Johnson/Weld 2016

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

More concisely, I can communicate one of 2 things...

Politicians like Trump get my vote.
Politicians like Trump do not get my vote.

Once you accept that Hillary wins either way, the choice is incredibly easy.

[Play Angry]

Depending on which of my friends I am talking to, I am either voting "for Trump" because I refuse to vote for Hillary, or I am voting "for Hillary" because I refuse to vote for Trump.

Maybe, just maybe, I am voting for neither, and the net effect of doing so does not strategically aid either candidate?



All the binary choice folks better be donating five or six figures to a super PAC backing the candidate of their choice because if they aren't, they are really just helping the other side win by their cowardly inaction resulting from a total lack of conviction. You're either all in for one side or else you are helping the other side win. Does that sound right?

[shockmonster]

If too many dems win in Congress, along with the Clintons, say hello to single payer health when Obama care tubes.

[1972Shocker]

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com poll-plus forecast has Trump's chances of winning Kansas at about 94.7% with with Gary Johnson polling at 7.4% and 1.7% for others or undecided. It is quite a stretch at this point to argue that those 3rd party votes in Kansas are having any impact whatsovever on the outcome especially in light of the fact that Trump is leading Clinton by 10.5% in Kansas. There is a reason presidential candidates rarely, if ever, visit Kansas to campaign.

At this point in time both poll analytics and betting odds are giving Trump only about a 15% chance of winning the presidential election. Absent a massive poll/bettor failure the real action would seem to be down-ballot in the Senate and the House races. If the Repbulican's fail to maintain their majorities in either one or both houses of congress than Hillary becomes a much more horrible choice.

Jerry Moran is heavily favored to retain his Senate seat.

I assume that Republicans Mike Pompeo (4th District including Wichita) and Lynn Jenkins (2nd District including Topeka) are safe and would also assume Republican Roger Marshall, who primaried Tim Huelskamp is also safe in thre 1st. Not sure about the race in the 3rd District (Johnson County area) between 3-term Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder and Deomcrat challenger Jay Sidie. Apparently, Trump is struggling a bit in Johnson County and Yoder (who supported Rubio in the primaries) is doing the Trump dance trying not to offend Trump supporters while still appealing to those Republicans and independents who don't care for Trump. This might be the race to watch in Kansas.

Nationally, however, a new report out today from Cook Political Report is projecting that the Democrats are in good position to pick up 5-7 Senate seats which would give them control of the Seante and give Hillary pretty much a free hand in getting her Supreme Court nominees in place. Again, Kansas voters will be unable to impact this result.

[WuShock16]

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com poll-plus forecast has Trump's chances of winning Kansas at about 94.7% with with Gary Johnson polling at 7.4% and 1.7% for others or undecided. It is quite a stretch at this point to argue that those 3rd party votes in Kansas are having any impact whatsovever on the outcome especially in light of the fact that Trump is leading Clinton by 10.5% in Kansas. There is a reason presidential candidates rarely, if ever, visit Kansas to campaign.

At this point in time both poll analytics and betting odds are giving Trump only about a 15% chance of winning the presidential election. Absent a massive poll/bettor failure the real action would seem to be down-ballot in the Senate and the House races. If the Repbulican's fail to maintain their majorities in either one or both houses of congress than Hillay becomes a much more horrible choice.

Jerry Moran is heavily favored to retain his Senate seat.

I assume that Republicans Mike Pompeo (3rd District including Wichita) and Lynn Jenkins (2nd District including Topeka) are safe and would also assume Republican Roger Marshall, who primaried Tim Huelskamp is also safe. Not sure about the race in the 1st District (Johnson County area) between 3-term Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder and Deomcrat challenger Jay Sidie. Apparently, Trump is struggling a bit in Johnson County and Yoder (who supported Rubio in the primaries) is doing the Trump dance trying not to offend Trump supporters while still appealing to those Republicans and independents who don't care for Trump. This might be the race to watch in Kansas.

Nationally, however, a new report out today from Cook Political Report is projecting that the Democrats are in good position to pick up 5-7 Senate seats which would give them control of the Seante and give Hillary pretty much a free hand in getting her Supreme Court nominees in place. Again, Kansas voters will be unable to impact this result.

Small correction: isn't Pompeo the 4th district and Marshall/LaPolice in the 1st district?

[1972Shocker]

Small correction: isn't Pompeo the 4th district and Marshall/LaPolice in the 1st district?

Yes, your are correct. Changes made.

[Ixiah]

Okay ... where to start:

Romney faced Obama in '08, a much more difficult challenge than Hillary '16. It is hard for me to imagine any Republican beating Obama that year. If it was Hillary in '08, I'm confident Romney would have won. Sometimes, it isn't just about "your team", but the strength of the opposition as well. Just ask the 2014 Shockers. Give them any other 8 seed and they advance to the 2nd weekend at minimum. Stupid Kentucky.

This year, there were a dozen R's that could have beaten Hillary. Unfortunately, voters are dumb and they chose Trump, one of the few who couldn't. The outcome in November was sealed as soon as that primary choice was made.

Kind of hard to be dozen R's ... since only 12 made the primary and that included Trump. The percentage of R and D voters are facts - your statements are opinion. The primary is a vetting process - if you can't handle Trump are you really going to do that much better against Hillary?

Yikes, that's just crazy talk that I'm not going to entertain.

So it's now "crazy talk" to recognize that humans obviously have a lifespan? I can see why we have safe spaces now.

There is no possible way that my vote for Trump in Kansas will put him in the White House.

You do realize people post on Shockernet that live in other states? Oh, and where have I stated for you to vote for Trump?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Kind of hard to be dozen R's ... since only 12 made the primary and that included Trump.

Even some that quit before Iowa could have done better than Trump if given the nomination. Yes, I'm still convinced there were at least a dozen candidates that would have outperformed him in the general.

The primary is a vetting process - if you can't handle Trump are you really going to do that much better against Hillary?

Yes. Absolutely. Of course.

Good grief. Primary voters are a small, a very unique subset, of general election voters. Only about 10% of the people who show up on Nov 8th will have voted Trump in the primaries. The general is a whole different ballgame. Of course a candidate could be more inclined to do well in one, but not as well in the other. During the primaries, Real Clear Politics showed Rubio beating Hillary +4. Kasich +7.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So it's now "crazy talk" to recognize that humans obviously have a lifespan? I can see why we have safe spaces now.

Future politicians aren't going to say "well, JH4P voted 3rd party, but he's dead now, so, whatever." Once my vote is cast, its value is secure. My death wouldn't change that. Yes, your comment was irrelevant and silly.

[wu_shizzle]

The RNC should be putting all their eggs in the Congressional elections basket right now.

The Presidential race is pretty much already decided, but with all the Obamacare bad news, and the chance for Hillary to have a Democrat Senate, you have to have Congressional candidates hopefully bring in undecided voters who could still vote Trump, and/or limit a Hillary presidency.

[Ixiah]

Future politicians aren't going to say "well, JH4P voted 3rd party, but he's dead now, so, whatever." Once my vote is cast, its value is secure. My death wouldn't change that. Yes, your comment was irrelevant and silly.

Seriously, how can you misinterpret that. The point is quite simple .. people only have a limited number of elections they can vote in due to limited lifespan. An attempt to do a "protest vote" might be pointless because one may not live to even see another election.

Far from irrelevant and silly - it's quite well reasoned.

[jdshock]

Seriously, how can you misinterpret that. The point is quite simple .. people only have a limited number of elections they can vote in due to limited lifespan. An attempt to do a "protest vote" might be pointless because one may not live to even see another election.

Far from irrelevant and silly - it's quite well reasoned.

You just said it's pointless to ever do anything that you can't see the reward of in your lifetime. I'm sure the families of individuals that died in WWII disagree with that logic.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

An attempt to do a "protest vote" might be pointless because one may not live to even see another election.

The same could be said about saving money for retirement.

lol

[Cdizzle]

I was confused.

Now I'm beginning to understand why we have this problem in the first place.

[Ixiah]

The same could be said about saving money for retirement.

lol

Irrelevant