AAC Conference Race

[WstateU]

Y'all are disgusting...

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

WstateU ... you beat me by 1 minute. Once again, you are king of the meme's/jpgs/gifs.

[shock]

It’s all about controlling the tip. Some teams will play loose and sloppy like we have seen, and some will play us tight and we will have to grind it out to the finish. There can be no premature celebrations. We have to be unrelenting no matter who is on the receiving end, and maybe, just maybe, we can end this thing on top while everyone else is fighting for the seconds and thirds.

[Shocker_Power]

[BOBB]

Since I am responsible for derailing this thread that Cdizzle had taken the time to put together with some real stats, let me try and bring it back on track. I think Saturday is a "must win" for either team to contest for a league championship. Cincinnati has won conference games scoring 82 and 49. Can you imagine us winning a game where we score 49 right now? Thoughts?

[shock]

WSU is more of a 69 team

[FadedCrown]

Nice.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Wow, it's about to get real. We've had the easiest schedule so far, and we have the hardest schedule remaining. Buckle up.

Of interest...

KenPom refers to A rated and B rated games which adjust for home/away.
A is top 50 neutral site, top 25 home, top 100 away
B is 51-100 neutral site, 26-50 home, 101-150 away

Shox AAC schedule so far has included 3 "B" rated games, 3 unrated.
Saturday at Houston is the first "A" rated game.
5 of the last 6 AAC games are all "A" rated games.

Bring it!

[WstateU]

15-3

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 1/24

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	7	0	1.000	71.6	50.3	21.3	159.63	352.44	512.07	22.8	32.0
WSU	5	2	0.714	78.9	66.7	12.1	182.32	348.38	530.70	26.0	31.7
UH	5	2	0.714	76.0	67.7	8.3	182.36	317.01	499.37	26.1	28.8
UM	4	3	0.571	67.9	69.7	-1.9	213.63	268.58	482.21	30.5	24.4
UCF	4	3	0.571	56.7	52.9	3.9	182.88	346.89	529.77	26.1	31.5
SMU	4	3	0.571	68.7	63.6	5.1	202.70	294.34	497.04	29.0	26.8
TULSA	4	4	0.500	70.4	69.9	0.5	212.58	256.99	469.57	26.6	25.7
UCONN	3	3	0.500	66.3	68.3	-2.0	154.26	367.53	521.79	25.7	30.6
TLN	3	4	0.429	71.9	74.0	-2.1	212.50	269.01	481.51	30.4	24.5
TEMPLE	2	6	0.250	59.9	68.5	-8.6	280.64	260.79	541.43	35.1	26.1
ECU	2	6	0.250	60.4	71.4	-11.0	217.84	294.18	512.02	27.2	29.4
USF	0	7	0.000	56.7	79.9	-23.1	207.36	315.28	522.64	29.6	28.7

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 1/25

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	7	0	1.000	71.6	50.3	21.3	147.21	334.14	481.35	21.0	30.4
WSU	6	2	0.750	79.1	66.1	13.0	194.76	303.79	498.55	24.3	30.4
UH	5	2	0.714	76.0	67.7	8.3	171.63	295.54	467.17	24.5	26.9
UM	4	3	0.571	67.9	69.7	-1.9	200.69	252.05	452.74	28.7	22.9
UCONN	4	3	0.571	65.9	66.0	-0.1	173.28	316.51	489.79	24.8	28.8
UCF	4	4	0.500	57.4	56.4	1.0	217.29	283.85	501.14	27.2	28.4
SMU	4	4	0.500	66.6	63.5	3.1	216.12	252.35	468.47	27.0	25.2
TULSA	4	4	0.500	70.4	69.9	0.5	199.40	241.51	440.91	24.9	24.2
TLN	3	5	0.375	72.3	74.8	-2.5	199.42	253.46	452.88	24.9	25.3
TEMPLE	2	6	0.250	59.9	68.5	-8.6	262.73	248.02	510.75	32.8	24.8
ECU	2	6	0.250	60.4	71.4	-11.0	209.45	271.04	480.49	26.2	27.1
USF	1	7	0.125	59.6	79.3	-19.6	222.46	264.06	486.52	27.8	26.4

[Cdizzle]

There are 16 instances of AAC teams having 5+ days off between league games. None of those instances belong to WSU. WSU faces a schedule where 6/18 of their opponents are getting a 5-7 day break either directly before or directly after their matchup with WSU.

WSU also nets 7 fewer days to prepare for their opponents than the reverse. It's worth noting that the other team with no long breaks and the same prep day disadvantage has a non-conference game in the middle of the league schedule.

Cincy is the next closest in terms of prep disadvantage, and it's worth noting that neither WSU-Cincy game has any rest day differential. It's probably reasonable to conclude that most of this is simply the result of an unbalanced schedule and the desire to get WSU and Cincy on TV as often as possible. But that doesn't make it any less of a disadvantage.

Team	Opponent 5+ days off before or after game	Prep Day Differential	Instances of 5+ days off
WSU	6	-7	0
UCONN	3	-7	0
CINCY	4	-6	1
USF	3	-1	1
UH	2	0	2
TULSA	4	0	2
SMU	2	2	2
TEMPLE	2	2	1
UM	1	3	1
TUL	3	3	1
UCF	1	5	2
ECU	1	7	2

[MadaboutWu]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for breaking it down. It seems that a break after meeting a team, though, doesn't disadvantage that team but the following one (in fact probably a more crowded schedule before?). How many of the WSU games feature the 5-7 day break before we play them?

[Cdizzle]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for breaking it down. It seems that a break after meeting a team, though, doesn't disadvantage that team but the following one (in fact probably a more crowded schedule before?). How many of the WSU games feature the 5-7 day break before we play them?

I should have posted a bit of my reasoning here.

For example: Houston had a week off after playing WSU. I doubt that had anything to do with how they played against WSU. BUT: I believe it's still a fairly significant advantage in the context of an 18-game league race. Houston Super-bowl'd. They didn't have to turn around and play someone 3 days later with a good chance of a letdown.

As per your point about the "more crowded schedule before," the net disparity in prep days says this isn't a large factor, and the specific instances bear that out. In 3 of the 4 times this happens, there is zero disparity, and in the 4th, there is a 1-day disparity in WSU's favor.

2 opponents have 5-7 day breaks before WSU plays them.

[Cdizzle]

Updated thru 1/28

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
CINCY	8	0	1.000	70.4	50.0	20.4	175.52	302.51	478.03	21.9	30.3
WSU	7	2	0.778	80.3	66.7	13.7	210.71	285.88	496.59	23.4	31.8
UH	6	2	0.750	74.4	64.3	10.1	172.79	293.66	466.45	21.6	29.4
SMU	5	4	0.556	68.8	63.2	5.6	216.70	249.65	466.35	24.1	27.7
UM	4	4	0.500	65.4	68.8	-3.4	242.62	206.33	448.95	30.3	20.6
UCONN	4	4	0.500	64.8	68.4	-3.6	205.17	285.05	490.22	25.6	28.5
UCF	4	4	0.500	57.4	56.4	1.0	216.40	282.87	499.27	27.1	28.3
TULSA	4	5	0.444	70.4	72.1	-1.7	242.25	195.86	438.11	26.9	21.8
TLN	3	5	0.375	72.3	74.8	-2.5	198.21	253.44	451.65	24.8	25.3
TEMPLE	3	6	0.333	62.7	67.2	-4.6	278.23	227.14	505.37	30.9	25.2
ECU	2	7	0.222	60.4	73.0	-12.6	247.91	228.55	476.46	27.5	25.4
USF	1	8	0.111	57.4	77.4	-20.0	262.56	220.51	483.07	29.2	24.5