2022 Mid-Term Election

[SB Shock]

What looked like a slam dunk for the Republican to take back the house and the senate is now slipping away. Momentum is in the Democrats favor. At the start of the summer, Republican were projected to take the Senate back 51 to 49. Now is expected to be 50/50 (with risk Democrats could take 1 or 2 more seats).

Republican only have a 41% chance of taking back the senate. Senate is most important as they control the appointment of judges.

Key races:

Republican Must Wins or Democrat Victory

NC: Ted Bud (R) leads 49.8% to 46.5% but is narrowing
Wisc: Ron Johnson (R) leads 51.7% to 48.3% is narrowing
GA: Hershel Walker (R) trails 49%% to 48.9%

Republican Races they would need to win at least 1 to take back the Senate (assuming they win the 3 above)

NV: Laxalt (R) trails 47.8% to 49% to Catherine Masto (D) is starting to pull away.
Penn: Mehmet Oz (R) trails 46.8% to 50% Oz had early momentum, but Fetterman is now pulling away.
Az: Blake Masters (R) trails 50.7% to 47.1% to Mark Kelly. Masters had closed the gap in early July, but Kelly has started pulling away.


House still looks good Republican. Republican have 80% chance of taking back the house. It had been much larger. In the house projections, republican were up at the start of summer 238 to 197. That has slipped to 231 to 204.

The Kansas house seat may be the canary that tells whether Republicans are doing well or at risk on election night.

KS: Amanda Adkins (R) was leading comfortably, but race is narrowing and her lead has slipped to 48% to 47.8% to Sharice Davids (D). This race is part of 16 races rated a tossup.

[Kung Wu]

Will all Dem upsets be due to mail in ballots?

[WuDrWu]

The Democrats keeping the House would require a systemic change in the political climate that is almost impossible to see happening. Redistricting and moving of seats from state to state has all but assured a GOP House next January.

The Senate was never a slam dunk for the GOP. In fact, it was always going to take the GOP drawing to an inside straight and picking off at least 1 (if not 3) states they were always behind in and winning 80% or more of toss up races. The math was never good. Couple that with literally terrible candidates in Pennsylvania and Georgia where both Oz and Walker have all kinds of shortcomings and you have the situation we're in now. The one saving grace is that both of their challengers also have a variety of issues as well.

Even an average candidate in Georgia would have won their seat by 7% or more this time around. Pennsylvania is a little more difficult, but again, a good candidate could have won with room to spare.

As long as there isn't clear leadership at the top of the GOP (and there absolutely is an issue now) then we're going to continue to see less than good results for Republicans around the country.

[shox1989]

Real Clear Politics Senate map lists two more toss-ups (in addition to the states that SB Shock lists): Ohio and New Hampshire. Ohio is an open seat currently held by the Rs. Apparently they view JD Vance as a weak candidate. New Hampshire on the other hand is currently held by a Democrat who is running for re-election. New Hampshire does seem pretty purple, but Ohio seems to be pretty red these days. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tions-map.html

[Kung Wu]

Real Clear Politics Senate map lists two more toss-ups (in addition to the states that SB Shock lists): Ohio and New Hampshire.

Who do you want to win the Senate -- and why -- Republicans or Democrats?

[WuShockFan]

What do you expect when the media is carrying water for the Democrats and liberals. I don't have cable, but I was in a place recently where they had CNN on. Just in that one hour, it was wall-to-wall coverage about the January 6 hearings and they had Rob Reiner on literally talking about "white Christian nationalism" (he used that exact phrase) as being a major threat to our country. The media creates whatever worldview in the population that they want to create. They are against Republicans, they are against conservatives, and they are against Christians.

With everything that is going on in our country over the past two years, they talk about white Christian nationalism and the January 6 hearings. Not about inflation, not about the billions disappearing into a black hole in Ukraine, one of the most corrupt countries in the world, not about the millions of people from ALL COUNTRIES pouring over the U.S.-Mexico border, not about how the culture of our country is being changed by the authoritarian cancel-all-dissent woke mob who have infiltrated every institution from education to medicine to media to business, not about how the average person is being priced out of freaking everything that we need to live from housing to education to health care and now even food and gas. All you need to do is watch one hour of this crap and you can see exactly what they do.

If the polls are tightening, it's because the media is going into overdrive to promote Democrat and liberal causes and denigrate Republican, conservative, and Christian causes. Too few of the people think for themselves. And Christian morals are in decline among the people. You can literally have the highest inflation in history and these people will vote for more Democrats because some Republican said he didn't believe in gay marriage.

[SB Shock]

The Democrats keeping the House would require a systemic change in the political climate that is almost impossible to see happening.

Mid-terms elections is always about turnout. Usually the party out of power is energized. But the Supreme Court decision on Roe vs. Wade was the change in political climate for the Democrats. They are now energized.

Republicans not so much. Republican seems to have actually liked Roe vs. Wade because it gave them a cause to whine about but not be able to do anything about - the perfect issue. As Kansas showed - pushed comes to shove, they are not really willing to walk-the-walk and actually govern. The would rather have un-elected judges to legislate for them.

It may not be enough for the democrats to keep the house, but the democrats will at the very least be able to proclaim "momentum".

The Senate was never a slam dunk for the GOP. In fact, it was always going to take the GOP drawing to an inside straight and picking off at least 1 (if not 3) states they were always behind in and winning 80% or more of toss up races. The math was never good.

You are wrong, the math was there for the Republicans to take back the senate. But you hit the nail on the head below - you can't run bad candidates and expect to win.

Couple that with literally terrible candidates in Pennsylvania and Georgia ....

[SB Shock]

If the polls are tightening, it's because the media is going into overdrive to promote Democrat and liberal causes and denigrate Republican, conservative, and Christian causes.

Watch for the Biden administration to extend the COVID emergency order - that continue to give them the ability of mailing million of ballots.

Too few of the people think for themselves. And Christian morals are in decline among the people. You can literally have the highest inflation in history and these people will vote for more Democrats because some Republican said he didn't believe in gay marriage.

...or say they are against Abortion. The Kansas primary really fleshed out the pretenders.

Republican party is already indicating they would like to be rid of themselves of the Christians and their morality issues.

[Shockm]

If the polls are tightening, it's because the media is going into overdrive to promote Democrat and liberal causes and denigrate Republican, conservative, and Christian causes.

Polls always tighten the closer the races are, especially in a polarized country. Too many things can happen in a short time so who knows, but inflation is here to stay, so I think while it probably won't be a massacre, it could very well end up better for Republicans. The biggest wildcard might be if Trump gets antsy, and announces early. There could be push back to that.

Too few of the people think for themselves. And Christian morals are in decline among the people. You can literally have the highest inflation in history and these people will vote for more Democrats because some Republican said he didn't believe in gay marriage.

People are showing their true colors, and our culture won't be the first one to go the wrong way. Men and women too, are created to wander toward wrong, and have "free will" to fixate on themselves. It happened in Sodom, Gomorrah, and Ninevah just to name a few wandering cultures in human history, and it didn't end well for them. Cultures do recover. I'm not saying that will happen here but maybe.

[shox1989]

Who do you want to win the Senate -- and why -- Republicans or Democrats?

I really don't trust politicians, so I would prefer divided government. Force them to kind of police each other. I assume the House will go Republican and the Pres is a D, so I guess I don't care that much which way the Senate goes. Either way we should have divided government.

[pinstripers]

After this clown and Hillary exposed, and Schumer trying to get everybody killed on the streets, Republicans should win every single race, but we won't. We'll **** it up.

[ShockerPrez]

After this new climate bill goes into effect, after the GOP takes control and the economy goes further tits up, the Dems will blame the GOP for making things worse.

Brilliant. They really do hate America. They don't want Americans to prosper, they just want power. None of this stuff helps anyone. The only thing that helps the most people is the government doing nothing. But no one votes for doing nothing, like America was founded on. It's just a steady flow towards tyranny. It's human history. Getting people to fear everything is a sure-fire way to wrestle more freedom from them.

Sad. Blame the Dems, sure. But the GOP doing nothing to reverse it when they get the chance is just as bad. And the one guy who at least talked about reversing it, half the party hated him more than the Dems. WTF? It's all a grift. 30 trillion so far isn't enough? 30 Trillion dollars!!! If 30 trillion isn't enough to solve a single effing problen then why in the hell are we paying taxes? 75% of these crooks should be in jail. Corrupt motherf*****s.

[Kung Wu]

I like your attitude!

[wichshock65]

After this new climate bill goes into effect, after the GOP takes control and the economy goes further tits up, the Dems will blame the GOP for making things worse.

Brilliant. They really do hate America. They don't want Americans to prosper, they just want power. None of this stuff helps anyone. The only thing that helps the most people is the government doing nothing. But no one votes for doing nothing, like America was founded on. It's just a steady flow towards tyranny. It's human history. Getting people to fear everything is a sure-fire way to wrestle more freedom from them.

Sad. Blame the Dems, sure. But the GOP doing nothing to reverse it when they get the chance is just as bad. And the one guy who at least talked about reversing it, half the party hated him more than the Dems. WTF? It's all a grift. 30 trillion so far isn't enough? 30 Trillion dollars!!! If 30 trillion isn't enough to solve a single effing problen then why in the hell are we paying taxes? 75% of these crooks should be in jail. Corrupt motherf*****s.

I feel like you're holding back. You should just say what you are thinking.

[SB Shock]

Sad. Blame the Dems, sure. But the GOP doing nothing to reverse it when they get the chance is just as bad.

Republican don't know how to lead. Once they get in power, they try and spend to stay in power. Last time they had anybody with a vision was Newt G.