AAC Conference Race

[Cdizzle]

With the move to the AAC, WSU joined a league that made keeping track of the conference championship race interesting again. Unfortunately, it meant giving up the one thing I still really liked about the MVC: a true double-round-robin league schedule. With 12 teams and 18 league games, we are now faced with an unbalanced conference schedule, which can make determining a 'true' champion feel more difficult. I've tried to measure each team's intra-conference SOS so that we can track who was given hard/soft schedules to begin with; and as we progress through the season, who has hard/soft schedules remaining.

A short description of the methodology:
I used KenPom AdjEM ratings as the basis for schedule strength. I then add +/- a constant for Home and Away games. And then I floated the numbers so that the lowest value is always positive. The spread of difficulty remains the same this way, but we don't have to deal with an idea of a game having a negative difficulty value.

I'll update the base KenPom values and SOS values on days when AAC games are played.

SOS Total: Total Adjusted Value of Conference Schedule
SOS Played: Adjusted Value of Conference Games Played to Date
SOS Rem: Adjusted Value of Conference Games Remaining
Avg SOS Played: Average Adjusted Value of Conference Games Played to Date
Avg SOS Remaining: Average Adjusted Value of Conference Games Remaining

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remaining
WSU	3	0	1.000	82.7	60.7	22.0	58.84	431.76	490.60	19.6	28.8
CINCY	3	0	1.000	71.0	52.3	18.7	78.57	405.34	483.91	26.2	27.0
TULSA	3	1	0.750	75.3	68.3	7.0	71.18	369.58	440.76	17.8	26.4
UH	2	1	0.667	72.7	71.3	1.3	82.49	384.58	467.07	27.5	25.6
UCF	3	2	0.600	57.6	50.4	7.2	117.14	378.42	495.56	23.4	29.1
TLN	2	2	0.500	75.8	76.5	-0.8	106.92	339.60	446.52	26.7	24.3
UM	2	2	0.500	69.0	75.8	-6.8	119.51	331.14	450.65	29.9	23.7
UCONN	2	2	0.500	70.5	70.0	0.5	90.98	394.65	485.63	22.7	28.2
SMU	2	3	0.400	65.0	61.0	4.0	126.13	339.53	465.66	25.2	26.1
ECU	1	3	0.250	56.0	68.3	-12.3	91.66	383.31	474.97	22.9	27.4
TEMPLE	1	4	0.200	61.2	68.0	-6.8	171.53	334.81	506.34	34.3	25.8
USF	0	4	0.000	55.3	80.0	-24.8	118.89	361.36	480.25	29.7	25.8

Three takeaways that remained the same regardless of the method I tried:
1. Temple has the most difficult league schedule.
2. Tulsa has the easiest league schedule.
3. SMU has the schedule most unbecoming of their preseason conference prediction.

You can see why Tulsa is currently 3-1, why Temple is currently 1-4, and that WSU is easing into the new conference leaving a very stout back half of the schedule.

[ShockTalk]

You can see why Tulsa is currently 3-1, why Temple is currently 1-4, and that WSU is easing into the new conference leaving a very stout back half of the schedule.

Even this is an understatement.

Last 5 games:

2 home, 3 road.

One of the two home games is against 1 of the 4 teams we play only once. One can look at this as being the easiest of the 5 games and/or a trap game.

We play the team pre-season picked for 1st or 2nd twice. This is tough for both teams, but healthy and rested players may be important. We do have a 4 day break between the 3rd and 4th game of these 5.

Our other 2 roadies are against the pre-season #3 and #4. One could say that our 4 toughest conference games, based on who and where, are in these last 5 games.

Cincy plays UConn and Tulsa at home and Tulane on the road for the 3 games between our games with each other.

[Cdizzle]

That's correct. Roughly 42% of our schedule difficulty is in the last 28% of games.

[Play Angry]

With the move to the AAC, WSU joined a league that made keeping track of the conference championship race interesting again. Unfortunately, it meant giving up the one thing I still really liked about the MVC: a true double-round-robin league schedule. With 12 teams and 18 league games, we are now faced with an unbalanced conference schedule, which can make determining a 'true' champion feel more difficult. I've tried to measure each team's intra-conference SOS so that we can track who was given hard/soft schedules to begin with; and as we progress through the season, who has hard/soft schedules remaining.

A short description of the methodology:
I used KenPom AdjEM ratings as the basis for schedule strength. I then add +/- a constant for Home and Away games. And then I floated the numbers so that the lowest value is always positive. The spread of difficulty remains the same this way, but we don't have to deal with an idea of a game having a negative difficulty value.

I'll update the base KenPom values and SOS values on days when AAC games are played.

SOS Total: Total Adjusted Value of Conference Schedule
SOS Played: Adjusted Value of Conference Games Played to Date
SOS Rem: Adjusted Value of Conference Games Remaining
Avg SOS Played: Average Adjusted Value of Conference Games Played to Date
Avg SOS Remaining: Average Adjusted Value of Conference Games Remaining

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remaining
WSU	3	0	1.000	82.7	60.7	22.0	58.84	431.76	490.60	19.6	28.8
CINCY	3	0	1.000	71.0	52.3	18.7	78.57	405.34	483.91	26.2	27.0
TULSA	3	1	0.750	75.3	68.3	7.0	71.18	369.58	440.76	17.8	26.4
UH	2	1	0.667	72.7	71.3	1.3	82.49	384.58	467.07	27.5	25.6
UCF	3	2	0.600	57.6	50.4	7.2	117.14	378.42	495.56	23.4	29.1
TLN	2	2	0.500	75.8	76.5	-0.8	106.92	339.60	446.52	26.7	24.3
UM	2	2	0.500	69.0	75.8	-6.8	119.51	331.14	450.65	29.9	23.7
UCONN	2	2	0.500	70.5	70.0	0.5	90.98	394.65	485.63	22.7	28.2
SMU	2	3	0.400	65.0	61.0	4.0	126.13	339.53	465.66	25.2	26.1
ECU	1	3	0.250	56.0	68.3	-12.3	91.66	383.31	474.97	22.9	27.4
TEMPLE	1	4	0.200	61.2	68.0	-6.8	171.53	334.81	506.34	34.3	25.8
USF	0	4	0.000	55.3	80.0	-24.8	118.89	361.36	480.25	29.7	25.8

Three takeaways that remained the same regardless of the method I tried:
1. Temple has the most difficult league schedule.
2. Tulsa has the easiest league schedule.
3. SMU has the schedule most unbecoming of their preseason conference prediction.

You can see why Tulsa is currently 3-1, why Temple is currently 1-4, and that WSU is easing into the new conference leaving a very stout back half of the schedule.

These kinds of posts are a terrific pain in the butt to put together but they are a wonderful value add that keeps me coming back to ShockerNet. Thanks very much for posting.

[pogo]

Mike and Bob on the postgame last night even brought up that we were easing our way into the difficult part of the schedule. Nice job compiling this . Thanks

[Shockm]

Any road game in which we play like we did the first 5 minutes yesterday will be tough. But the games to especially beware of are road games at Tenple and even more so at Houston, SMU, and especially Home and Away Cincy

[Steeleshocker]

don't forget UCF

[WheatShock]

A slow start against UCF wouldn't be as bad as against other teams due to UCF's really poor offence. A good offensive team might build up a big enough lead to make a comeback difficult but UCF is unlikely to be able to get enough separation to hold a lead against the kind of runs WSU can make.

[Cdizzle]

Updated with games thru 1/11. Note that WSU has played by far the easiest conference schedule to date and has the most difficult conference schedule remaining. Probably not time to get cocky. But I do like how we're starting to play. That McDuffie kid might be a keeper.

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
WSU	4	0	1.000	85.8	60.5	25.3	73.30	431.40	504.70	18.3	30.8
CINCY	3	0	1.000	71.0	52.3	18.7	81.04	418.97	500.01	27.0	27.9
UH	3	1	0.750	80.5	71.3	9.3	103.57	377.02	480.59	25.9	26.9
TULSA	3	2	0.600	74.4	75.4	-1.0	115.26	340.94	456.20	23.1	26.2
UCF	3	2	0.600	57.6	50.4	7.2	120.24	390.59	510.83	24.0	30.0
TLN	2	2	0.500	75.8	76.5	-0.8	109.11	351.21	460.32	27.3	25.1
UM	2	2	0.500	69.0	75.8	-6.8	121.91	341.51	463.42	30.5	24.4
UCONN	2	2	0.500	70.5	70.0	0.5	92.87	406.33	499.20	23.2	29.0
SMU	2	3	0.400	65.0	61.0	4.0	130.40	351.07	481.47	26.1	27.0
ECU	1	4	0.200	56.8	73.6	-16.8	132.49	358.05	490.54	26.5	27.5
TEMPLE	1	4	0.200	61.2	68.0	-6.8	177.12	344.66	521.78	35.4	26.5
USF	0	4	0.000	55.3	80.0	-24.8	123.22	371.14	494.36	30.8	26.5

[Cdizzle]

Updated with games thru 1/15.

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
WSU	5	0	1.000	83.0	62.2	20.8	105.46	413.67	519.13	21.1	31.8
CINCY	4	0	1.000	72.8	53.0	19.8	96.15	415.66	511.81	24.0	29.7
UH	4	1	0.800	77.4	66.8	10.6	115.66	373.91	489.57	23.1	28.8
UCF	3	2	0.600	57.6	50.4	7.2	124.28	399.40	523.68	24.9	30.7
UM	3	2	0.600	70.2	75.0	-4.8	158.70	315.89	474.59	31.7	24.3
UCONN	3	2	0.600	69.8	67.4	2.4	123.34	386.48	509.82	24.7	29.7
TULSA	3	3	0.500	73.5	74.8	-1.3	157.98	307.91	465.89	26.3	25.7
TLN	2	3	0.400	72.0	74.6	-2.6	132.60	340.62	473.22	26.5	26.2
SMU	2	3	0.400	65.0	61.0	4.0	132.14	358.96	491.10	26.4	27.6
ECU	1	5	0.167	55.5	72.2	-16.7	168.63	336.33	504.96	28.1	28.0
TEMPLE	1	5	0.167	63.0	69.2	-6.2	197.56	337.66	535.22	32.9	28.1
USF	0	5	0.000	55.2	79.6	-24.4	165.98	341.01	506.99	33.2	26.2

[Cdizzle]

Updated with games thru 1/16.

Team	W	L	%	ppgOff	ppgDef	MoV	SOS Played	SOS Rem	SOS Total	Avg SOS Played	Avg SOS Remain
WSU	5	0	1.000	83.0	62.2	20.8	104.44	417.88	522.32	20.9	32.1
CINCY	5	0	1.000	68.0	50.0	18.0	134.37	379.95	514.32	26.9	29.2
UH	4	1	0.800	77.4	66.8	10.6	116.52	377.95	494.47	23.3	29.1
UM	4	2	0.667	70.7	70.7	0.0	178.67	296.63	475.30	29.8	24.7
UCF	3	3	0.500	54.3	50.2	4.2	167.64	361.39	529.03	27.9	30.1
UCONN	3	3	0.500	66.3	68.3	-2.0	152.60	365.30	517.90	25.4	30.4
TULSA	3	3	0.500	73.5	74.8	-1.3	158.64	310.94	469.58	26.4	25.9
TLN	2	3	0.400	72.0	74.6	-2.6	133.84	345.39	479.23	26.8	26.6
SMU	2	3	0.400	65.0	61.0	4.0	134.00	361.17	495.17	26.8	27.8
ECU	1	5	0.167	55.5	72.2	-16.7	167.28	342.06	509.34	27.9	28.5
TEMPLE	1	5	0.167	63.0	69.2	-6.2	201.26	336.13	537.39	33.5	28.0
USF	0	5	0.000	55.2	79.6	-24.4	167.52	344.81	512.33	33.5	26.5

[ShockerPhi]

Wow, it's about to get real. We've had the easiest schedule so far, and we have the hardest schedule remaining. Buckle up.

[Cdizzle]

Yep. We asked for it. We're about to get it. On the bright side, we do have 3 road games(these are hard) down, including 2 of the east coast trips.

[MadaboutWu]

The conference scheduling with the tough game back-loaded was ideal considering MM was getting back into game form. Other years you might want a more even distribution of harder and easier games.

[Cdizzle]

Maybe. It's still very concentrated, and we'll be lucky to go the rest of the season without any injuries.

[BOBB]

... easing in...leaving a very stout back half.

That's what she said.

[pogo]

Its all about how you finish.

[Stickboy46]

Per KenPom the AAC has the slowest aggregate tempo of ANY D1 conference when factoring in conference play only.

[AndShock]

Its all about how you finish.

I hope we can pull it out.

[ShockerPhi]

I hope we can pull it out.

It'll be long and hard, but we can do it.