71.4	51.5	19.8	256.91	226.59	483.50	23.4	32.4
WSU	8	3	0.727	80.6	67.8	12.8	277.39	226.53	503.92	25.2	32.4
UH	7	3	0.700	73.4	65.9	7.5	263.27	209.52	472.79	26.3	26.2
TULSA	6	5	0.545	70.3	70.0	0.3	286.53	157.41	443.94	26.0	22.5
SMU	5	5	0.500	68.6	64.5	4.1	250.58	224.57	475.15	25.1	28.1
UM	5	6	0.455	69.0	72.5	-3.5	306.98	150.97	457.95	27.9	21.6
UCF	5	6	0.455	57.6	59.8	-2.2	320.87	184.42	505.29	29.2	26.3
TEMPLE	5	6	0.455	66.2	69.1	-2.9	342.98	169.90	512.88	31.2	24.3
UCONN	4	6	0.400	63.6	68.2	-4.6	283.16	215.79	498.95	28.3	27.0
TLN	4	6	0.400	72.5	75.0	-2.5	237.27	222.81	460.08	23.7	27.9
ECU	3	8	0.273	63.7	73.9	-10.2	284.29	196.56	480.85	25.8	28.1
USF	1	10	0.091	58.6	76.9	-18.3	303.61	186.21	489.82	27.6	26.6

[BOBB]

Looking like a 3-bid league. Catching Cincinnati seems nigh impossible. At this point does it make sense to hope for Cincinnati to win out other than our games and for Houston to win out other than their remaining Cincinnati game? Does it really matter?

[jdshock]

Maybe we'll just have to start out counting conference championships the way Creighton fans did.

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 2/12

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	12	0	1.000	71.8	51.5	20.3	290.53	185.05	475.58	24.2	30.8
WSU	9	3	0.750	81.8	68.3	13.5	288.50	209.99	498.49	24.0	35.0
UH	9	3	0.750	72.8	63.3	9.6	306.94	159.72	466.66	25.6	26.6
TULSA	7	5	0.583	72.0	71.6	0.4	298.15	139.69	437.84	24.8	23.3
TEMPLE	7	6	0.538	68.5	68.3	0.2	354.05	155.15	509.20	27.2	31.0
UCF	6	6	0.500	58.5	60.2	-1.7	344.08	154.81	498.89	28.7	25.8
SMU	5	7	0.417	66.3	65.7	0.6	335.44	139.24	474.68	28.0	23.2
UM	5	7	0.417	68.6	72.1	-3.5	327.70	125.82	453.52	27.3	21.0
UCONN	5	7	0.417	64.8	70.2	-5.3	326.74	169.62	496.36	27.2	28.3
TLN	4	8	0.333	71.3	76.2	-4.8	303.63	150.92	454.55	25.3	25.2
ECU	3	9	0.250	64.5	75.3	-10.8	315.77	157.27	473.04	26.3	26.2
USF	1	12	0.077	58.8	75.9	-17.1	351.86	131.27	483.13	27.1	26.3

Buckle up.

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 2/15

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	12	1	0.923	71.0	52.7	18.3	334.10	139.74	473.84	25.7	27.9
WSU	10	3	0.769	82.7	69.7	13.0	313.61	181.05	494.66	24.1	36.2
UH	10	3	0.769	72.4	63.2	9.2	346.27	115.29	461.56	26.6	23.1
TULSA	8	5	0.615	72.1	71.5	0.5	321.47	114.72	436.19	24.7	22.9
UCF	7	6	0.538	59.5	59.9	-0.4	343.73	151.01	494.74	26.4	30.2
TEMPLE	7	7	0.500	69.8	70.1	-0.3	394.93	109.69	504.62	28.2	27.4
UM	6	7	0.462	68.7	71.7	-3.0	361.00	88.28	449.28	27.8	17.7
UCONN	5	8	0.385	65.3	70.4	-5.1	343.72	151.32	495.04	26.4	30.3
SMU	5	8	0.385	66.3	66.0	0.3	348.13	125.00	473.13	26.8	25.0
TLN	4	9	0.308	72.0	76.6	-4.6	306.98	147.58	454.56	23.6	29.5
ECU	4	9	0.308	65.8	75.6	-9.8	338.28	130.19	468.47	26.0	26.0
USF	1	13	0.071	58.7	75.6	-16.9	383.41	97.52	480.93	27.4	24.4

[Cdizzle]

Saving for reference: http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.co...edia_Guide.pdf

pg 24 has tiebreakers

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 2/18

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	12	2	0.857	71.1	54.4	16.7	368.01	103.97	471.98	26.3	26.0
WSU	11	3	0.786	82.2	69.9	12.4	363.29	124.77	488.06	25.9	31.2
UH	11	3	0.786	72.9	62.9	10.1	374.48	79.12	453.60	26.7	19.8
TULSA	9	5	0.643	72.1	70.8	1.4	320.32	111.80	432.12	22.9	28.0
UCF	8	6	0.571	59.0	58.3	0.7	364.93	122.92	487.85	26.1	30.7
UM	7	7	0.500	68.6	71.1	-2.4	380.62	63.14	443.76	27.2	15.8
TEMPLE	7	8	0.467	69.1	70.7	-1.7	425.83	76.30	502.13	28.4	25.4
UCONN	6	8	0.429	66.6	71.1	-4.4	354.36	136.22	490.58	25.3	34.1
SMU	5	9	0.357	64.2	65.0	-0.8	376.92	94.33	471.25	26.9	23.6
TLN	4	10	0.286	71.4	76.0	-4.6	318.39	131.70	450.09	22.7	32.9
ECU	4	10	0.286	66.9	76.2	-9.4	349.18	114.64	463.82	24.9	28.7
USF	1	14	0.067	58.9	75.5	-16.6	410.75	65.95	476.70	27.4	22.0

The plot thickens.

[Cdizzle]

Remaining schedule for Top 3 teams.

WSU		CINCY		UH
TULH	14.68	UCONNH	14.51	UMA	26.18
SMUA	35.09	TULSAH	19.08	ECUH	3.34
UCFA	32.71	TULA	24.68	SMUA	35.09
CINCYH	42.29	WSUA	45.7	UCONNH	14.51

[WSUwatcher]

Back to the tiebreakers -- if I understand them correctly, and all three top teams win their remaining games except for a WSU victory over Cincy (not an easy task for the Shocks in particular, and SMU will definitely have something to say about it), the final seeding of the three 15-3 teams would be 1) WSU; 2) Houston; 3) Cincinnati.

That would be okay by me -- let UH and Cincy face each other in the semis -- and something of a surprise to the preseason forecasters (what's Houston doing in there?) as well.

[rrshock]

Houston is scary good. All 3 of these teams can take it to any team, anywhere and I'd like their chances. This is so much more fun than knowing the outcome of the MVC rave before it started.l

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

So, if my understanding of the tie breakers is correct, assuming WSU and Houston win out, this creates a three-way tie at the top...yes? At that point WSU would win the regular season due to their sweep of Cincy and Houston would be #2?

[Steeleshocker]

It would be a shared conference title, but in that case WSU would get the 1 seed by virtue of having a 3-1 record against the other teams.

[Dave Stalwart]

Don’t forget Tulsa is on a 5 game winning streak and solidly in 4th place themselves. I’m glad to have already swept them. Cincy may face them at their best this season.

it looks to me like Houston has the schedule most likely to win out. Shockers will need to be very consistent going forward to pull this thing off

[1972Shocker]

For those interested in the tiebreakers for seeding the AAC Tournament you can find them on Page 24 of the AAC Men's Basketball Media Guide. That guide can be found on the AAC Men's Basketball page under Additional Links.

Cincy (12-2) has UConn (6-8) at home, Tulsa (9-5) at home and are at Tulane (4-10) and at Wichita State (11-3).

Houston (11-3) is at Memphis (7-7), has ECU (4-10) at home, are at SMU (5-9) and finish with UConn (6-8) at home.

Wichita State (11-3) has Tulane (4-10) at home, are at SMU (5-9) and UCF (8-6) and then finish at home with Cincy (12-2).

Don't see Cincy losing any of their next 3 nor Houston any of their final 4 games especially with what is riding on the outcome.

The Shocks clearing have the toughest closing weekend of the season with a long road trip to Orlando to fade a UCF team on a Thursday, March 1st then heading home to face Cincy on Sunday, March 4th.

I'm sure the AAC brass is rooting for Houston to win out and for Cincy and WSU to win their next 3 setting up a Championship determining game between Cincy and Wichita State on the final day of the regular season. Either a sole Champlionship for Cincy or a 3-way between Cincy, Houston and WSU.

I suppose the only other AAC team with a chance to sneak into the NCAA Touranment would be Temple with a current RPI of 44. They only have 3 games remaining and currently are in 7th place a half game behind Memphis and a half game in front of UConn. They did not play well at home last night against Houston (at least in the 1st half). Temple only has 3 games remaining and they get a week off before they play again next Sunday hosting UCF. The then play at UConn and at Tulsa to finish the season. They probably have to win out stay on the bubble.

[Shoxcity]

UCF a sleeper to get in if they win a few in AAC tourney.

[1972Shocker]

Unless UCF falls to 9th or worse (unlikely) then yes, if they win a few (which I take to mean 3) games in the AAC Tourney they will get into the NCAA Tournament as the winnier of the AAC autobid.

More realistically though they are currently at 65 in the RPI and not sure how the committee would view UCF sans Tacko.