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The gambling markets now believe Kamala is less likely to win than Joe was at his worst before officially stepping down.
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
I don't understand how the betting markets and the polls can be so out of phase.Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post
- People putting their money where their mouth is clearly see Trump way ahead.
- Detailed demographic polls are now starting to show there is likely to be a game changing shift of the Black and Hispanic vote going toward Trump to the tune of potential record numbers.
- Trump has a slight edge (but within the margin of error) of every single battleground state.
Yet the national pollsters are saying it's dead even.
Either the gamblers and demographic polls are extremely wrong, or the national pollsters are missing it badly. Somebody has to be wrong here.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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I would think that the time to get election results would be faster and faster as we progressed technologically. But, I guess not."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Because the betting market isn't meant to be a prediction - it's meant to funnel money to one side or the other in order to make money for the books.Originally posted by Kung Wu View PostBrummett throws, STRUCK HIM OUT! THE SHOCKERS ARE NATIONAL CHAMPIONS! AN UNBELIEVABLE STORY!Comment
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I am only an interested observer (over time) in election results and how they roll in, but I do believe that the folks (mostly GOP obviously) that are touting the early mail in/in person voting and how it appears to be benefitting Trump are not completely reading the tea leaves correctly.
Also, in September, Harris out raised Trump $223 million to $63 million, more than 3 to 1. To me, that's the more important "money" to follow.
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Well the betting market is a collective, weighted prediction by a ton of people willing to put a lot of money on the line. Bettors have been equal to or more accurate than the polls in post 2000 elections.Originally posted by Onegreatracer View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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All true. The monkey in the wrench is the polling. Polling methods were way off in 2016 due to Trump. So they tried to adjust. They got better (closer) in 2020. Still off, but better.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
However, in '20, so much changed it's hard to know (may never fully know) the impact of those changes. Polls were still off in '22 (obviously an off Presidential year) but "off" in the other way. I think most (if not all) of the major pollsters out there are literally grasping at straws. So much has changed in the last decade or so. How do you account for it? I doubt the pollsters have it right this time around either, but maybe it's closer? I guess we'll know in a couple of weeks or so.
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One thing I have found disappointing in this presidential year campaign is there has been very little if any discussion of our deficit spending and national debt and when they someone does talk about, with the exception Rand Paul, it usually full of half-truths and gaslighting (lies).
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter - Follow
You can't make this up: Total US debt has jumped by $473 BILLION over the last 3 weeks alone, to a record $35.8 trillion. This means the US has taken on $1,450 of debt for EVERY American over the last 3 weeks alone.
US deficit spending as a percentage of GDP remains at World War 2 levels. 2024 marks the first year with over $1 trillion in interest expense. Unsustainable is an understatement, something must change.
It's hard to see a way back from this disaster. This is six figures of debt for every American man, woman, child. Everyone has a part in this. Everyone owns a piece of this debt. And the more the government soaks up debt, the more debt costs the business sector; this calamity affects the economy from top to bottom, and we just keep racking it up. The federal debt affects interest rates, affects stock market volatility, and has the potential to destabilize the entire financial system.
There are three ways out of this mess. We can repudiate the debt, which would send the global economy into a tailspin. We can inflate our way out of it, but that would take a Weimar Republic/Zimbabwe level of inflation at this point to pay off the national debt with worthless dollars.
Oh, we could grow our way out of it. But that would require a federal government that is willing to implement pro-growth policies.
This doesn't even take into account the unfunded promises of Social Security and Medicare which are very substantial. This numbers can be kind of confusing depending on how they are calculated and presented. However, in 2023 Medicare spent $1.037 trillion on medical services while payroll taxes and monthly premiums raised $437 billion. A shortfall of $470 billion. Medicare's cumulative cash shortfall through 2023 was around $7 trillion which has contributed to the national debt. Social Security ran a shortfall of around $100 billion in 2023 and the SS Trust funds are expected to be exhausted in about 10 years from now.
Here is a report on Social Security and Medicare through 2023: https://www.americanactionforum.org/...curity-report/Comment
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Election Exclusive: British Advisors to Kamala Harris Hope to "Kill Musk's Twitter"
England, not Russia, is the culprit in a real foreign election interference story, as the leaked Stateside plans of an advisory group with close ties to Prime Minister Keir Starmer show
Paul D. Thacker and Matt Taibbi
Oct 22, 2024
In an explosive leak with ramifications for the upcoming U.S. presidential election, internal documents from the Center for Countering Digital Hate—whose founder is British political operative Morgan McSweeney, now advising the Kamala Harris campaign—show the group plans in writing to “kill Musk’s Twitter” while strengthening ties with the Biden/Harris administration and Democrats like Senator Amy Klobuchar, who has introduced multiple bills to regulate online “misinformation.” Klobuchar’s office declined repeated requests for comment.
The CCDH documents carry particular importance because McSweeney’s Labour Together operatives have been teaching election strategy to Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, leading Politico to call Labour and the Democrats “sister parties.” CCDH’s focus on “Kill Musk’s Twitter” also adds to legal questions about the nonprofit’s tax-exempt status as a 501(c)(3) organization.
According to the IRS, CCDH could lose its special tax status if “a substantial part of its activities is attempting to influence legislation.” Yet, CCDH’s third item on its annual priority list is “Trigger EU and UK regulatory action” and the group previously employed the firm Lot Sixteen to lobby congressional offices on “misinformation” in Washington.
So it looks lack its back to war vs England redux.Comment
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Not bursting my bubble, its well known that the bettors got 2016 wrong, but so did the pollsters. Bigly. I don't know what PredictWise is but most articles I have read claim that bettors were by and large more conservative on Hillary's "victory" than the polls were indicating.Originally posted by WuShock Reaper View Post
I'll check out PredictWise when at the con though .. that's interesting.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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This hasn’t gotten enough attention:
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