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Only 4 more days until this cycle is mercifully euthanized, and thank goodness for early voting.
At the national level, Trump has made up significant ground since his campaign's nadir on October 18 (trailed by 7.1 points in the 4 way race average at RCP) and has now closed the gap to 2.6 in 4-way polling, and 1.7 in H2H. The last 24 hours of polls are showing both candidates have plateaued, however, so whoever gets the final bump (if any) over the weekend will be key.
The battle for the Senate remains very tight and there is a decent chance that the VP will serve as the tie-breaker vote for at least the next 2 years - betting markets currently peg GOP chances of retaining control of the Senate at 32%. There are still several very competitive races which should be fun to watch on Tuesday - (NH) Ayotte vs. Hassan, (NV) Heck vs. Cortez-Mastro, (NC) Burr vs. Ross and (IN) Bayh vs. Young seem to be the bellweather races. Other races are competitive, but if, say, Pat Toomey pulls an upset to retain his seat in PA or Kirk somehow wins in IL, that likely means the GOP is having a huge night and almost certainly will have won the other competitive seats as well. Likewise, if Murphy unseats Rubio in FL, the Democrats are probably in the catbird seat in the coinflip races.
The House looks increasingly safe for Republicans - betting markets give Democrats just a 7% chance of flipping control. Lots of competitive races all around (although less than most prior presidential election years).
I have always looked forward to Election Day, but this is the first time in my life that I simply cannot wait for a cycle to end. Let the countdown begin.
At the national level, Trump has made up significant ground since his campaign's nadir on October 18 (trailed by 7.1 points in the 4 way race average at RCP) and has now closed the gap to 2.6 in 4-way polling, and 1.7 in H2H. The last 24 hours of polls are showing both candidates have plateaued, however, so whoever gets the final bump (if any) over the weekend will be key.
The battle for the Senate remains very tight and there is a decent chance that the VP will serve as the tie-breaker vote for at least the next 2 years - betting markets currently peg GOP chances of retaining control of the Senate at 32%. There are still several very competitive races which should be fun to watch on Tuesday - (NH) Ayotte vs. Hassan, (NV) Heck vs. Cortez-Mastro, (NC) Burr vs. Ross and (IN) Bayh vs. Young seem to be the bellweather races. Other races are competitive, but if, say, Pat Toomey pulls an upset to retain his seat in PA or Kirk somehow wins in IL, that likely means the GOP is having a huge night and almost certainly will have won the other competitive seats as well. Likewise, if Murphy unseats Rubio in FL, the Democrats are probably in the catbird seat in the coinflip races.
The House looks increasingly safe for Republicans - betting markets give Democrats just a 7% chance of flipping control. Lots of competitive races all around (although less than most prior presidential election years).
I have always looked forward to Election Day, but this is the first time in my life that I simply cannot wait for a cycle to end. Let the countdown begin.
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