Fire Todd Butler

[Kung Wu]

I don't disagree with you, I also think HCTB will get another year.

I believe the only players left from Gene are Mucha and Kirk so I doubt two people have much influence over a roster of 37.

Just curious which marquee recruiting class you are talking about? I assume you mean the 2014 recruiting class that was ranked #2 in the country. After this season there will still be 10 players from that recruiting class (assuming no early departures). Of these, only 3 or maybe 4 have received much playing time this year. Things can still change but a big part of that recruiting class was the JC guys coming in that will already be gone.

R-Fr - Travis Young
R-Fr - Jordan Boyer
R-Fr - Josh Debacker
R-Fr - Bret Fehr
So - Keenan Eaton
So - Taylor Sanagorski
So - Gunnar Troutwine
So - Trey Vickers
So - Chandler Sanburn
So - Tyler Jones

I didn't realize there were only two Gene guys left. Yes, I was referring to 2014. No idea if the remaining players from that class will be able to take a leadership roll and help get the chemistry "right". Just saying, it's possible that next year the financial benefit to replacing Butler will make more sense than doing it at the end of this year.

[im4wsu]

What does a season ticket cost, on average? If season ticket sales drop from the current "paid atttendance" figure of 2,400 to 400 or so, what does that loss in revenue total? If there are 40 home games at $8 each, that is $320 per season. Times 2,000 yields 640,000. Plus additional revenues from concessions/apparel and being competitive enough to host post-season events.

All other things being equal (administrative costs, uniforms, facilities, etc)

If Butler stays based on 400 tickets, we pay Butler - 128,000 revenue
Fire Butler, based on 2400 tickets, we pay Butler - 768,000 revenue Plus new coach
Difference is 640,000 minus new coach salary

If a new coach were paid $320,000 then we'd have to have a 1,000 differential in tickets at $8 average to breakeven.
If a new coach were paid $320,000 then we'd have to have a 1,333 differential in tickets at $6 average to breakeven.

[Ricardo del Rio]

He's getting another year no matter what, imo. I mean, this school kept Jane Albright around for 5 seasons and she was well under .500 for 4 of them. They're not firing Todd after 3.

Woman. Slack.

[1972Shocker]

Was perusing the Conference only stats for Valley teams after 3 series.

Clear to see why DBU (7-1) is leading the pack: #2 in team BA at 0.284, #1 in team ERA at 2.75 and #2 in team fielding % at 0.977.

Evansville (6-3) is 1.5 games behind DBU: #1 in BA at 0.285, #3 in ERA at 3.69 and #4 in fielding at 0.976

Wichita State (5-4) is 2.5 games behind DBU: #3 in BA at 0.283, #7 in ERA at 5.75, #5 in fielding at 0.974

These are the only Valley teams above 0.500 at this point. I just don't see anyone overcoming DBU. Whether or not the Shocks can hold onto to 3rd place is a big question mark. If they can sustain their hitting at current levels then the key will be what kind of pitching they get. In all games they have a team ERA of 6.03 so they have only been slightly better in Valley play to date. HCTB claims that they do not think Willie Schwanke's injury is significant but we will see. Reagan Biechler has been okay as a spot reliever but I think I heard he has some arm issues now. Outside of Schwanke the Shocks really have no one that has been consistent from outing to outing and the bullpen has been really, really shaky.

These next 2 series at Southern Illinois (4-5) and at home vs Indiana State (4-5) will go a long way towards determining where they will finish in the Valley. After that they play worst (Illinois State) and first (DBU) to close out the Valley schedule. Hopefully, they can sweep Illinois State.

If they can go 2-1 against SIU and 2-1 against INS and then finish 3-3 against ILS and DBU they would be 12-9. That might be enough to hang on to 3rd place.

With our pitching issues I just don't have any confidence that the Shocks will make much noise in the Valley Tournament. A 2-2 result there is about the best outcome I can see.

I think this kind of a finish plus the size of the buyout will allow HCTB to survive at least one more year. He may well survive another year regardless how the Shocks finish considering the size of the buyout. If they are going to show improvement next year HCTB and PCBK will have to get the pitching straightened out.

[Keyser Soze]

Exactly ima4wsu although the there are obviously far more financial components to include in the incremental analysis like concessions/merchandising/parking/fund raising/assistant coaches etc

Basically WSU needs to learn from mistakes made by others. Todd Butler is the Turner Gill of WSU baseball. I 100% believed it was time to turn the page on the Stephenson era, but how Butler convinced anyone he was capable of this job has amazed me going back to the first few months he was on the job. It isn't going to work for him at WSU for many of the same reasons Gill was not close to capable at KU. We just have to make sure we don't follow this mistake up by hiring Charlie Weis.

[OregonShocker]

I don't disagree with anything you said really, but I don't like this argument.

It's like your wife arguing that she needs a new wardrobe regardless of the fact that she still owes $10,000 for all the past clothes she has bought. "Regardless whether she's wearing those older threads, that money is gone -- so might as well buy new clothes!"

Sometimes the right answer is "No, baby, you get to live with the clothes you bought until you have paid for them."

I am not saying that's the case here -- that we should live with Butler -- but in general, I don't like that flippant argument for incurring new debt.

Perhaps a better analogy is of a store owner who shakes up his brand due to falling sales. When the new remodel doesn't bring in more, you don't go back to the "old" look, but you don't necessarily keep the new look until the remodel is paid. Sometimes you have to accrue more debt with a new makeover to boost sales. I think that's what we're looking at here. How long do you stick with the falling sales before you admit it was a mistake and start anew. I think we're there.

[Kung Wu]

Perhaps a better analogy is of a store owner who shakes up his brand due to falling sales. When the new remodel doesn't bring in more, you don't go back to the "old" look, but you don't necessarily keep the new look until the remodel is paid. Sometimes you have to accrue more debt with a new makeover to boost sales. I think that's what we're looking at here. How long do you stick with the falling sales before you admit it was a mistake and start anew. I think we're there.

I like it.

It's possible that Butler can get this thing cranking next year, and thus sales will increase. It's possible. The risk (getting zero value out of a $1.3M investment and increasing debt) vs the reward (to gain an extra X-hundred in tickets sold due to excitement of hiring a replacement) may not be worth it. On the other hand, it might be.

[1972Shocker]

During Gene's final year average paid attendance was 2,698 per game. So far this year average paid attendance is 2,186 per game for a difference of roughly 500 per game. Some of that is no doubt due to Gene loyalists walking away. I assume there were some season ticket holders that were irritated last year by the season ticket fire sale that happened after they renewed at full price. And, of course, a large part is due to the on-the-field product. At an average of $6 to $8 in average ticket revenue the lost ticket revenue over 30 home games would be around $90,000 to $120,000. Butler is making around $250,000 per year less than Gene. So attendance this year is off 19% from Gene's final year. I have no idea how much loss in net concession income that would result in. I think percentage-wise that would be more than the 19% drop in paid attendance because my sense is that declines in actual attendance appear to be far more than the decline in paid attendance. However, my guess is that the lost net revenue is probably less than the $250,000 savings in head coach salary. So from a purely economic perspective WSU is probably no worse off today then they were in Gene's final year.

So WSU is faced with trying to guess what they may facing the next four years with HCTB at the helm vs where they would be if they replaced HCTB with a Kevin Hooper or a Mark Standiford (or whoever else they would target).

I suspect that a chunk of the current paid attendance is from corporate sponsors and deep pocketed fans who want to maintain their seating priority for Shocker Men's Basketball. Whether or not they care that much about Shocker Baseball is uncertain. But that is just a guess.

I will be surprised if they pull the plug on HCTB at the end of this season. But then again I get surprised a lot.

[shockfan89_]

I like it.

It's possible that Butler can get this thing cranking next year, and thus sales will increase. It's possible. The risk (getting zero value out of a $1.3M investment and increasing debt) vs the reward (to gain an extra X-hundred in tickets sold due to excitement of hiring a replacement) may not be worth it. On the other hand, it might be.

I guess I will add another wrinkle, even if HCTB gets this thing cranking next year will people come out to support the program. I know I am plenty critical at times, but my butt is in the seats at nearly every game and I bring people with me and spend lots of money on concessions and merchandise. It seems there are a lot of folks on here and at the games that have written this hire off. I can't really blame them since we have a record of 72-86 under HCTB and there have been some games that are just painful to watch.

So my question is, will a strong finish this year put butts in the seats? Will a good record next year put butts in the seats? Will it take a 1st place MVC finish? Regional appearance? Can HCTB win people over or was the transition ugly enough that it will take someone else to heal the wounds and get people back out?

[Kung Wu]

So my question is, will a strong finish this year put butts in the seats? Will a good record next year put butts in the seats? Will it take a 1st place MVC finish? Regional appearance? Can HCTB win people over or was the transition ugly enough that it will take someone else to heal the wounds and get people back out?

The only thing I know about college sports is that winning fixes everything.

[shockfan89_]

I agree but what level of winning and how fast? Does a 3rd place finish and 12-9 in the MVC constitute winning? Or do we need 40 wins, a 1st place finish, and a regional berth to equal winning? I believe it is the latter.

[im4wsu]

I suspect that a chunk of the current paid attendance is from corporate sponsors and deep pocketed fans who want to maintain their seating priority for Shocker Men's Basketball. Whether or not they care that much about Shocker Baseball is uncertain. But that is just a guess.

These donors can simply move their money over to MBB and maintain the priority points. There certainly wouldn't be any reason for these people to "protect" their BB seating location with big bucks.

The key question is: how many $$$ in season tickets/donations will be lost if no change is made and how many $$$/donations will be recovered from those already lost to date?

[1972Shocker]

These donors can simply move their money over to MBB and maintain the priority points. There certainly wouldn't be any reason for these people to "protect" their BB seating location with big bucks.

The key question is: how many $$$ in season tickets/donations will be lost if no change is made and how many $$$/donations will be recovered from those already lost to date?

I am closely acquainted with owner of the business that has been the lead sponsor of the Volleyball 101 dinner for the past several years. He and Lambo have become very good friends and he has now totally bought in to Lambo's VB program. However, when I talked to him the 1st year he sponsored the VB101 dinner he told me that he didn't really follow the VB program and his business is not the kind that would really benefit from any advertising or goodwill associated with that sponsorship. He initially got involved in that for one and only one reason. He had men's basketball tickets in the upper reaches of Koch Arena. However, his business had become very successful and he now had the wherewithal to afford to improve his seating if he could. He approached WSU to see what he could do to secure better seats. WSU said they were looking for a new lead sponsor for the VB 101 dinner which would cost $5,000 at that time. (May have gone up since). He signed on to that and the following season he went from the nosebleed seats in the corner to center court seats in the lower part of the upper bowl. He may have moved on down into the lower bowl since then I am not sure. As I said he and Lambo have become good friends and he is a big supporter of the VB program but improving his men's basketball seating was his sole motivation for getting involved in that initially.

With men's basketball being the financial bell cow of this athletic program just about any money you contribute to any other sport is a contribution to men's basketball. I contribute $1,000 to the track & field program that is $1,000 less that men's basketball has to subsidize. There was a reason WSU amended their priority point system a few year's back to include contributions of any kind to WSU, athletic related or otherwise. Don't kid yourself, WSU is leveraging the success of the Men's basketball program for all it's worth in their fund raising efforts. Another reason 3G is worth his big contract.

That is not the only example of WSU "directing" funds to where they need them. When WSU was having difficulty raising the money to complete Phase II of the improvements to Eck Stadium under the Building Excellence for the Student-Athlete campaign started by Jim Schaus they ended up giving the students and extension on their men's basketball ticket deal in exchange for letting them use some of the student fees to fund those baseball facility improvements.

Obviously, keeping the men's basketball program healthy is of the utmost importance to the overall success of WSU athletics.

[xazshox]

Shocker Fielding %

I see that "Tham" has taken exception to my comment about WSU's fielding % of 0.968 being excellent. Someone else quotes WSU's fielding % in MVC games at 0.974. I checked the MVC website & it's shown as 0.968 which is, of course, for a limited no of games compared to the whole season. Looking at WSU's all-time best fielding %'s on GoShockers.com, the 9th best all-time was 0.969 set in 1999 & tied again in 2006. Perhaps I should have put this in a different perspective because as of last Sun, WSU had 5 frosh in the starting lineup. 0.969 for a team starting 5 frosh is really excellent & especially when compared to past Shocker teams. The other thing about it is that this has been a team in flux during the season so a lot of different players have been tried at various positions in order to get to this point in the season.

[1972Shocker]

Fielding % is probably one of the less valuable metrics in baseball. You can have a 1.000 fielding % but not have very good range. You can field if you can get to it but you don't get to that many balls. Nor does in measure a player's or team's arms strength that might inhibit teams from taking an extra base whenever they can, are allowing more infield hits, are miss out on more double plays.

So you could have a team fielding 1.000% but who are slow with poor range and have weak arms. Worst case is a team that is slow with poor range, weak arms and poor baseball IQ even though they are sure handed on the balls they can get to.

Here is an article that discusses the shortcoming of fielding %:

http://www.browndailyherald.com/2013/04/16/sabermetrics-fielding-percentage-and-error-dont-tell-whole-story/

Compared to hitting and even pitching, quantifying fielding is still largely a mystery in the statistical world — and that’s before considering more subtle nuances like catchers’ pitch framing techniques and how defensive shifts move fielders out of their normal positions. I don’t know what the magic bullet is for fixing it, but you can’t do much worse than the ones you’ll find on the backs of baseball cards.

Seems like good (or bad) defense is kind of like pornography. It is hard to define or quantify but you know it when you see it.