Rivals Projections

[Veritas]

Projected: TCU Regional as a 4. Arkansas Regional is as close to Wichita as any... I thought K-State might have had a chance to host. Not sure what their facility holds.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/baseball/news?slug=kr-ncaaprojections052010

[SB Shock]

That projection says WSU is not at-large being a #4. I think they are #3 if they win the MVC tournament.

But that wouldn't be a bad draw for WSU. I think things get easier each step of the way if Lowell is back to be a suprise team.

[shox1989]

I am kind of surprised that they don't have OU hosting. I don't think Kstate has any chance to host (although Tim Weiser IS the chair of the selection committee -which is another reason that I believe that OU WILL be hosting).

I am also surprised that they show Ku with an at-large bid. Their rpi is almost the same as ours and they lost badly to us. There were also a couple of other at-large teams that surprised me:

Ku rpi 54, 27-24 div. 1 record, 5-5 last ten games -IN
Texas Tech, rpi 55, 27-26 div. 1 record, 3-7 last ten games -IN
Elon, rpi 51, 36-20 div. 1 record, 6-4 last ten games -IN

WSU- rpi 56, 35-18 div. 1 record, 9-1 last ten games - automatic bid

Based on these projections, IF we make it to the championship game and lose we might still get a bid. It appears that at least according to rivals, we are very, very, close.

[GoShockers89]

Kendall will upgrade us to a 3 seed if we sneak in this week. The sweep of DBU and ORU this week pushed the RPI up 9 spots, and it will likely rise at least 6 more if we win the tournament.

K-State blew their already miniscule chances at hosting when they lost two of three this weekend at A&M and got surpassed in the standings by OU. Sadly, OU has a shot at getting one of the last hosting spots if they make a solid showing in the Big 12 tournament. I say sadly because I hate their fanbase more than any other on earth, and I detest getting sent there for the postseason in spite of its proximity.

I would love to end up at the Fort Worth regional.

[SB Shock]

SEBaseball projection from last week has the MVC auto (at the the time ISU) going to Arkansas

Fayetteville Regional
1. Ark
4. ISU

2. OU
3. SE Louisianna

http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1085379

Last Five In: LSU, Texas State, Oregon State, Southern Miss, Pitt
Next Ten Out: Kansas, Middle Tennessee, Liberty, Georgia Southern, North Carolina, Boston College, Baylor, FIU, NC State, Wichita State

Don't let Kemnitz know, he might blow a gasket when he finds out WSU is not at-large material.

[Ashockalypse]

I am understanding about us not getting an at large if we don't win the tournament but for god sake what does kU have to say that gets them in the dance at the same time we aren't. Jesus!

[GoShockers89]

KU will need to reach the tournament finals this weekend to have a prayer. Getting swept by the Sooners was the nail in the Jayhawk coffin.

[ShockerFever]

We better not think we have a chance for an at-large. The team better play like it's season is on the line, because that's exactly what it is. We may have hit a bit of a hot streak late, which is always a good thing late in the season. We haven't had the toughest schedule at the end though.

I guarantee you even if we make it to Saturday that if we don't win it all, we'll be left out. Just not a lot of quality wins this year and LOTS of bad losses.



In regards to Oklahoma, they just clinched a second place finish in the Big XII. They're a Top 15 team. A decent performance in Oklahoma City and I'd like to think they are a lock for a host. A 1-2 record or worse and they may be on the hosting bubble.

I personally can only attend a regional within reasonable driving distance so with that said I'm rooting for a return trip to Norman - IF we should win the Valley tourney. That discussion is for next week though. We have to get there first.

[tru2thaduce]

I'm hoping for Ft. Worth.I've been to Norman for Shocker games more times than I can count and their park is garbage.Either way I hope we are a 4 seed with a chance to throw Cooper against the 1.Getting way ahead of myself but that's what I want to see.

[Hill Sitter]

This is not an argument one way or another in the at-large discussion, but other than those teams with single digit losses just about EVERY team has numerous 'bad' losses. This is the case every year.

[Veritas]

I am understanding about us not getting an at large if we don't win the tournament but for god sake what does kU have to say that gets them in the dance at the same time we aren't. Jesus!

Simply because WSU plays in the Missouri Valley and KU plays in the Big XII.

[ShockerFever]

This is not an argument one way or another in the at-large discussion, but other than those teams with single digit losses just about EVERY team has numerous 'bad' losses. This is the case every year.

It seems like one to me..

Care to compare a resume of an obvious at-large participant and WSU? If you don't like the "LOTS" of bad losses argument, you can try the lack of quality wins one.

[shox1989]

This is not an argument one way or another in the at-large discussion, but other than those teams with single digit losses just about EVERY team has numerous 'bad' losses. This is the case every year.

It seems like one to me..

Care to compare a resume of an obvious at-large participant and WSU? If you don't like the "LOTS" of bad losses argument, you can try the lack of quality wins one.

We actually only have one BAD loss (San Jose St). But we only have 3 Quality wins (4 if Ku could move up 4 places in the rpi).

Most bubble teams have the same problems. With our rpi in the mid 50s and just 3 quality wins, I think we are just on the outside looking in (kind of like our basketball team was this year).

We appear to be very, very close but I think we are just a little bit short.

[shox1989]

This is not an argument one way or another in the at-large discussion, but other than those teams with single digit losses just about EVERY team has numerous 'bad' losses. This is the case every year.

It seems like one to me..

Care to compare a resume of an obvious at-large participant and WSU? If you don't like the "LOTS" of bad losses argument, you can try the lack of quality wins one.

Actually here's a comparison. The Citadel is squarely in (using Kendall's projection- he has them as a 3 seed and does not list them as receiving their conference auto bid or as one of his last 5 in).

According to Warren Nolan, the Citadel has one quality win (they are 1-8 against the rpi top 50) and TWO BAD loses (they are 13-2 against the rpi sub 200 teams).

WSU on the other had is 3-5 against the rpi top 50 and 9-1 against the sub 200 teams (one bad loss).

Both WSU and the Citadel are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Citadel has a 38-20 (.655) record against division 1 teams, WSU is 35-18 (.661) The one area where the Citadel has a big advantage over WSU is rpi. Their rpi is 35 and ours is 56.

The Citadel is basically being rewarded in the rpi for playing a tough schedule even though they lost nearly all of their tough games.

Again I am not saying I think we are in at this point, but all of the bubble teams have their issues. One thing going for WSU is our strong finish, many bubble teams are like 6-4 or 4-6 in their last 10 games.

[shox1989]

This is not an argument one way or another in the at-large discussion, but other than those teams with single digit losses just about EVERY team has numerous 'bad' losses. This is the case every year.

It seems like one to me..

Care to compare a resume of an obvious at-large participant and WSU? If you don't like the "LOTS" of bad losses argument, you can try the lack of quality wins one.

Actually here's a comparison. The Citadel is squarely in (using Kendall's projection- he has them as a 3 seed and does not list them as receiving their conference auto bid or as one of his last 5 in).

According to Warren Nolan, the Citadel has one quality win (they are 1-8 against the rpi top 50) and TWO BAD loses (they are 13-2 against the rpi sub 200 teams).

WSU on the other had is 3-5 against the rpi top 50 and 9-1 against the sub 200 teams (one bad loss).

Both WSU and the Citadel are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Citadel has a 38-20 (.655) record against division 1 teams, WSU is 35-18 (.661) The one area where the Citadel has a big advantage over WSU is rpi. Their rpi is 35 and ours is 56.

The Citadel is basically being rewarded in the rpi for playing a tough schedule even though they lost nearly all of their tough games.

Again I am not saying I think we are in at this point, but all of the bubble teams have their issues. One thing going for WSU is our strong finish, many bubble teams are like 6-4 or 4-6 in their last 10 games.