NCAA 2012 Qualifiers and Bubble Watch

[SB Shock]

how has CUSA robbed a bid?

Either Memphis or UAB will get their Auto Bid if I understand their format. Neither team would get an at-large bid if they did not get the auto-bid with their RPI (Memphis 72, UAB 106). CUSA was pretty much a lock for 2 bids (Rice and UCF), but now they will get 3, therefore stealing one of the at-large slots.

[Ta town]

Right, I didn't realize they were pool play, so the scores I saw today I thought were the teams left.

[WSUwatcher]

Baseball America take on the MVC

Saw that earlier, SB, and although Aaron Fitt is also not on the selection committee, thank goodness, it illustrates the "thinking," if it can be called that, of the stoneheads who inhabit the sportswriting world and, unfortunately, probably some of those who are on the committee.

"The Valley won't be a four-bid league?" Why the hell not? If the Valley has three teams whose profiles place them among the 35 top at-large candidates, and none of the three wins the automatic bid, then the Valley is by definition a four bid league if the process works as it's supposed to, because all of them will get in. There's only a problem if people start looking at leagues and names instead of teams solely on their own merits, which is the way it's supposed to work. Unfortunately, to the extent that the practice of mentally assigning bids to leagues instead of teams (which in a just world would be grounds for ejection from the committee the following year) infects the selectors as it has Baseball America, what happens is that good, deep leagues with less fancy brand names get shortchanged.

Of course, that brings us back to the solution I've mentioned elsewhere: don't screw up when it counts and put yourself in position to be the team that gets shortchanged, but unfortunately this year's Shocks missed that memo.

[SB Shock]

"The Valley won't be a four-bid league?" Why the hell not?

Well, assuming Indy State or WSU gets a bid MVC will unofficially get a 4 teams (CU, SWMO, Indy State/WSU, DBU).

[shox1989]

Saw that earlier, SB, and although Aaron Fitt is also not on the selection committee, thank goodness, it illustrates the "thinking," if it can be called that, of the stoneheads who inhabit the sportswriting world and, unfortunately, probably some of those who are on the committee.

"The Valley won't be a four-bid league?" Why the hell not? If the Valley has three teams whose profiles place them among the 35 top at-large candidates, and none of the three wins the automatic bid, then the Valley is by definition a four bid league if the process works as it's supposed to, because all of them will get in. There's only a problem if people start looking at leagues and names instead of teams solely on their own merits, which is the way it's supposed to work. Unfortunately, to the extent that the practice of mentally assigning bids to leagues instead of teams (which in a just world would be grounds for ejection from the committee the following year) infects the selectors as it has Baseball America, what happens is that good, deep leagues with less fancy brand names get shortchanged.

Of course, that brings us back to the solution I've mentioned elsewhere: don't screw up when it counts and put yourself in position to be the team that gets shortchanged, but unfortunately this year's Shocks missed that memo.

There were many pundits in 2006 that said the same thing about the Valley getting 4 bids in basketball. I still don't think WSU will get a bid, but being the #3 team in the #5 conference with a rpi of #43 and a SOS of #33 I guess means there is still a remote chance. But every time I hear a conference steals a bid (CUSA is the latest) I think our chance all but disappears.

I just wish WSU had managed to win even one game in Springfield. I would feel a lot more hopeful.

[WSUwatcher]

Good point, SB -- so let's "drive for five!"

Seriously, it's hard for me to picture both IndSt and WSU getting in -- although if they're both among the top 35 at-large candidates, in theory they should -- and I can't imagine the selectors picking the Shocks over the regular season champs (who also won the head-to-head series) based on a minute RPI advantage. But this BS about the Valley being an X-bid league just annoys me.

[ShockerFever]

Baseball America take on the MVC

I typically like Aaron Fitt but he does show some holes here. Can somebody ask him if teams earn bids or conferences earn bids? And if he says that conferences earn bids, can somebody explain to him what the 5th best conference in the land does for him? Or does the Valley lose 5 spots automatically in the style department?

Again, he can make a case against WSU all he wants. But he's gotta do better than the "conference won't get 4 bids" line. Dig deeper there, Mr. Fitt.

[KC Shox]

Seriously, we still got folks here thinking we have a chance? Lay off the pipe people.

[SB Shock]

Seriously, we still got folks here thinking we have a chance? Lay off the pipe people.

Oh come Mr. "Next Year Pumper", have some faith.

[shock10]

At large? 9 from ACC, 9 from SEC, 5 from PAC 12, 4 from big 12, 3 from MVC, big east 1, Big West 1, CUSA 3, Independent 1, Southern 2, Southland 2, WCC 2, WAC 1 that's 43 for what 34 bids? So just knock out 9 and WSU is in.

[SB Shock]

No. 76 Mizzou beats OU for the B12. B12 steals an at-large bid.

[SB Shock]

NCAA released host sites

Baton Rouge, LA (LSU)
Charlottesville, VA (Virginia)
Chapel Hill, NC (North Carolina)
Columbia, SC (South Carolina)
College Station, TX (Texas A&M)
Coral Gables, FL (Miami)
Eugene, OR (Oregon)
Gainesville, FL (Florida)
Gary, IN (Purdue)
Houston, TX (Rice)
Lexington, KY (Kentucky)
Los Angeles, CA (UCLA)
Palo Alto, CA (Stanford)
Raleigh, NC (NC State)
Tucson, AZ (Arizona)
Tallahassee, FL (Florida State)
Waco, TX (Baylor)

No WSU. I used to take that week off for regionals, but WSU quit hosting them for some reason.

[shox1989]

No. 76 Mizzou beats OU for the B12. B12 steals an at-large bid.

I think with all of these upsets, Indy State may have to start worrying too. The bubble is getting awfully small.

[SB Shock]

Down to 20 spots open (Miss. st wins SEC). Using the good Dr. list

Locks
1. Fullerton
2. Central Florida
3. Oregon St.
4. Arkansas

Very Likely
5. Clemson
6. TCU
7. Missippi St. (just won SEC)
8. Pepperdine
9. San Diego

Expected
10. East Carolina
11. DBU
12. SWMO
13. New Mexico st

Fighting for At-large
14. Wake Forest
15. Texas
16. Mich St.
17. Texas
18. OU
19. LBS
20. Tulane
21. WSU
22. ISUB
23. Mississippi
24. Vanderbilt
25. Appy State
26. Charleston
27. Sam Houston St.
28. SE Louisiana

[shock10]

You have texas twice do they get two chance or two bids ha ha