American Athletic Conference

[SubGod22]

And Creighton isn't as guaranteed in a league like this as you seem to think. Geography is still working against them and Omaha isn't a huge market. Even @DoubleJayAlum: has said as much

[RandomJaysFan]

PEC

I'm watching your threads on this matter because they're better than ours. So don't shoot me, I think maybe a statement from the other side of the fence might be helpful.

I think we (CU) have probably a 55/45 AGAINST chance at getting an offer. It's close, but I think if push comes to shove, we're out. If they break off, and the non-FBS Big East schools decide on an 8 team or 10 team league, it's over for CU. If it's 12 or more, I'd imagine we'd have at least a 75% chance of an offer.

A couple of things:

First, the importance of this season's outcomes is now paramount. I can see the Big East possibly disbanding earlier than March Madness if Cincinnati or UConn bails, but even then they won't have a new league in place before the tournament. So if you're either CU or WSU (and ESPECIALLY if you're WSU), the time to make hay is now. Let's face it, the one thing we both lack resultswise is recency; VCU and GMU both have Final Fours, and when you look at CU, they haven't really done anything in the tourney, while WSU has one Sweet 16 and one other appearance and that's it. Both of those, in that category, would fall behind VCU and GMU. And when you're already hamstrung by distance, you have to beat the other applicants in about every other category. So get to the Elite 8 at least this season if you want to have a chance to get in, because saying to the Big East that your team is that good and you're returning most of your starters (in our case, I'd imagine Doug would stay) would be a very persuasive argument - a conclusion that goes for either of us.

Second, there's been some sort of declaration by Gonzaga that they might be interested in joining. While that's possibly good news for us, I don't know where that would leave you. Might make you a more likely candidate since that'd blow up the distance thing, but might make you a less likely one since it'd throw another big Jesuit program in the food line. You'd better root against that.

Third, I don't see any way we team up with you on some sort of package deal. From this side of the fence, there's no way any of our fan base would be fine with any deal with you that might cause us to not get an offer that we might get otherwise. Sorry to say. You'd have to have something dynamite to offer in return and I can't think of what that would be.


In the end, I think if I were a WSU fan, this is the playout I'd be hoping for: the Big East breaks away, and decides either on a 8 team or 10 team league. If it's 8 teams I'd bet money the addition would be Xavier, and if it were 10, then Xavier, St. Joes (if Nova doesn't nix that) and one other A10 team. When that dust settles, CU and WSU join George Mason to be the replacements in the A10. Then we're both in a better league; it's not the Big East, but it's a better move.

And you're right, any MVC without one of us is untenable for the other.

My two cents

[ripemupshocks]

Sure would be nice if this was in the Conference shakeup 2.0 thread.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

One advantage we provide Creighton is a close regional partner. If something like an expanded Big East Hoops Only League happens, it will be important for Creighton to not have to travel a thousand miles to play every conference game. I am imagining a western end anchored by SLU/Creighton/WSU/Butler. Also, CU and WSU should align themselves because as @RandomJaysFan: astutely put, the "MVC without one of us is untenable for the other."

I don't think we should get too caught up with the past success of teams like GMU, because I don't think the leagues will be. Does is really matter that GMU went to the Final Four in 2006 when there doesn't seem to be much momentum there to take them back anytime soon? The leagues are going to look for programs with budgets and fan support that have not only produced recent success but also indicate high potential for future success. This is where CU and WSU shine--relatively large basketball and athletic budgets (compared to other non-BCS programs), coaches who seem to have little desire or reason to go elsewhere, and strong fan/donor support.

Don't underestimate the attractiveness of the Wichita and Omaha TV markets. The BCS schools have a lot of the first tier markets locked down, so if a league like the Big East or A-10 come looking for non-BCS schools, both Wichita and Omaha are some of the largest TV markets with "available" non-BCS teams, especially in the midwest.

Lastly, I do unfortunately agree the Big East would raid the A-10 first, but that the A-10 might go west to give SLU some company. That might be our best ticket.

[SubGod22]

It would depend on what's left of the A10 to get too excited. How attractive is it if it doesn't have Butler, Xavier or Dayton?

[GoShockers89]

The A-10 could be a trap during the initial stages of this. I can promise that the Big East schools will absolutely not stop at 8 or 10 teams in their new league. The LAST thing those schools want to worry about is whether 1 or 2 members decide to go FCS -----> FBS and leave for a conference with a football TV contract. That would open them up to poaching again by the A-10.

Whether immediately or over the course of maybe two years, the Big East Breakaways would poach the best basketball-only programs and secure a stable 14-16 team league that would absolutely kill it in hoops. This means that the A-10 would bleed- either a massive hemorrhage at the outset or death by a thousand cuts as the Big East poaches the A-10s best members one by one.

I am 100% ABSOLUTELY IN FAVOR OF GETTING OUT OF THIS $HITHOLE conference, but joining the A-10 if, say, 2 spots open up initially might be questionable. I would hate being stuck in that league if the remaining members after 5 years are the two of us + Fordham, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, and the other northeastern versions of Evansville.

This stage of consolidation is going to see one of the Big East Breakaways/A-10 kill the other to group the best basketball schools in one league.

[GoShockers89]

On second thought, screw it. Taking a chance to better ourselves even with a high degree of risk would still be better than sticking around this dung heap. If it backfired, at least we tried (unlike in the 60s...and 70s...and 90s).

Wondering what if would be way worse than regretting a well intended move that doesn't pan out.

[RandomJaysFan]

There is one reason for them to choose to only go to 8 or 10 teams: elitism. You have to remember that these people are complete...well, let's put it this way: if you think that we at CU are rich and arrogant, talk to someone from Georgetown. I used to live on the east coast and their attitudes towards the perceived 'lesser' schools are appalling.

To them, we're Mark Zuckerberg, and they're the Winkelvii. In their mind, we don't get past the bike room, no matter how much they need our programming skills. We're a bunch of hayseeds out on the Plains and they are rich, East Coast $$$ that goes back for generations. Not all are like this but a lot of them are. Xavier would be an acceptable get to that sort of mindset, and St. Joe's a little lesser than that but still OK, but apart from that, it'll be an ego blow to them to accept someone else. Butler has a get out of jail free card with their two title appearances and they're still close enough; that would make 10. Or, less likely due to distance, we're #10 due to the Catholic angle, but if they go to 10 and that's it I'd say we have a 10% chance or so.


To go bigger, they'd have to make a total basketball decision and then suppress their instinct to be a snot. If they do, then a ton of avenues open up, but you have to remember, their butts have been getting chapped over the whole SMU/UCF et cetera, additions that have been happening over the last 18 months. They've had to shut up and take it with that, so I'm wondering if they get their way they're going to say TO HELL WITH THIS, we're taking who we want and every other chump can pound sand.

If I had to guess I'd say since they shut their mouths about all the lesser additions due to $$$, they'd do it again to try to maximize revenue for the new league, but there's a surprising chance they don't IMO. Everything is so up in the air it's hard to tell exactly what everyone is thinking.

[SubGod22]

I think for either CU or WSU to ever be considered in the scenario, it would have to at least be 14 teams and even then it'd be a stretch for either because of distance.

[DoubleJayAlum]

It would depend on what's left of the A10 to get too excited. How attractive is it if it doesn't have Butler, Xavier or Dayton?

1) It isn't.

2) If all of those teams go (with perhaps SLU), I think it is less likely any midwestern schools are added. Those schools are the western outliers of the A10 now and have the best funded athletic departments. Rest assured that Rhode Island, St John's, LaSalle, Fordham, St Bonaventure, Duquesne, etc. aren't going to be voting to add schools in Nebraska and Kansas. They can barely stay afloat now -- how will they finance the added travel costs?

The only reason the A10 would ever add us is to appease the western schools (X, Dayton, SLU and Butler) in an attempt to keep them from jumping to another league.

[RandomJaysFan]

Wait.

If your options are admit us and WSU etc., or get thrown into oblivion with the Sun Belts of the world, it's a snap decision to do the latter if you're in the A-10?

Not a snap decision. Nor would either of us leaving be.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

It would depend on what's left of the A10 to get too excited. How attractive is it if it doesn't have Butler, Xavier or Dayton?

Very true. The A-10 is pretty much six programs and eight wannabes. The A-10 becomes unattractive for us if a) two of the western teams leave (Butler, SLU, Dayton, maybe Xavier) b) they lose more than 4 of the more easterly heavyweights and Creighton doesn't go with us. An A-10 with eight wannabes but with WSU, CU, SLU, and Butler would be an upgrade from the MVC. Add Bradley in there if you want--the only other MVC school with the resources to keep their coach from jumping ship at the first opportunity.

[ShockTalk]

My point was that without Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette, it is not near as an attractive league.

Just got back. I was agreeing with you, DSB, and merely pointing out other schools being considered by posters that also play FCS football. I was taking UMass off the board as they play FBS and are looking to better their football program.

[SpanglerFan316]

There is one reason for them to choose to only go to 8 or 10 teams: elitism. You have to remember that these people are complete...well, let's put it this way: if you think that we at CU are rich and arrogant, talk to someone from Georgetown. I used to live on the east coast and their attitudes towards the perceived 'lesser' schools are appalling.

I agree. Georgetown wants nothing to do with anybody from WSU. http://explore.georgetown.edu/people...TemplateID=130 ;)

[BostonWu]

The best thing we can do at this point is work with Creighton to present ourselves as a unified front that would be very beneficial to the new conference. Individually we aren't the best looking, but paired with CU I think it gets more manageable. Also, while Wichita is not a major media market, I'm sure having us and SLU would mean significant interest in the KC area. My two cents. Start working with Creighton and then approach the Catholic schools.

Agreed if we stand any chance in such a league we'd need Creighton to pimpusout but why would they?