Republican Slow Slog - Poll Updates

[Play Angry]

You can keep repeating yourself if it makes you feel better, but Trump won every single demographic last runoff (he split on one). Young, old, white, black, latino, educated, highly educated, and uneducated ... he won them all.

Likewise, you can keep repeating yourself if it makes you feel better, but it does not change the fact that he has performed the strongest, by far, in every primary and caucus so far among the groups I listed.

A primary or caucus voter so far has been ~2x more likely to support Trump if that voter has a high school diploma (or less) versus a college or postgraduate degree. There is an unsurprisingly similar correlation if you use income as the metric. The poor and uneducated is absolutely his core.

[Kung Wu]

Likewise, you can keep repeating yourself if it makes you feel better, but it does not change the fact that he has performed the strongest, by far, in every primary and caucus so far among the groups I listed.

Sounds like the KU argument against WSU. WSU doesn't play anybody, and only plays panzies in the MVC. Is that an argument that they aren't good? Or is it important to recognize that they also hold their own against good opponents?

A primary or caucus voter so far has been ~2x more likely to support Trump if that voter has a high school diploma (or less) versus a college or postgraduate degree.

So what? That fact doesn't tell a darn thing about what the educated and middle/upper income classes are doing. Which is ALSO voting for Trump (so far). The only thing that can turn that tide is if Rubio or Cruz step down.

[pinstripers]

Cruz is a pr!ck, tho

[Play Angry]

Sounds like the KU argument against WSU. WSU doesn't play anybody, and only plays panzies in the MVC. Is that an argument that they aren't good? Or is it important to recognize that they also hold their own against good opponents?

What a weird straw man and poor analogy. I actually cannot tell if you are serious with this part.

So what? That fact doesn't tell a darn thing about what the educated and middle/upper income classes are doing. Which is ALSO voting for Trump (so far). The only thing that can turn that tide is if Rubio or Cruz step down.

Ummmm, I characterized his core as the groups where he is receiving 40-60% support in primaries and caucuses to date. You are arguing that because he has also received a much, much narrower plurality among college graduates and sometimes wins, sometimes loses a narrow plurality of post-graduates (a combined group where he is receiving ~25-35% so far) that my characterization is somehow invalid. That is really poor logic and I can't tell what straw man you are debating against here.

I would not have thought of you as an elitist who so strongly resents being lumped with the overwhelming preference of the working class when it comes to your candidate of choice.



That last sentence is obviously in jest given your prior jab at my repeated lambasting of his supporters, but it is a little weird that you are so sensitive to the fact that the dude crushes it among society's lowest rungs. It's absolutely part of his game plan and he's custom-tailored his message to them artfully - you should embrace the populism as a Trump supporter instead of fighting it.

[ShockerEngineer]

Most people who make that argument about Trump supporters seem to be doing that to shame people and practically bully them into a different opinion. It comes across as a way to invalidate someone's opinion without actually having to use any thought. People (including some on here) will boil things down to "if you [believe|support] ______, then you're an idiot."

Before Play Angry hadn't added the footnote to his post, I can say I definitely was not reading it the way he intended.. Ha.

[SB Shock]

I don't understand what your comment re: "your side" means. Please elaborate.

I was just echoing when you said in the previous post

There has to be hope that your side will vote

- I think it obvious I'm a conservative, so when you say "your side" I assume you are declaring you are batting for the other team - unless it was mis-speak.

[Play Angry]

Most people who make that argument about Trump supporters seem to be doing that to shame people and practically bully them into a different opinion. It comes across as a way to invalidate someone's opinion without actually having to use any thought. People (including some on here) will boil things down to "if you [believe|support] ______, then you're an idiot."

Before Play Angry hadn't added the footnote to his post, I can say I definitely was not reading it the way he intended.. Ha.

It's really, really hard to articulate a cogent explanation of support for Trump based on issues and values for most Republican primary voters. Nobody has done it on this board yet. Unless they self-identify as single issue with far-right views on immigration, then it doesn't make sense why they would support Trump over more reliable conservatives like Rubio or Cruz, or in the case of moderates, someone like Kasich. They are eschewing the ideas they prioritized in very recent elections by doing so - there really is no defending a statement that John McCain was not a war hero, for example, because Donald Trump (who received two educational deferments before receiving a medical deferment for heel spurs) says those who are captured are not heroes at all. That statement alone would have fatally crippled the campaign of many past candidates.

Instead, his focus on the inevitability of his own election, his business accomplishments (but never his failures), and "winning" / "make America great again!" has generated an incredible level of support among voters despite his staggering ideological differences with those voters' prior favored candidates. Someone who can (i) win, and (ii) get stuff done after winning is so appealing that they really don't care about most of his specific viewpoints. Unsurprisingly, this is the most appealing to the folks who have struggled the most with the transition of the American economy over the last forty years. However, it is ironic that the core of that support, which buys in so fully to the branding of winning and get 'er done, are the ones who are "losing" and "losing badly" economically and in most other spheres. The identity of the campaign is built on success and it stings for a lot of those folks when that central tenet is shaken by noting that the campaign's support finds by far the most success among those who have the very least of it. It's a pretty clever brand of populism that hasn't been tested in America in a long time.

At the end of the day, his supporters in the primaries/caucuses are showing that a rational debate on ideas and values isn't something they care to indulge in. They've already rejected more justifiable reasons to jump ship than any candidate has provided in recent memory. It's an impressive and incredible movement right now, and it looks like it may bet set to redefine American "conservatism" for the foreseeable future. It is also disgusting, short-sighted, intellectually lazy, and dangerous.

It's gonna be an interesting next eight months.

[Play Angry]

I was just echoing when you said in the previous post - I think it obvious I'm a conservative, so when you say "your side" I assume you are declaring you are batting for the other team - unless it was mis-speak.

Oh. I'm sorry you misunderstood my quote, which was in response to your question of "Why would that surprise you?" that Trump is winning. I think it's pretty obvious I am conservative too.

It meant that ya gotta have faith that your (our) side will be better than voting in someone based solely on personality rather than principles, otherwise you (we) might as well just give up and embrace destruction.

[SB Shock]

From Nate Silver of 538

Here’s a forecast for what will happen if four different candidates win states tonight, as very early exit polls suggest might be possible, while Trump still emerges with the clear majority of states and delegates: None of us are going to get much sleep between now and March 15. Trump will look more stoppable than when the night began, but the plan for stopping him will be less clear than ever and may increasingly involve talk of a contested convention.

[SB Shock]

Oh. I'm sorry you misunderstood my quote, which was in response to your question of "Why would that surprise you?" that Trump is winning. I think it's pretty obvious I am conservative too.

It meant that ya gotta have faith that your (our) side will be better than voting in someone based on personality rather than principles.

I wondered why you were randomly throwing in crap about Hillary as if it's a counterpoint, hah.

LOL. I was surprised when you said it and I was like has he just been pretending to be conservative to play with us....:monkey:

[SB Shock]

Updated polling up to Super Tuesday

Cruz is so polarizing. Huge spread.
Rubio has a definite trend upwards - but is it to late.
Trump just continue the slow slog
Carson - just wasting everybody time
Kasich - what is his endgame? There is no polling (except his home state) that says he has a chance?

[Kung Wu]

Cruz is a pr!ck, tho

Well I think he is the most divisive of the group, so he would have the most difficult time winning the actual election. But he is what the country needs the most right now. It's a sucky situation with him. We need him the most, but he can't win.

[DUShock]

Kasich is just holding out for a cabinet post after his term serving Ohio is completed.

[pinstripers]

He's a great VP candidate if he can deliver Ohio

[Kung Wu]

What a weird straw man and poor analogy. I actually cannot tell if you are serious with this part.

I just reread it. It's actually pretty good!