Rivals Projections

[billybud]

Winning half of your conference games gets tougher when you play eighteen games against Top 25 teams....not like playing chopped liver.

Winning 50% of your conference games is a neat measure....teams that play maybe 2 games against a Top 25 team all year, should love that measure. Why? Because it doesn't measure how good you are in comparison to all teams on a national scale...but only how good you are in a very select group.

And teams that don't measure up as well on a national scale have a motive for limiting such a national measurement. If you are the Koi in a goldfish pond, it is nice to not be compared to the barracuda in the shark tank.

I understand your reasoniing.

Baseball America May 24...

North Carolina played in conference:

3 games against #1

3 games against #14

3 games against #11

3 games against #17

3 games against #18

3 games against #25


Fifteen games against teams ranked #18 and under....
18 games games against #25 or under...

And too boot, NC added in one game against #5 in OOC.

[Ashockalypse]

This means a lot less when you consider that all of those teams go in the season with the presumption that they are better than everyone else in the country. A presumption that has to be disproven by lots of losing. If the Shockers play in such a crappy conference then why is it we many times don't win the conference or the tournament and still wind up in the finals of a regional or in the super regional. This performance doesn't ever seem to earn our conference anything.

[billybud]

Actually...the "in conference only" vs "national" comparison is a form of norming.

In employment and college applications, when it was found that members of certain minority groups did not score the same on standardized tests as the majority group, the tests results were "normed". This would allow them to participate even though their scores were not as high as the scores of majority members.

If you scored a 80 on a test as a minority, you might only have scored at the 80th percentile of total test takers, but if your tests were only compared to the scores of like minorities, you might scale out at the 97th percentile.

Thus scores were not compared across racial boundries. Both a black and a white candidate might have a identical score of 97....with widely varying actual test scores.

[billybud]

Well...How many times does the conference come out of a regional to a super? That is a better measure.

To reach a Super Regional consistantly, the caliber of play has to be at a fairly high level as measured against other than conference competition.

Ig a conference gets teams to Supers with regularity, they probably have strong teams.

Of course, the odds are a lot better to reach a super when you have three times the teams in regionals as another conference.

[Ashockalypse]

You make an excellent point at the end.

[Ta town]

Actually...the "in conference only" vs "national" comparison is a form of norming.

In employment and college applications, when it was found that members of certain minority groups did not score the same on standardized tests as the majority group, the tests results were "normed". This would allow them to participate even though their scores were not as high as the scores of majority members.

If you scored a 80 on a test as a minority, you might only have scored at the 80th percentile of total test takers, but if your tests were only compared to the scores of like minorities, you might scale out at the 97th percentile.

Thus scores were not compared across racial boundries. Both a black and a white candidate might have a identical score of 97....with widely varying actual test scores.

So your point is that UNC is the 9th smartest white kid out of 12 crackers who took the test?

Again BCS schools love all the advantages of being a BCS school except the competition. If you can't finish .500 in your league then it's pretty clear that without a very lucky streak you are not going deep in regional play. Sure you are probably better than the team that went 18-6 in the crapier league but at least they actually TOOK CARE OF BUSINESS on the field of play instead of pointing to a bloated RPI that is simply the result of league association. I would say that UNC is Johnny Drama and not Vince this year.

[Ta town]

Winning half of your conference games gets tougher when you play eighteen games against Top 25 teams....not like playing chopped liver.

Winning 50% of your conference games is a neat measure....teams that play maybe 2 games against a Top 25 team all year, should love that measure. Why? Because it doesn't measure how good you are in comparison to all teams on a national scale...but only how good you are in a very select group.

And teams that don't measure up as well on a national scale have a motive for limiting such a national measurement. If you are the Koi in a goldfish pond, it is nice to not be compared to the barracuda in the shark tank.

I understand your reasoniing.

Baseball America May 24...

North Carolina played in conference:

3 games against #1

3 games against #14

3 games against #11

3 games against #17

3 games against #18

3 games against #25


Fifteen games against teams ranked #18 and under....
18 games games against #25 or under...

And too boot, NC added in one game against #5 in OOC.

This is the old, I'm good via association bullcrap.

10-15 against top 50 rpi, and most of those they get to use thier top 3 pitchers against.

So thats a 40% winning percentage, so your argument is "hey they got beat by good teams".

Hell WSU was 3-5 against top 50, so thats .375%. I guess if they just would have played 15 more games against top 50 and lost at the same pace then they would be a top 30 rpi team too.

I get sick of this bulls***!

On top of that the ACC/SEC sits on thier azzes during the start of the season and has everybody come down and play at thier place. Build up thier RPI, then sit around and have RPI orgies during conference and talk about how bad azz they are. Granted the top half of the league is good and North Carlonia is good but something tells me if they took 9th out of 12 teams they arn't the 21st best team in the country. Just common sense.

[Ta town]

Winning 50% of your conference games is a neat measure....teams that play maybe 2 games against a Top 25 team all year, should love that measure. Why? Because it doesn't measure how good you are in comparison to all teams on a national scale...but only how good you are in a very select group.

And teams that don't measure up as well on a national scale have a motive for limiting such a national measurement. If you are the Koi in a goldfish pond, it is nice to not be compared to the barracuda in the shark tank.

I agree, UNC measured against great competion and proved that they would lose a majority of the time.

[Ashockalypse]

Bud you are so completely full of it. Why is it that we only see you here when you are trying to rub salt in a wound?

[tru2thaduce]

Southern Miss winning CUSA tourney don't help our chances at all.

[ShockerFever]

This isn't an ACC Spin Zone.

Please turn around.

[billybud]

Salt? What salt?

I usually drop by at the start of regionals....you never know when my team and WSU will match up again. I do see what you mean though, since obtaining an at large bid would be surprising. And I am sorry. WSU is always an entertaining team to watch.

FSU has less than stellar pitching this year so there will be no super in their future, I don't think. They play NC State today in the final (VT was outed last night in a surprise).

In the ACC...the 5th seed is playing the 8th seed for the title...the top four seeds went out. FSU went "yard" a bunch to beat #1 Virginia and Virginia took out Miami to put FSU in the title match.

Maybe next year guys...It is always fun to talk to guys who know their stuff...and this board has the most baseball intelligent of any that I run across.

I'll be back come regional time next year. Go get 'em next season Shockers!

[billybud]

NC had 13 of their 15 Top 50 losses against Top 15 RPI teams....

Top 50 is another measure all together...

Yes...against the current Top 15 teams, North Carolina went 10-15.

Not great...but certanly not shabby. I bet there will be a bunch of teams in post season that didn't have three wins against Top 15 teams.

[Ashockalypse]

I don't give a rat's ass about North Carolina and never will and I thought you were leaving. Don't let the door......

[billybud]

LOL

Bu-bye then...I have a game to watch in two hours.

Re letting the door hit me on the way out....OK, thanks for sentiment but I think that the door is already closed.