Obama vs Romney - Polling

[SB Shock]

"they're in deep trouble,"

--David Axelrod, a senior adviser to President Barack Obama's reelection campaign

Axelrod said on "Fox News Sunday." "They've tried to expand the map because they know in states like Ohio… they're behind and they're not catching up at this point."

State Polls released Sunday

Ohio +2 Obama

Penn tie and +3 Obama

Michigan +1 Romney

Mass +18 Obama

Indiana +9 Romney

Montana +10/+10 Romney

Main +7 Obama

Not much good news for Romeny in national polling as Obama seems to have the momentum.

[SB Shock]

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[pinstripers]

Axlerod is a POS.

[Kung Wu]

@SB Shock: ... give me your opinion on something. On www.realclearpolitics.com go to Polls --> "Obama vs. Romney" which may be where you are getting your data?

Anyhow when you look at the list, the big 2: Rasmussen and Gallup have it tied and Romney +5 respectively. They both are showing +1000 samples. The only thing keeping Obama winning is a single poll by "National Journal" (whoever that is) with an Obama +5 rating. The MoE on that is 4.4 (huge) and the sample size is only 713. If you pop that out it's a straight up tie isn't it? I think that's what you were saying earlier, true?

[WuDrWu]

I woke up Friday morning with an awful feeling about the outcome. I fear for our country.

It's going to be a miserable next 72 hours, with a 2 hour exception tomorrow night.

Margin of Error +-4%

[SB Shock]

@SB Shock ... give me your opinion on something. On www.realclearpolitics.com go to Polls --> "Obama vs. Romney" which may be where you are getting your data?

I obviously look at that, but the best place I have found that lists all the polls and keeps them updated is

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

The charts I do are mine with its own weighting - I don't like the weighting that RCP or huffingtonpost uses.

Anyhow when you look at the list, the big 2: Rasmussen and Gallup have it tied and Romney +5 respectively. They both are showing +1000 samples. The only thing keeping Obama winning is a single poll by "National Journal" (whoever that is) with an Obama +5 rating. The MoE on that is 4.4 (huge) and the sample size is only 713. If you pop that out it's a straight up tie isn't it? I think that's what you were saying earlier, true?

The national polls are showing that the popular vote will likely be pretty much split nationally which ultimately means this will be electoral college election. Right now RCP has Obama leading 201 to 191 with 11 tossup states.

Obama Leaning States

Colorado (9) - Tie, O+1, O+4
Iowa (6) - O+1, O+5, O+4
Michigan (16) - O+6, O+7, R+1, O+5, O+7 (Obama >=50% in most polls)
Ohio (15) - O+4, O+8, O+3, O+2, O+4
NH (4) - O+4, Tie, O+1, O+6
Nevada (6) - O+4, O+6, O+4, O+6
Penn (20) - O+6, O+3, O+8 (Obama >=50% in most polls)
VA (13) - O+2, O+6, O+2, O+1
Wisc (10) - O+3, O+4, O+6, O+7 (Obama >=50% in most polls)

Romney Leaning States

Florida (29) - R +2, R+1, O+2, O+4, R+6
NC (15) - R+2, Tie, R+1, R+5

That gives Romney 235, Obama 303

That means Romney has to pull 35 From Obama column. The likely one is VA +13. Where is the next +22 coming from? If the polls are correct, Electorally it is not going to be close.

Republican Hope - turnout, turnout, turnout, with weak democratic turnout and the polls have overly weighted democratic turnout (this is what I believe Dick Morris is saying when he declares a Romney landslide).

But I'm a data driven person and I don't see the data that shows there is much hope for a Romney victory, because I think Romney has his own turnout issues especially with Christians. I look at polls like from Newsmax, and they show Obama leading - so to me that kills the conspiracy theory (why would Newsmax be anti-romney?

My only real hope is that Obama will get <50% of the vote and there will be no clear mandate and Congress will fight Obama tooth and nail and gridlock will rule the day except on things that are clearly good for America.

[Kung Wu]

That means Romney has to pull 35 From Obama column. The likely one is VA +13. Where is the next +22 coming from? If the polls are correct, Electorally it is not going to be close.

Don't know. I can see Iowa and Colorado going Romney though. Although I am surprised to hear myself say that Colorado could go Romney. So then I wonder if I really believe it. LOL

[wu_shizzle]

It wouldn't surprise me with the hurricane that Obama would be polling a little better.

I don't know if that really matters at this point.

I just can't see people choosing to vote for Obama now, who otherwise wouldn't have. IIRC, Gore and Kerry were both up in the polls at this point.

[GoShockers89]

It wouldn't surprise me with the hurricane that Obama would be polling a little better.

I don't know if that really matters at this point.

I just can't see people choosing to vote for Obama now, who otherwise wouldn't have. IIRC, Gore and Kerry were both up in the polls at this point.

Kerry was behind by 1.5 in the final polling averages, which was actually closer than he'd run for most of the prior 2 months.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Bush also led Gore by a fractional amount in national polls heading into 2000. This wound up being incorrect since Gore won the popular vote.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm

[WuDrWu]

And Obama's ground game is light years ahead of either Gore or Kerry.

[wu_shizzle]

And by "ground game" I assume you mean fraud?

I just figure Romney has to win by the margin of community organizing.

[Kung Wu]

I'll go against the grain and say that Romney is going to pull this out. While Obama has a more aggressive ground campaign and unprecedented media support; neither Gore nor Kerry had to defend a bad economy, controversial health care policy, and a massive opposition effort in the form of a Tea Party that threw a bunch of people out two years prior.

We'll know soon!

[WuDrWu]

I'll go against the grain and say that Romney is going to pull this out. While Obama has a more aggressive ground campaign and unprecedented media support; neither Gore nor Kerry had to defend a bad economy, controversial health care policy, and a massive opposition effort in the form of a Tea Party that threw a bunch of people out two years prior.

We'll know soon!

I hope you are right my friend....I hope and pray you are right.

I read inside the CNN poll, http://www.ijreview.com/2012/11/2137...ng-statistics/
, and I have hope, but most things don't show Romney momentum.

[SB Shock]

Kung Wu I also hope u are right - as it would make for good comedy TV on tuesday night.

Going into the final day, independent surveys still show the race to be close, with little recent movement -- and few undecided voters left.
Nonetheless, President Obama’s top advisers and like-minded pundits are openly confident, even haughty, in their certitude that a slight advantage in the public opinion polls will translate into a comfortable Electoral College victory Tuesday night. By contrast, the attitude at Mitt Romney's headquarters might best be described as cautiously hopeful.

"The long and short of it is, I would say, we feel really good about where we are," said one senior advisor who has been poring over early vote totals from swing states.

"Do I think we're going to run the table and end up where we were in '08? No. But do I think that frankly any of these states could go our way, and they're all going to be that close that I would put my money on us winning all of them? Yes, I would put money on us being able to win all of them."


Another top aide pegged the campaign's chances of victory at "100 percent," but the chances of sweeping all eight battleground states at "25 percent."

They are either an arrogant or confident bunch.

[SB Shock]

I will say that I have read articles over lunch from Morris, Rove, Barnes, Noonan, etc - and they all predict a Romney win and say the models behind the media polls are biased and wrong and Romney will win.