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I haven't read this anywhere, which means it's probably very wrong, but ... is Colorado in play? Looking at numbers past and present I get this vibe that CO will maybe be a lot closer than most expect.
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
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Updated (10/29/2024)
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PA: Harris (59% to 31%)
NC: Trump (34% to 33%)
GA: Trump (49% to 45%)
AZ: Trump (42% to 35%)
WI: Harris (36% to 23%)
MI: Harris (48% to 41%)
NV: Trump (40% to 35%)
Before (10/27/2024)
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PA: Harris (60% to 30%)
NC: Trump (35% to 33%)
GA: Trump (49% to 45%)
AZ: Trump (42% to 36%)
WI: Harris (35% to 23%)
MI: Harris (52% to 38%)
NV: Trump (41% to 35%)
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Michigan was a huge jump in only two days?Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Interesting:
CO: Harris (31% to 28%) -- Interesting because Independents make up 41% of the vote there. And while they have went left recently, they did go for Bush in 2004.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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I am no longer one who gambles much, even in the stock market, but a family member who leans on me asked me about Trump's stock in the spring when it was $50-60 and I told him to forget about it. Lighting money on fire. I quietly put in an order if the stock dropped below $15 (what I considered far enough below value to take a chance) before Nov 1. I wonder if I should tell him yet? The last few days have not been for the faint of heart, but it's been fun! I might go buy a couple of fancy, new park benches to place around the city.Comment
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There's been a lot of speculation that because of Trump's appeal to "low propensity" voters, that a big turnout, normally reserved as a celebration for the left, actually would benefit the right this time around.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
I do NOT prescribe to that notion, at all. Those thoughts are aligned with folks that are convinced that A)the left has a huge advantage with the college educated AND B) Trump voters are stupid.
And that is an extremely narrow and imho skewed analysis of a few statistics.
Voting totals being down (across the board), especially from 2020, I believe, almost has to benefit Trump, bigly. I am FAR more excited (cautiously so) about registered Dems that have voted early being down say 10-20% than I am about Trump closing the voting gap on early voting by 2 or 3 times those numbers. FAR more.
Cannibalization being the most prominent of those concerns. If Rep early voting is up, it could possible eat at every single vote we're expecting to get next Tuesday. However, if Dem early voting is down, the chances they will make up those numbers next Tuesday are much more remote. Actually, they are almost impossible to calculate.Comment
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I'm curious how many red/swing states have abortion proposals on the ballot this time around. That is the GOPs achillies heel. And sort of a poison pill on ballots that can even up any advantage the GOP has."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Please explain what these percentages are measuring - they are meaningless to me otherwiseOriginally posted by Kung Wu View PostComment
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Excellent question, and one that has nuances BUT, as you alluded to, is likely a huge problem for the GOP.Originally posted by ShockerPrez View Post
States with some kind of measure on the ballot this November:
Montana (hugely important Senate seat)
Missouri
Nevada (swing state and Senate seat)
Arizona (HUGE)
Colorado (pretty much squelches any long shot hope there and jeopardizes House seats)
South Dakota
Nebraska (probably takes NE-2 out of the equation for the GOP)
NY (could drag some house seats the GOP otherwise should win)
MD (Hogan was dead, but this seals the coffin)
FL (probably doesn't put the state in play, but could affect Senate and House seats potentially)
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Voted. The line was quite lengthy by the time I left. I waited 45 minutes. because I got there at 9:15. Doors opened at 10. I was about #15 in line at 9:15 am. I was out of there by 10:10 am.
My advice. Show up an hour early. Take a small folding chair and iced coffee or something, and you'll do fine. Other than that, you wait.
And then you end up waiting and talking to somebody who may look like this:
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"You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"Comment
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Updated for today's results. PA early voting would seem to indicate lack of enthusiasm for Harris. Running well below 2020.Originally posted by SB Shock View Post
Meanwhile, in Kansas, 336,000 have voted early. In 2020, there were 371,854 in-person ballots (81,934 Democrats, 211,142 Republicans),
Breakdown for 2024:
Democrats 119,200 and Republicans 168,500Comment
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My polling place was pretty easy. There was a steady stream of people coming in, but the longest wait was to show my ID and sign in.Originally posted by JVShocker View PostComment
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