Election Day 2016

[Play Angry]

This morning's update still has Clinton leading by 1.8 in RCP H2H polling, while her lead in RCP 4-way polling averages stands at 2.2.

Betting markets put Trump's odds at 21.4%, the lowest since the Comey email announcement broke a little over a week ago (Trump's odds jumped from 17.4% to 22.5% that day and eventually climbed as high as 28.4%). Wagering sites are placing >50% odds on Clinton's EV number exceeding 320 as of this morning.

No new senate polls as of this morning.

[SB Shock]

This morning's update still has Clinton leading by 1.8 in RCP H2H polling, while her lead in RCP 4-way polling averages stands at 2.2

Betting markets put Trump's odds at 21.4%, the lowest since the Comey email announcement broke a little over a week ago (Trump's odds jumped from 17.4% to 22.5% that day and eventually climbed as high as 28.4%). Wagering sites are placing >50% odds on Clinton's EV number exceeding 320 as of this morning.

No new senate polls as of this morning.

Unless the polls are absolutely flawed - Hillary will have it wrapped up before the polls close out west and the Republican will lose the senate. Worst case in senate for democrats is that Kaine is the deciding vote.

[Kung Wu]

All I know is I would hate to be Madonna's spitoon.

[Aargh]

The most interesting part of this election cycle could be listening to Trump Wednesday. Something gives me the feeling he's not a good loser.

I utterly despise both candidates, so the best I can hope for is to be amused by something. Trump might actually do a SNL on himself without actually realizing that's what he's doing.

[wusphlash]

Kinda like having to vote for Joffrey or Cersei.

[Kung Wu]

From 538:

The polls-plus model, which gives Trump a 36 percent chance, is basically the same one that gave Mitt Romney just a 9 percent chance on the eve of the 2012 election, so it isn’t inherently so cautious. But the still-high number of voters not committed to either Trump or Clinton — about 13 percent of the electorate says it’s undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate, as compared with just 3 percent in the final 2012 polling average — contributes substantially to uncertainty.

Trump is doing better than Romney did at this point by a long shot, and there is quite a bit more uncertainty with 13 percent undecided as of yesterday. It's not over. This can go from a Hillary landslide to a Trump victory, and anything in between.

[Play Angry]

From 538:



Trump is doing better than Romney did at this point by a long shot, and there is quite a bit more uncertainty with 13 percent undecided as of yesterday. It's not over. This can go from a Hillary landslide to a Trump victory, and anything in between.

OTOH, worth noting that Silver is the largest outlier of the 15 major projections at this point when it comes to Trump optimism. Most others place the odds at ~90%+.

Obviously, he is running against a far weaker candidate than Obama so allowing the blue team to run up 320+ again would be an epic but unsurprising embarrassment. Will be interesting to see what the final totals bring.

[Play Angry]

For context, here is the link to the RCP polling average on election day for Obama vs. Romney:

Romney trailed by 0.7% on election day, and had led by as much 1.0% in the preceding 10 day period. Many believe his underperformance (he ultimately lost by 3.9%) was in large part due to Obama's massive ground game edge (2.79:1 field office ratio). Clinton enjoys a comparable 2.75:1 field office ratio heading into Tuesday, so it will be fascinating to see if there is a correlation again between projected vs. actual performance and the number of ground operatives.

Interestingly, there has been some movement in markets in favor of the GOP retaining Senate control even as Trump's odds continue to circle the drain. They are currently at ~45% (up from 32% three days ago) - there must be some increased indications of ticket splitting.

[Kung Wu]

OTOH, worth noting that Silver is the largest outlier of the 15 major projections at this point when it comes to Trump optimism. Most others place the odds at ~90%+.

Obviously, he is running against a far weaker candidate than Obama so allowing the blue team to run up 320+ again would be an epic but unsurprising embarrassment. Will be interesting to see what the final totals bring.

I don't see how he is an optimist. That article is only reflecting national poll averages. His current article says that based on RCP's averages, if you throw a couple outliers out, it's Hillary at 2.5ish almost anyway you slice it. That's not Trump optimism.

[Play Angry]

I don't see how he is an optimist. That article is only reflecting national poll averages. His current article says that based on RCP's averages, if you throw a couple outliers out, it's Hillary at 2.5ish almost anyway you slice it. That's not Trump optimism.

Silver's interpretation of the data relies more heavily on covariance than most other models, although it still does not account for the large discrepancy in his projections versus the consensus.

You are a smart guy. Look at the RCP average link I posted for 2012, then look at it for this year. Then explain to us how:

Trump is doing better than Romney did at this point by a long shot

...if Silver is simply using standard deviations based upon RCP averages. The exact opposite would be true if that were the case.

[Kung Wu]

Look at the RCP average link I posted for 2012, then look at it for this year. Then explain to us how:

...if Silver is simply using standard deviations based upon RCP averages. The exact opposite would be true if that were the case.

I see. I was mixing his commentary from two different articles and confused myself. Yes, that earlier discrepancy was not from RCP.

[SB Shock]

OTOH, worth noting that Silver is the largest outlier of the 15 major projections at this point when it comes to Trump optimism. Most others place the odds at ~90%+.

Obviously, he is running against a far weaker candidate than Obama so allowing the blue team to run up 320+ again would be an epic but unsurprising embarrassment. Will be interesting to see what the final totals bring.

Nate Silver got in a twitter fight yesterday over it because the liberals were complaining he's to optimistic for Trump (and if you have ever listened to Silver on a podcast - he is not a Trump supporter). Silver pointed out that some of these projections had hillary ahead by greater margin than actual polling. I would not be bet again Silver as he's the one who has moved the science of polling and turned it into probabilities.

For Trump to win he has win the following states he is in slight lead:

Florida
Nevada
NC

to do that would be liking flipping a coin 3 times and it coming up Trump every time. If he gets by that then he has either win:

NH
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin

Does anybody really see Trump winning one of those states? I don't think any of these states even have had a poll showing Trump ahead except NH.

[Play Angry]

I see. I was mixing his commentary from two different articles and confused myself. Yes, that earlier discrepancy was not from RCP.

It is a funny situation - he rose to fame by nailing 2008 and then methodically dismantling the unskewed polls fat dude in 2012, but now his model is the clear outlier and he is getting absolutely hammered by his competitors Ryan Grim and Sam Wang on Twitter (his meltdown yesterday on there was entertaining). He will end up probably being correct in ~49 out of 50 states again on Tuesday but needs the margin to be relatively tight or else he'll fall out favor for the next cycle and will return to being a sports-first analyst once Harry Enten jumps ship from his site.

[Play Angry]

Nate Silver got in a twitter fight yesterday over it because the liberals were complaining he's to optimistic for Trump (and if you have ever listened to Silver on a podcast - he is not a Trump supporter). Silver pointed out that some of these projections had hillary ahead by greater margin than actual polling. I would not be bet again Silver as he's the one who has moved the science of polling and turned it into probabilities.

For Trump to win he has win the following states he is in slight lead:

Florida
Nevada
NC

to do that would be liking flipping a coin 3 times and it coming up Trump every time. If he gets by that then he has either win:

NH
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin

Does anybody really see Trump winning one of those states? I don't think any of these states even have had a poll showing Trump ahead except NH.

Yea, on the one hand you have Silver whose model is stubbornly sticking at 65-69%, and on the other you have the Princeton dudes who have pegged it at 99%+ for weeks. The rest are somewhere in between with the heaviest cluster between 85-92%, and betting markets are slightly less certain at roughly 80% odds right now.

Trump remains ahead in NV in RCP averages but everyone has all but called that one for the Dems at this point. States like NH with lower minority representation and less density may be a little more advantageous for him, but in states with big cities and lots of minorities, it looks like he is getting his clock cleaned w/r/t GOTV.

[Play Angry]

Polls are breaking in Clinton's favor with one day to go.

The gap in this morning's RCP H2H average has climbed to 2.5 (from 1.8 yesterday) and the gap in the 4-way race average is now 2.7 (up from 2.2 yesterday). Those numbers do not bake in last night's FBI announcement and it is unlikely anything more than a tracking poll will capture any of its impact given the proximity of the announcement to election day. Betting odds for Trump continue to dip and now stand at 17.9%.

Early voting numbers in FL look decent for the blue team at this point, whereas early voting in NC gives the red team reason to hope that it will remain in the GOP column on Tuesday.