Obama vs Romney - Polling

[DUShock]

My point is the RR should be pounding the hell out of OB but reason seems to be an alien concept to a good number of pedestrian Republicans as to why this is not occurring.

[pinstripers]

Imagine 1942, and a candidate for President is the son of a German citizen, the
son of a Nazi. Would any of us vote for him, under any circumstances? Wake up,
America.

[SB Shock]

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Poll data before the first debate.

[SB Shock]

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Well, I don't think Romney could have imagined the bump he got from Obama. Now can Biden help sustain the bump....

[Kung Wu]

Well, I don't think Romney could have imagined the bump he got from Obama. Now can Biden help sustain the bump....

Why not? Even lowly @Kung Wu: said it would happen back in August. The media can't hide the overwhelming experience and savvy of a successful CEO in a debate, and neither can the media hide Obama's complete lack of executive experience. The only chance Obama has to redeem himself at this point is to go hysterically negative -- and that could be suicide too.

The bottom line is the only reason Romney isn't completely killing it is because the mainstream media has given him no positive airtime. They CAN'T hide Romney in a debate -- they have to air him. The people now get to see the real Romney for the first time. And compared with Obama they are loving what they see and hear.

Now that the pre-debate polls are falling off the charts, check out Real Clear Politics.

[SB Shock]

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Post-Debate polling showing Romney still surging.

[SB Shock]

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Pre-Debate polling.

Electorally, Obama is leading 294 to 244 (no tossups)

Obama is still leading in Ohio (18)
Romney is basically tied in Virginia (13) which is in the Obama column (for now)

[GoShockers89]

Swing state polling has finally started to turn against Obama over the last week: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I would expect a Wisconsin poll or two to be released in the next 48 hours showing that Romney has taken a lead in the state for the first time. The panic pitch will ascend from alto to soprano at that point.

A win in tonight's debate (even a very narrow one) will make things very, very tough for Obama in the final weeks. I would expect to see Romney making serious, serious gains on the Intrade odds for the elections in the next couple days.

[Kung Wu]

Swing state polling has finally started to turn against Obama over the last week: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I would expect a Wisconsin poll or two to be released in the next 48 hours showing that Romney has taken a lead in the state for the first time. The panic pitch will ascend from alto to soprano at that point.

A win in tonight's debate (even a very narrow one) will make things very, very tough for Obama in the final weeks. I would expect to see Romney making serious, serious gains on the Intrade odds for the elections in the next couple days.

Barring a complete meltdown by Obama, there is NO WAY the media will say that Romney has won tonight. None. In fact they have already written the conclusion on how "tight" the debate was, but that Obama had the edge, and are just waiting to hit the enter key to send it out.

[WuDrWu]

I am not a poll expert, but what is one to take from these reports of polls that sample, for instance, at a +8 Democratic tilt, when the actual 2008 voter turnout was, again for example, +6 Democratic?

[WuDrWu]

Barring a complete meltdown by Obama, there is NO WAY the media will say that Romney has won tonight. None. In fact they have already written the conclusion on how "tight" the debate was, but that Obama had the edge, and are just waiting to hit the enter key to send it out.

I agree completely. The narrative has already been written. The real question will be if voters will continue to be unswayed by the false narratives, as they were after the 2nd debate.

[Kung Wu]

I am not a poll expert, but what is one to take from these reports of polls that sample, for instance, at a +8 Democratic tilt, when the actual 2008 voter turnout was, again for example, +6 Democratic?

Dick Morris had an excellent article about that. If you skip the pro-conservative commentary and stick to the articles where his expertise lies (polling and strategy) there really is some behind the scenes stuff you can learn. This was from Oct. 5:

http://www.dickmorris.com/swing-state-polls-are-rigged/

[SB Shock]

Dick Morris had an excellent article about that. If you skip the pro-conservative commentary and stick to the articles where his expertise lies (polling and strategy) there really is some behind the scenes stuff you can learn. This was from Oct. 5:

http://www.dickmorris.com/swing-state-polls-are-rigged/

If that is true, then we are looking at a Romney land slide come election day unless the democrats can rig the real polls that count - the election day ballot.

But I don't buy into that the pollsters are rigging the polls. Because there are republican pollsters, there are democrat pollsters and their neutral pollsters. Their job is to get the right answer for their customer, not give them koolaid to drink. The kool aid pollsters stick out like a sore thumb.

Ultimately this election is going to come down to Ohio if Romney carries VA and Florida. If Romney carries Wisconsin it will be a landslide for him.

[SB Shock]

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Poll update prior to last debate.

Ohio polling shows tie or slight obama leaning.

Wisc polling showing comfortable lead for Obama

Fla shows comfortable Romney lead

VA polling show Romney with slight lead (he is leading in 4 out 7 polls)

Colorado shows race up for grabs

NH polling was showing it as a tossup, until a new poll came out from UNH which has obama leading by 9. This poll has consistently had Obama ahead.

[tropicalshox]

Just voted!