Republican Slow Slog - Poll Updates

[wsushox1]

Just continue that thought- Mr. T is more polarizing, Cruz is somewhat polarizing, and Rubio is not polarizing at all. The more polarizing a candidate is the more scattered they poll because you might hit pockets of pro- or anti- people.

Do you have a link for a study for this error in the random sampling procedure?

[shock]

Not readily available. I would have to go back and consult Nature and Origin of Mass Opinion.

However, there is a recent study on this primary where people were not publicly willing to support Trump, but would vote for him in an anonymous situation. This is because Trump is a polarizing figure- and it is not "popular" opinion to like him. Therefore, some of these polls are influenced by peer pressure and mainstream media opinion. As long as a candidate falls outside of party lines, you will see these type of polling charts.

Let me explain further. Rubio and Bush fall into establishment rhetoric almost perfectly. That is why you see them with tight polling lines. There is not really a negative stigma associated with either from an independant perspective. Now with Carson and Cruz, they (along with others) have been targets of mainstream media for their faith and political opinions (mainly challenging the authority and criticizing the Establishment leadership, generally being further right than the Establishment). I would hypothesize Rand would have similar charts to Carson and Cruz if given their popularity. Trump is just an extreme of the above. All three have very negative stigmas that would cause people among given catagories to be less apt for their peers to know they support such a candidate.

[SB Shock]

It's interesting on those graphs how much tighter the plot points for Rubio are compared to Trump and Cruz. Not sure what can be extracted from that, other than Rubio polls more consistently across the different poll metrics.

To somewhat understand the scatter (or outliers), you have to look at more of the context in individual polls. For example, Cruz polls nearly the same as Rubio, except in Iowa where he is doing much better.

[wu_shizzle]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188069/jeb-bush-image-among-republicans-deteriorates.aspx?version=print

On a relative basis, Bush's current -1 net favorable rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is the worst of any major GOP candidate -- lower than John Kasich's +5, and well below seven other GOP candidates Gallup is tracking. Ted Cruz is at the top of the list in the latest two-week period, from Dec. 18-Jan. 5, with a net favorable rating of +45, followed by Ben Carson at +40, Marco Rubio at +35 and Mike Huckabee at +33. Carly Fiorina, Donald Trump and Chris Christie all have net favorable ratings in the +23 to +25 range. Although Bush is least popular among Republicans, Trump has the lowest net favorable score among all U.S. adults, -26, compared with -13 for Bush.

[SB Shock]

Poll update before tonight debate.

[SB Shock]

Update in the polls - a week away from Iowa

[Play Angry]

Rubio finally seeing a significant uptick in Iowa in polls released yesterday and today. We'll see if it's real or a head fake soon, but the timing is certainly positive for him if a shift is underway.

[Play Angry]

Today's the day for Iowa. Latest polls have Rubio closing hard, Cruz gaining some ground on a relative basis, and Trump slipping.

This morning's dem polls also have mixed results with Hillary leading one and Bernie leading the other. Should be a fun night watching the returns.

[pinstripers]

http://www.allenbwest.com/2016/02/forget-iowa-betting-odds-have-already-predicted-the-gop-candidate/

[SB Shock]

Latest updates post-Iowa. Iowa results are posted with red diamond.

[SB Shock]

Rand Paul is suspending his campaign today.

[SB Shock]

Update prior to NH. Added Kasich as he might becoming a player (or not).

[tropicalshox]

Fiorina gives up. Rumor is Christie will soon follow suit.

[SB Shock]

[SB Shock]

Update before the big SC primary tomorrow. No hint of anybody challenging trump.