Republican Slow Slog - Poll Updates

[Kung Wu]

The math says he doesn't have a chance.

Trump's wee wee is really big, or Trump statistically can't win?

[SB Shock]

Trump's wee wee is really big, or Trump statistically can't win?

Statistically he can still win, but the results showed this weekend the republican establishment have united against. So unless he can start winning ~60% of all the delegates from here on out, he really has no chance unless u think he can some how win at a contested convention.

[Aargh]

Statistically he can still win, but the results showed this weekend the republican establishment have united against. So unless he can start winning ~60% of all the delegates from here on out, he really has no chance unless u think he can some how win at a contested convention.

Let me see if I got this right. The Republican establishment does not want to do what their own voters are telling them they want done? That seems to violate some of the principles of a Democracy.

[Kung Wu]

Statistically he can still win, but the results showed this weekend the republican establishment have united against. So unless he can start winning ~60% of all the delegates from here on out, he really has no chance unless u think he can some how win at a contested convention.

Wow, I didn't realize the Republican party could undermine him that easily. Interesting. No, I doubt he can survive a contested convention.

Any chance he and Cruz unite? I worry about Paul Ryan -- I used to think he was a good pol, but he has made some eyebrow raising, somewhat snakey anti-conservative moves.

[Kung Wu]

Let me see if I got this right. The Republican establishment does not want to do what their own voters are telling them they want done? That seems to violate some of the principles of a Democracy.

And both parties are doing it. It's a very strange election cycle.

[Play Angry]

I worry about Paul Ryan -- I used to think he was a good pol, but he has made some eyebrow raising, somewhat snakey anti-conservative moves.

Which moves are you referring to?

[Kung Wu]

Which moves are you referring to?

First concern was a major budget that was passed uncontested. There was a serious opportunity to push some conservative issues that were completely ignored.

[SB Shock]

Let me see if I got this right. The Republican establishment does not want to do what their own voters are telling them they want done? That seems to violate some of the principles of a Democracy.

Trump is only able to get a plurality, not a majority. So the majority of voters are saying they don't want him. So you could argue they are serving the will of the people.

Problem is nobody is going to be happy in the end

[SB Shock]

The next contest favors Trump. He needs to squash his opponents and take all the delegates. Meanwhile Cruz is just looking to survey to fight another day. Polls show Trump Surging, Cruz Crashing.

[Aargh]

I'm a bit surprised by the latest results posted here. Possibly some voter backlash based on the party establishment trying to prop up Cruz? I think the voters might be about fed up with the party machines on both sides.

[Kung Wu]

Trump is only able to get a plurality, not a majority.

That's not unusual half way through a primary race is it? It typically isn't until all the candidates without a chance drop out until one starts gaining a majority, I don't think.

[Aargh]

Trump is only able to get a plurality, not a majority. So the majority of voters are saying they don't want him. So you could argue they are serving the will of the people.

Problem is nobody is going to be happy in the end

By that reasoning, there are a lot more voters saying they don't want Cruz or Kasich than voters saying they don't want Trump.

If "None Of The Above" were an available option on the ticket of either party, those choices would already have the nominations locked up.

[SB Shock]

By that reasoning, there are a lot more voters saying they don't want Cruz or Kasich than voters saying they don't want Trump.

If "None Of The Above" were an available option on the ticket of either party, those choices would already have the nominations locked up.

I grant you that. That the problem - there just isn't the candidate that anybody can unite around.

[SB Shock]

That's not unusual half way through a primary race is it? It typically isn't until all the candidates without a chance drop out until one starts gaining a majority, I don't think.

That is true for the Romney race, the difference has been so many candidates and more of horse race this late. Romney seemed to have challengers like Trump but he was hitting mid-40's by march and by April was winning 60-70%. If Trump goes on a roll, it could mirror Romney run, just with shift of 3-4 weeks.

McCain in 2008, was hitting the majority (50-60%) in early February.

Bush in 2000 pretty much was hitting >50% out of the gate except for the few states he lost and his % there running in the 35 to 45% range.

Reagan by March had taken control and was winning super majorities.

Here is a comparison of Trump vs Romney in polling. As you can see Trump had more early support than Romney, but now at equivalent times is lagging him slightly, but Trump is also coming into favorable geography now.

[Kung Wu]

Here is a comparison of Trump vs Romney in polling. As you can see Trump had more early support than Romney, but now at equivalent times is lagging him slightly, but Trump is also coming into favorable geography now.

And if Kasich stubbornly refuses to drop out, it still might not happen. The GOP must be paying Kasich to stay in.

Should be interesting.