NCAA 2012 Qualifiers and Bubble Watch

[shox1989]

Also I believe Fullerton got the auto bid from the Big West so that should open up one more.

[shox1989]

If I am counting right if they just went by rpi and nothing else (of course they don't) the cut off would be #45. 34 at large + 10 auto-bids (in top 41) + ASu ineligible = 45. And actually #46 is another auto-bid.

This could be very close.

[shock10]

Fullerton, Pepperdine got auto's along with Miss St. That leaves 10 bids for the fighting group of 14 I like it.

Down to 20 spots open (Miss. st wins SEC). Using the good Dr. list

Locks
1. Fullerton
2. Central Florida
3. Oregon St.
4. Arkansas

Very Likely
5. Clemson
6. TCU
7. Missippi St. (just won SEC)
8. Pepperdine
9. San Diego

Expected
10. East Carolina
11. DBU
12. SWMO
13. New Mexico st

Fighting for At-large
14. Wake Forest
15. Texas
16. Mich St.
17. Texas
18. OU
19. LBS
20. Tulane
21. WSU
22. ISUB
23. Mississippi
24. Vanderbilt
25. Appy State
26. Charleston
27. Sam Houston St.
28. SE Louisiana

I see 7-maybe 8 WSU should be ahead of.

[shock10]

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2012/nitty

We look good I think. SOS 35 RPI 43 Conference rpi 5 what else can be done.

All the games are finished.

[shox1989]

Down to 20 spots open (Miss. st wins SEC). Using the good Dr. list

Locks
Fullerton (auto-bid)
1. Central Florida
2. Oregon St.
3. Arkansas

Very Likely
4. Clemson
5. TCU
Missippi St. (just won SEC-autobid)
Pepperdine (WCC auto-bid)
6. San Diego

Expected
7. East Carolina
8. DBU
9. SWMO
10. New Mexico st

Fighting for At-large
11. Wake Forest
12. Texas
13. Mich St.
14. OU
LBS (no chance-#70 rpi)
15. Tulane
16. WSU
17. ISUB
18. Mississippi
19. Vanderbilt
20. Appy State
21. Charleston
22. Sam Houston St.
23. SE Louisiana

I have re-done SB's list taking off those that got auto-bids. If I did my math right there should be 18 spots left for 23 teams. That doesn't seem as bad as I thought it would be after all of the conference tourney upsets (I took LBS off, after today's loss they are @#70 in the rpi).

I am sure I am missing something here. I don't think our odds should be this good considering all that has happened, but I hope they are.

[shock10]

By the nitty gritty report we are the 34th team 33 teams ahead in the rpi.

[shock10]

By my count 8 spots between these. Wake Forest, MSU, texas, Tulane, WSU, ISUB, Miss., Vanderbilt, Appalachian St., Chareston, SHS, Southeastern Louisiana. I gave Okla. a spot.

Guaranteed 1 bid leagues: (12)

Locks (21): Florida State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami, Virginia, Purdue, Texas A&M, Baylor, Fullerton, Rice, Central Florida, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU.

Very Likely (would need to stumble badly and have many upsets in other tourneys to miss) (6): Clemson, Louisville, TCU, Mississippi State, Pepperdine, San Diego

Others Expected to Get In (5): Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State, New Mexico State

Fighting for Their At Large Lives (17): Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma, Long Beach State, UNC-Wilmington, Tulane, Wichita State, Indiana State, New Mexico, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Southeastern Louisiana,

Need Help or Lots of Work to Do (13): Maryland, Virginia Tech, Belmont, St. Johns, Illinois State, Washington, California, Elon, Auburn, Georgia, Samford, Texas State, Gonzaga

Bubble Busted; Win the Tourney or Go Home: South Carolina Upstate, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri, Campbell, Southern Mississippi, Memphis, Liberty, Utah Valley State, Florida Atlantic, Nevada, Hawaii

Updates later but Mississippi is begging to be left out with a 17-21 against the top 100 and 6 straight losses. If they make it 7 straight losses and go 2&Q in the SEC I may move them out.

[tru2thaduce]

I'm glad I have to work tomorrow.If we get a gift and we get in then good.If not I won't even think twice about it.We didn't deserve it.With having to work I won't have my brain clouded by a disapointing Shocker baseball season.

[ShockTalk]

I have re-done SB's list taking off those that got auto-bids. If I did my math right there should be 18 spots left for 23 teams. That doesn't seem as bad as I thought it would be after all of the conference tourney upsets (I took LBS off, after today's loss they are @#70 in the rpi).

I am sure I am missing something here. I don't think our odds should be this good considering all that has happened, but I hope they are.

Indeed. It isn't so much about what good things WSU did as it is what they didn't. So many missed opportunities. Losing to #170 LA-Lafayette and #177 Santa Clara on a neutral field, spliting at home with #166 S. Alabama, not spliting 4 games with #83 Hawaii, losing 2 of 3 in Evansville, and most of all, not winning at least 1 game in the Valley tourney. Maybe as little as 1 of those 6 games, probably no more than 2, and WSU is comfortably in. Instead of going 5-8 in those very winnable 13 games, the Shocks were 3-10 and that may be the difference.

All that said, I still feel it will be not so much whether WSU has the "numbers" to get in as much as it will be the Valley getting half their teams in (5 if you count shadow member DBU).

I'm still taking the position of being pleasantly surprised if WSU gets in rather than upset if they don't.

[shock10]

At Large: locks: Florida, Florida St., UNC, Baylor, LSU, Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina St., Oregon, Miami, Stanford, Arizona, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Rice, UCF, Oregon St., Dallas Baptist, East Carolina, Okla., San Diego, Missouri St., TCU, That is 24 leaving 10 bids For 15 teams: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Clemson, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, New Mexico St., Appalachian St., Louisville, WSU, ISU Blue, Michigan St., Gonzaga, Charleston, Texas. The last 15 teams are in RPI order.

[shock10]

A little help here WHAT 5 do we beat, I know 1 Texas

[shox1989]

Many pundits have been leaving Maryland and Va. Tech out since they both failed to make the ACC tournament.

Gonzaga is another one I would leave out since they went 3-10 against the top 50, a 10-13 road record, and 1 bad loss (sub 201+).

I would also leave out Charleston with their 49 rpi, 96 SOS, 5-5 in their last 10 games and like WSU went 0-2 in their conference tourney.

Michigan St. finished 5th in the big 10 (#10 conference), 3-6 record against the top 50, 5-5 in their last 10 games and 1 bad loss.

I guess that would be my 5, but I would also leave #50 Texas out too with their 4-6 finish including losing their last 3 conference series(especially with Mizzou winning today) and like WSU going 0-2 in their conference tourney. But I didn't include them on the out list because I have a sinking feeling Texas backs in.

[ShockerFever]

We are right on the razor's edge, which is absolutely amazing considering the season and finish. If we do make it, consider it a big time early Christmas present. If we don't, just remember all of the missed opportunities in which the team cashed their chips in too early, including a big O-FER in Springfield. Just win ONE game there, and I think the team plays baseball next weekend for sure. Just terrible.

[shox1989]

Tonight Chasing Omaha.com has made their final projections. They have Indy State as the last team in and WSU as the first team out:

http://www.chasingomaha.com/college-baseball-features/chasing-omaha-regional-projections-final-4.html

Earlier in the day when Mizzou upset Ou, he had posted that Indy State was no longer in. But he must have changed his mind, because he shows them as the last team in on his final projections.

[shock10]

Conference usa get 4 in the 6th rpi conference MVC 3 in the 5th rpi conference I wish we didn't move up.

Tonight Chasing Omaha.com has made their final projections. They have Indy State as the last team in and WSU as the first team out:

http://www.chasingomaha.com/college-baseball-features/chasing-omaha-regional-projections-final-4.html

Earlier in the day when Mizzou upset Ou, he had posted that Indy State was no longer in. But he must have changed his mind, because he shows them as the last team in on his final projections.