Obama vs Romney - Polling

[SB Shock]

Just voted!

You are a good citizen no matter which side u voted.

[Ixiah]

A tie in the presidential election is clearly not out of the question. The highest chance being this:

Obama: PA, OH, WI, NM, NH

Romney: FL, NV, IA, CO, VA

A tie results in dusting off of some very old rules - here is a good video on how it is resolved

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI

[WuDrWu]

Is there any question as to which Congress (the lame duck or the new) votes? Also, what happens in the event of a tie within a state? If Kansas splits 2-2 and they can't come to a conclusion, what happens at that point? Does the egg timer go off and they lose their turn?

Also, if the Senate ties 50/50, does Biden get to cast a single vote for Vice President, ostensibly for himself?


I am not a Constitutional Scholar (not exactly a big surprise to anyone here) but in reading the 12th Amendment and doing a little research, it doesn't seem cut and dried as to which Congress votes.....it is cut and dried as to when they report the vote. I don't know...maybe I am looking too deep and making something out of nothing.

[Kung Wu]

I wouldnt worry too much about it. Real question is landslide or not?

[Ixiah]

The questions are answered at this website:

http://electoralcollegetie.com/How_Do_We_Break_A_Tie_.php

Is there any question as to which Congress (the lame duck or the new) votes?

New congress votes

Also, what happens in the event of a tie within a state? If Kansas splits 2-2 and they can't come to a conclusion, what happens at that point? Does the egg timer go off and they lose their turn?

Appears so.

Also, if the Senate ties 50/50, does Biden get to cast a single vote for Vice President, ostensibly for himself?

Per that website - no - Biden may not vote to break a tie as 26 Senator votes are required.

I am not a Constitutional Scholar (not exactly a big surprise to anyone here) but in reading the 12th Amendment and doing a little research, it doesn't seem cut and dried as to which Congress votes.....it is cut and dried as to when they report the vote.

If a president has not been decided by Jan 20th then you start using the presidential ordering rules - VP (if that has been resolved), Chairman of the House, etc.

I don't know...maybe I am looking too deep and making something out of nothing.

The chance of a tie is still pretty unlikely but as the phrase goes - "You never know".

[WuDrWu]

I appreciate that answer, but it really doesn't address the tie, differentiating it from a tie in the Senate every day. 50 vote ties in the Senate ARE broken by the Vice President, giving 1 side 51. Are they throwing that out or not? I would think that would be addressed, specifically, somewhere.

It's all very interesting. For the sake of interest, I'd love to see it. Especially (not personally mind you) if some oddity happened like Romney winning the popular vote convincingly, but the Republicans losing enough seats to get the states to a 24-24 tie, with 2 states having equal numbers of Dem and GOP delegates (Kansas for instance). Say Kansas and Iowa for instance. KS 2 and 2 and Iowa 3 and 3. Intriguing to think how that might play out.

Mind you, I am hoping for a 338-200 landslide win for the challenger instead, but still, it's interesting to contemplate.

[GoShockers89]

Rough crop of state polls the last 2 days. Looking more and more like any momentum has ground to a halt.

[SB Shock]

Rough crop of state polls the last 2 days. Looking more and more like any momentum has ground to a halt.

I heard a prominent republican pollster say it was going to come down to Wisc and Ohio - and Romney trails in both.

[GoShockers89]

I heard a prominent republican pollster say it was going to come down to Wisc and Ohio - and Romney trails in both.

Sounds about right. I like our odds of flipping Wisconsin a little better, but I have basically nothing to back that argument up.

Also not so sure that Colorado is as safe as has recently been argued.

[GoShockers89]

Rasmussen has Romney leading in OH today for the first time in months. We'll see if it becomes a trend or remains an outlier.

[WstateU]

This is not a political email. It is a sales email. Yes, Shamus is a piece of work, however his highlighted comments (sorry, highlighted comments won't show up here) are pretty spot-on. Yes, I know what it is like to be 'caught by a steel jawed trap'. If you've been in business or sales, you probably can relate.

The following by, Shameless Shamus Brown

This is What a Losing Salesman Looks Like

(Warning - I'm going to lose a few readers over this email...)

A salesman losing a deal is kinda like an animal caught by a steel
jawed trap crushing its leg.

It screams in pain.

It kicks to get free.

And in some cases it will even chew it's leg off to get away.

A salesman losing a deal is a depressing sight.

And when you know what to look for, it's easy to spot while it's
happening.

Right now you can watch a salesman losing the 2nd biggest sale of
his life.

But you can only watch this show for the next 8 days.

Because right now, the President of the United States is losing the
election.

Just like a desperate animal caught in a trap, he is doing anything
he can to regain the lead before the election next Tuesday.

From what I read, the Obama campaign message is constantly
shifting, casting about, looking for something that will gain
traction in these last few days of the race.

One article I read was by veteran speechwriter Andrew Ferguson, in
The Weekly Standard, where he recounted how Obama is now trying out
a campaign message that is exactly the same as one President George
H.W. Bush had tried late in his losing 1992 campaign....

"There's no more serious issue in a presidential campaign than
trust," President Obama said. "Trust matters!"

Silly argument.

Silly because it lacks any true positive case for the man making it.

Telling people to trust you more, is really just saying that you
can't trust the other guy.

And when you are attacking the other guy at the end of the sale, it
really shows that you have no positive, benefit-oriented message
that your buyer has bit on.

It shows you haven't connected with the buyer.

At the end of the sale, you should be getting lots of buying
signals if you are winning.

You don't have to ask people to trust you when you are winning.

I know.

I've lost my share of deals.

And at the end, right before you lose, you start to feel it.

You feel the lack of connection with the buyer.

You feel that the buyer has pulled away from you.

And that desperate animal in you just wants to rip your competitor
to shreds, claw by claw, because you've got nothing to lose.

Yes, I've been tempted to drop every bit of dirt I knew about my
competition when I felt sure I was losing a deal.

I've wanted to tell the customer every reason why they company they
were going to buy from sucked.

And when I was actually told that I had lost, I just wanted to
discount the crap outta the price in a desperate bid to try and win
back the customer (or at least make the other guy lower his price
to keep the win).

Desperation.

That's what losing looks like.

Enjoy the show for the next 8 days.


And remember always...

Sell with PRIDE!

Shameless Shamus Brown

Industrial EGO Sales - http://www.industrialego.com/

[SB Shock]

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Last Weekend Update. Polls who that Romney momentum stunted and Obama has tied it up. Ultimately it means this is now a state by state race. Looking at the latest state polls - it pretty much look like good news for Obama. 5 of the last 6 polls in Ohio have Obama up by an average of almost 3.5 pts. There has been 32 states polls in the last 3 days - Romney leads in 5, 2 show a tie and rest show Obama wins in the respective states. This does not support Dick Morris contention that Romney is going to win big.

For Romney to Win, State Polls Must be Statistically Biased

This really is the only hope left for Romney and this would make a very entertaining to watch unfold election night - but I also believe is fools gold.

[Kung Wu]

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Last Weekend Update. Polls who that Romney momentum stunted and Obama has tied it up. Ultimately it means this is now a state by state race. Looking at the latest state polls - it pretty much look like good news for Obama. 5 of the last 6 polls in Ohio have Obama up by an average of almost 3.5 pts. There has been 32 states polls in the last 3 days - Romney leads in 5, 2 show a tie and rest show Obama wins in the respective states. This does not support Dick Morris contention that Romney is going to win big.



This really is the only hope left for Romney and this would make a very entertaining to watch unfold election night - but I also believe is fools gold.

So you are predicting landslide Obama?

[SB Shock]

So you are predicting landslide Obama?

Nope. It looks to be about 49-49 and some change in the popular vote with Obama winning the electoral college. The states that Romney needs to pull off a electoral victory just don't seem to be there for him.

[Kung Wu]

Nope. It looks to be about 49-49 and some change in the popular vote with Obama winning the electoral college. The states that Romney needs to pull off a electoral victory just don't seem to be there for him.

Gotcha.