Trump

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Let's use your Oregon technique on Washington ..

You must have missed the entire thread I created on the Washington primary. I already asked what the heck happened in Washington. Clearly they made a major change because its 2012 primary turnout was an order of magnitude lower than would be expected based on its population. Without knowing what caused such extremely low turnout in 2012, analysis comparing 2012 Washington to 2016 Washington is pointless.

Do you know what they changed?

[Kung Wu]

You must have missed the entire thread I created on the Washington primary. I already asked what the heck happened in Washington. Clearly they made a major change because its 2012 primary turnout was an order of magnitude lower than would be expected based on its population. Without knowing what caused such extremely low turnout in 2012, analysis comparing 2012 Washington to 2016 Washington is pointless.

Do you know what they changed?

I actually made reference to it in my post ("using your figures from another thread").

No, very wonky. Maybe Washington hates Mormons? LOL

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Since you won't admit that you made a mistake -- unless in your mind that has already happened -- I can only assume you meant to mislead. That makes you a liar.

I never intended to mislead.
I don't believe I ever was misleading.
Misunderstandings happen even when both parties are acting in good faith, so I made every effort to clarify so that you wouldn't be mislead.

You "can only assume" I "meant to mislead"?

You're a jerk.

[Kung Wu]

Do you know what they changed?

I have a theory though. Can you tell how many Democrat votes there were in the 2012 primary and 2016 primary?

[Kung Wu]

I never intended to mislead.
I don't believe I ever was misleading.

I do.

[Kung Wu]

You're a jerk.

Suck it.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I have a theory though. Can you tell how many Democrat votes there were in the 2012 primary and 2016 primary?

So the 2016 total was 10x as high because a bunch of Dems came out this time? No way I believe that. Dems are the reason Cruz and Kasich both had more votes than the total turnout of 2012?

Is that really your theory?

[Kung Wu]

So the 2016 total was 10x as high because a bunch of Dems came out this time? No way I believe that. Dems are the reason Cruz and Kasich both had more votes than the total turnout of 2012?

Is that really your theory?

No, it's not even close, actually.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I found it...

Washington State
2012 totals were for a strawpoll caucus.
2016 totals were for a primary.
10.5x difference in turnout.

Not a good state for drawing conclusions between the years.

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/2016-presidential-primary.aspx

How will the political parties use the results of the Presidential Primary?

The political parties retain the authority to decide if they will use the Presidential Primary to allocate delegates to the national nomination conventions. The political parties may also use caucus results, or a combination of primary results and caucus results.
The Republican Party will use the Presidential Primary results to allocate 100% of their convention delegates. The Democratic Party will not use the Primary Election results to allocate any of their delegates. They will rely solely on the results of their Precinct Caucuses on March 26th.

[Kung Wu]

I found it...

Washington State
2012 totals were for a strawpoll caucus.
2016 totals were for a primary.
10.5x difference in turnout.

Not a good state for drawing conclusions between the years.

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/2016...l-primary.aspx

I see, so they switched systems?

[Kung Wu]

Apparently GOP voters are rallying behind Trump as if he were any other candidate ...

GOP support for ...	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2016
Republican nominee	74%	81%	79%	83%	84%	87%	85%
Democrat nominee	14%	13%	18%	7%	10%	6%	7%

I guess we need a new hashtag: #NeverTrum(UnlessRunningAgainstHillary

At any rate, the numbers supporting Trump are pretty clear, there is no apparent Republican division. There may be a ton of butt-puckered Republicans understandably holding their noses in case this turns into a stink bomb, but ultimately, no division.

The question is will he win over enough Democrats? If he keeps hammering away at giving hope for improving the jobs situation and economy which has dragged down/stagnated upwards of 60% of Americans for 16 years, I say, "Yeah, he'll win over many Democrats."

I don't think we'll really know how this is going to work out until Hillary is running against Trump, instead of Sanders though.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Apparently GOP voters are rallying behind Trump as if he were any other candidate ...

GOP support for ...	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2016
Republican nominee	74%	81%	79%	83%	84%	87%	85%
Democrat nominee	14%	13%	18%	7%	10%	6%	7%

@Kung Wu:, there was a caveat in the article... *These numbers do not include third-party candidates.*

As far as I can tell, the question was asked, "Hey you, Mr. Republican dude over there, Trump or Clinton?"

French, Johnson, write-in, whoever. Come November, I'm still confident that 3rd party and write-in votes will be very high this year.

[ShockTalk]

@Kung Wu:, there was a caveat in the article... *These numbers do not include third-party candidates.*

As far as I can tell, the question was asked, "Hey you, Mr. Republican dude over there, Trump or Clinton?"

French, Johnson, write-in, whoever. Come November, I'm still confident that 3rd party and write-in votes will be very high this year.

Washington Post poll.

Fox News poll. Page 3, number 4.

[Kung Wu]

@Kung Wu:, there was a caveat in the article... *These numbers do not include third-party candidates.*

As far as I can tell, the question was asked, "Hey you, Mr. Republican dude over there, Trump or Clinton?"

French, Johnson, write-in, whoever. Come November, I'm still confident that 3rd party and write-in votes will be very high this year.

Yes, that's exactly right. The question is, "Are Republicans divided because of Trump?" The answer is a resounding, "No." Asking independents does nothing to further that question.

[Kung Wu]

Washington Post poll.

Interesting questions in this poll! Can you post the results of question 6 and 7? They won't load in my phone for some reason, while the others do. I'm only interested in registered voter results.