2010 Bubble Watch

[SB Shock]

Numbering doesn't mean much until you get down to Bubble teams. This is loosely grouped by RPI.

Automatic Bids
1. Coastal Carolina (Big South Auto) HOST
2. CSF (Big West Auto) HOST
3. TCU (Mountain West Auto) HOST
4. SD (West Coast Auto)
5. ISU (MVC Auto)
6. Bethune-Cookman (MEAC Auto)
7. ORU (Summit Auto)
8. Rider (MAAC Auto)
9. VA Commonwealth (Colonial Auto)
10. Dartmouth (Ivy Auto)
11. STL (A-10 Auto)
12. Stoney Brook (American East Auto)
13. Bucknell (Patriot Auto)
14. Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
15. Kent State (MAC Auto)
16. Lamar (Southland Auto)
18. Minn. (B-10 Auto)
19. Southern Miss (Conf USA Auto)
20. NC State (ACC Auto)
21. Texas A&M (B12 Auto)
22. St. Johns (Big East Auto)
23. Milw (Horizon Auto)
24. Central Conn (NEC Auto)
25. Citadel (SoCon Auto)
26. Flor Int (Sun Belt Auto)
27. PAC10 (Arizona St (46-18, RPI 1, 25-7 Top 50) HOST

Auto Bid Not Final

28. OVC (Jax vs Tenn Tech)
29. SEC (LSU vs Alabama)
30. SWAC (Alcorn St vs Grambling)
31. WAC (Hawaii vs Fresno State)


At-Large
32. UCLA (42-13, 6 RPI, 14-12 Top 50) HOST
33. Virginia (47-11, 2 RPI, 20-8 Top 50) HOST
34. GT (45-13, 9 RPI, 14-10 Top 50) HOST
35. Miami (37-17, 8 RPI, 18-14 Top 50) HOST
36. FSU (41-17, 12 RPI, 15-13 Top 50)
37. Clemson (38-21, 17 RPI, 19-15 Top 50)
38. VT (38-19, 32 RPI, 13-13 Top 50)

39. Texas (46-11, 5 RPI, 18-3 Top 50) HOST
40. OU (44-15, 16 RPI, 9-7 Top 50) HOST
41. Texas A & M (39-19, 20 RPI, 10-12 Top 50)
42. KSU (35-20, 39 RPI, 7-8 Top 50)

43. Louisville (48-12, 7 RPI, 7-4 Top 50) HOST
44. UCONN (46-13, 24 RPI, 3-3 Top 50) HOST

45. Rice (38-20, 28 RPI, 8-10 Top 50)

46. Florida (42-15, RPI 4, 23-14 vs Top 50) HOST
47. S. Carolina (43-15, 18 RPI, 20-12 vs Top 50) HOST
48. Vandy (41-17, 13 RPI, 15-16 vs Top 50)
49. Auburn (40-19, 15 RPI, 18-15 vs Top 50) HOST
50. Ark (40-18, 10 RPI, 14-16 vs Top 50) HOST
51. Ole Miss (38-22, 26 RPI, 14-17 vs Top 50)
52. Alabama (37-21, 11 RPI, 17-17 vs Top 50)
53. College of Charleston (42-17, 27 RPI, 8-6 vs Top 50)

Bubble Teams
54. Wash St. (34-19, 30 RPI, 12-12 Top 50)
55. Stanford (31-23, 36 RPI, 15-13 Top 50)
56. Oregon (37-21, 29 RPI, 11-12 Top 50)
57. Cal (28-22, 38 RPI, 11-16 Top 50)
58. Oregon St (31-21, 23 RPI, 11-6 Top 50)
59. Arizona (32-22, 25 RPI, 11-14 Top 50)
60. LSU (39-20, 22 RPI, 14-14 Top 50)
61. La Laf (37-20, 40 RPI, 4-6 vs Top 50)
62. Baylor (33-21, 34 RPI, 7-12 Top 50)
63. UC Irvine (35-19, 45 RPI (5-6 Top 50)
64. Florida Atl (34-22, 37 RPI, 12-11 Top 50)

**********Break Point***************


65. NC (36-20, 21 RPI, 10-15 Top 50)
66. Kentucky (31-25, 35 RPI, 16-18 vs Top 50)
67. Elon (38-22, 49 RPI, 7-9 vs Top 50)
68. WSU (38-19, 56 RPI, 3-5 Top 50)
69. Texas State (38-21, 43 RPI, 2-10 vs Top 50)
70. Florida Gulf Coast (38-20, 47 RPI, 3-8 Top 50)
71. W. Carolina (37-20, 49 RPI, 6-7 vs Top 50)
72. Boston College (30-28, 42 RPI, 10-23 Top 50)
73. Liberty (42-19), 44 RPI (0-7 Top 50)
74. KU (27-26, 59 RPI, 6-14 Top 50)
75. PItt (38-18, 53 RPI, 3-5 Top 50)
76. NM (37-20, 54 RPI, 3-8 Top 50)
77. Tenn (30-26, 48 RPI, 10-19 Top 50)
78. Wash (28-27, 60 RPI, 11-18 Top 50)

80. Rutger (30-25, 57 RPI, 5-14 Top 50)
81. Troy (36-24, 61 RPI, 5-12 vs Top 50)

Updated the results of Tourny results as of 5/30/10 1300 Hrs

Updated the results of tournaments and added Host as of 5/30/10 1600 Hrs

[WSUwatcher]

Hmm...

So, SB, I take it you don't like WSU's at-large chances unless the selectors give them a boost because of Lowell's return?

[ShockerFever]

< 10%.

[SB Shock]

Re: Hmm...

So, SB, I take it you don't like WSU's at-large chances unless the selectors give them a boost because of Lowell's return?

I think it depends on how the committee handles the PAC10 and SEC for bids and then how some of the tournaments finish out [ACC, SoCon, Sun Belt and Big East] could really hurt the bubble teams.

The other uncertainty is how will the committee value WSU positives (1st in regular season, made the conference championship. Those might be enough to move them off the bubble and give them an at-large (or maybe not).

Frankly, I don't like the "what if" a team had a certain player. You don't know what may have happened. Look at today - everybody felt pretty comfortable with cooper going out there but it didn't work out.

[ISASO]

When was the last year in which we didn't have to worry about the bubble watch, were ranked in the Top 15 in the nation and had an at-large and a Regional hosting opportunity locked up at this point?

Whenever it was, I miss those days.

[shocker3]

When was the last year in which we didn't have to worry about the bubble watch, were ranked in the Top 15 in the nation and had an at-large and a Regional hosting opportunity locked up at this point?

Whenever it was, I miss those days.

2007

[WSUwatcher]

My guess

Without trying to anticipate or wait for the outcome of the many bubble games, which is far too speculative for my taste and something for which I simply don't have time, I'll enter my guess: the selectors decide that WSU's positives outweigh their negatives, and that the fairly effective return of one of their top three starters (which is potentially a big f'n deal, as silver-tongued old Joe Biden might say, in a sport where the NCAA format can allow you to get by with just three starters so long as you keep winning) is enough to put WSU into the field.

Having said that, I'll also admit that I won't be surprised if WSU is left out -- a little disappointed maybe, but certainly not surprised -- because they've left themselves plenty vulnerable.

Nor will I feel too much sympathy if they miss out, for the same reason. Some sympathy, yes; at least for everyone except Brian Flynn, whose academic irresponsibility has let his teammates down big-time in a year when the pitching staff proved surprisingly sketchy. (But not too much sympathy even there, because we aren't exactly talking about a proven stud, just a promising prospect who proved unavailable, as happens to lots of teams with somebody for some reason every year -- the task is to overcome such mishaps, and plenty of teams do.)

[SB Shock]

Re: My guess

Without trying to anticipate or wait for the outcome of the many bubble games, which is far too speculative for my taste and something for which I simply don't have time, I'll enter my guess: the selectors decide that WSU's positives outweigh their negatives, and that the fairly effective return of one of their top three starters (which is potentially a big f'n deal, as silver-tongued old Joe Biden might say, in a sport where the NCAA format can allow you to get by with just three starters so long as you keep winning) is enough to put WSU into the field.

Having said that, I'll also admit that I won't be surprised if WSU is left out -- a little disappointed maybe, but certainly not surprised -- because they've left themselves plenty vulnerable.

Nor will I feel too much sympathy if they miss out, for the same reason. Some sympathy, yes; at least for everyone except Brian Flynn, whose academic irresponsibility has let his teammates down big-time in a year when the pitching staff proved surprisingly sketchy. (But not too much sympathy even there, because we aren't exactly talking about a proven stud, just a promising prospect who proved unavailable, as happens to lots of teams with somebody for some reason every year -- the task is to overcome such mishaps, and plenty of teams do.)

You could have just said "they are on the bubble and I won't be surprised either way".

[shockball]

Nice work. However, the information sucks. We are what our record says we are. I will be very happily surprised if we get a bid.

[WSUwatcher]

Maybe

Well, I could have said it that way, SB, but I wanted to get a guess on the record. Besides, after you went to all the trouble of listing every team with a remote chance of getting in, I didn't want to do just a one-liner.

So you're right -- I believe it could go either way. But I think they'll be in. We'll find out soon.

[shox1989]

When was the last year in which we didn't have to worry about the bubble watch, were ranked in the Top 15 in the nation and had an at-large and a Regional hosting opportunity locked up at this point?

Whenever it was, I miss those days.

Actually I look at it from the other direction. Which is the last time we had to look at the bubble watch and sweat it out?

2006 and before that it was 2001.

WSU has usually managed to be solidly in or win the auto bid so we didn't have to worry about it. This is probably just the third time since 1987 that we have had to worry about the bubble watch.

We made it in 2006 and just missed in 2001, so we are 50/50 in our bubble watch teams.

[SB Shock]

St Johns is beating UCON 3-0 in the 8th

[shocker3]

St Johns is beating UCON 3-0 in the 8th

We need a 4 run rally by UCONN in the ninth! GO UCONN GO!

[shocker3]

Bad news: St. Johns beats UCONN 3-0. There goes another spot on the bubble.

More bad news: NC State is leading Florida St. 3-2 in the 6th. GO SEMINOLES!

[KC Shox]

SOS of 122, an RPI of 56 and 10 of our 19 losses coming against teams in the RPI 101+ and NO marquee wins, we will not be getting a bid. Please don't kid yourselves. The committee would rather give an at-large to a BCS team with a record barely above .500 and 30 or 40 something RPI than to give a non-BCS team a spot like us with a so-so resume'.

It's simple, we don't lose at home against Mo State and San Jose State and we are in. But those two bad losses eliminate 40 non-D1 wins and are horribly bad losses for a team with a SOS over 100.