Coronavirus 2019-nCov: Political Thread

[wufan]

You are already being tracked extensively by Google/Apple/Cell Phone provider. They are using this data for their gain. I suspect they will figure out now how to monetize it and sell the data to the government.

Cell phone tracking, while slippery slope and scary, is not the same as what I read they were doing in South Korea, and what I thought you were referring to.

So, without specifics, Apple can sell my demographic information as part of a package. No one has any business tracking me specifically except in the investigation of a crime.

[Kung Wu]

It's all about herd immunity.

It was and will NEVER be about curing a virus (there may never be a cure for this or any future virus, just like there isn't for influenza).
It was and will NEVER be about stopping a virus (impossible).
It was and will ALWAYS be about slowing this or any future virus down until test kits and medical resources are in place.

Natural herd immunity is the ONLY inevitable conclusion, barring getting lucky and finding an actual cure. The problem with allowing _unchecked_ herd immunity is, you end up losing a decent percent of the herd because there aren't enough resources to mitigate that many sick people at one time.

If resources are in place for the medical community to handle the load: It's back to business, with hot spots having to assess their own risk and make decisions for themselves.

The way I see it, these are the primary resources required for each locale to minimize the impact in their area:

1) Testing kits available on a national scale? Check.
2) United States PPE manufacturers tooled up and handling the demand? Check and check.
3) NY+NJ stabilizing and able to start freeing up equipment? Check.
4) Is 170,000 ventilators enough to go around nationally? Check.

If I've glossed over some key resources that aren't available -- fire away.

New York Metro, New Orleans, and about 6-7 other hot spots still have work to do, but the resources are there for them to handle it the best they can.

Your personal locale may not be back to business, and depending on your personal risk you might need to continue to self isolate, but IMO the country in general should be considering revving back up at this point in time.

[ShockerFever]

It's all about herd immunity.

It was and will NEVER be about curing a virus (there may never be a cure for this or any future virus, just like there isn't for influenza).
It was and will NEVER be about stopping a virus (impossible).
It was and will ALWAYS be about slowing this or any future virus down until test kits and medical resources are in place.

Natural herd immunity is the ONLY inevitable conclusion, barring getting lucky and finding an actual cure. The problem with allowing _unchecked_ herd immunity is, you end up losing a decent percent of the herd because there aren't enough resources to mitigate that many sick people at one time.

If resources are in place for the medical community to handle the load: It's back to business, with hot spots having to assess their own risk and make decisions for themselves.

The way I see it, these are the primary resources required for each locale to minimize the impact in their area:

1) Testing kits available on a national scale? Check.
2) United States PPE manufacturers tooled up and handling the demand? Check and check.
3) NY+NJ stabilizing and able to start freeing up equipment? Check.
4) Is 170,000 ventilators enough to go around nationally? Check.

If I've glossed over some key resources that aren't available -- fire away.

New York Metro, New Orleans, and about 6-7 other hot spots still have work to do, but the resources are there for them to handle it the best they can.

Your personal locale may not be back to business, and depending on your personal risk you might need to continue to self isolate, but IMO the country in general should be considering revving back up at this point in time.

Exactly this.

I keep hearing about people not wanting to do anything until a vaccine comes out. I hope the realize a vaccine isn't a cure. The flu isn't eradicated because of the vaccine. Sure it helps lessen symptoms and if you match the correct strain, it can stop infection. But this virus will too mutate and the vaccine won't be as effective either.

You cannot STOP a virus as you stated. Unless you plan on living in isolation the rest of your life, you will likely get it, or a form of it at some point in your life. Now, whether we are adequately prepared for treatments, essential supplies, etc. is one thing. That's why we're isolating. NOT to stop the virus. But to stop the spread of it. I'm not sure how realistic it is to stay in isolation for 18 months (until a vaccine comes out). So what is there left to do? As soon as things taper off (knowing full well an autumn return is likely), we have to start getting back to normal function. Sure, we can be extra cautious, but we can't just stop. The virus isn't, so why should we?

Having enough tests available would really help expedite the process with antibody testing. I'd be real curious to know how many people in this country have actually been infected. I think it's possible it could be into the tens of millions by now.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

It's all about herd immunity.

It was and will NEVER be about curing a virus (there may never be a cure for this or any future virus, just like there isn't for influenza).
It was and will NEVER be about stopping a virus (impossible).
It was and will ALWAYS be about slowing this or any future virus down until test kits and medical resources are in place.

Natural herd immunity is the ONLY inevitable conclusion, barring getting lucky and finding an actual cure. The problem with allowing _unchecked_ herd immunity is, you end up losing a decent percent of the herd because there aren't enough resources to mitigate that many sick people at one time.

If resources are in place for the medical community to handle the load: It's back to business, with hot spots having to assess their own risk and make decisions for themselves.

The way I see it, these are the primary resources required for each locale to minimize the impact in their area:

1) Testing kits available on a national scale? Check.
2) United States PPE manufacturers tooled up and handling the demand? Check and check.
3) NY+NJ stabilizing and able to start freeing up equipment? Check.
4) Is 170,000 ventilators enough to go around nationally? Check.

If I've glossed over some key resources that aren't available -- fire away.

New York Metro, New Orleans, and about 6-7 other hot spots still have work to do, but the resources are there for them to handle it the best they can.

Your personal locale may not be back to business, and depending on your personal risk you might need to continue to self isolate, but IMO the country in general should be considering revving back up at this point in time.

Where did you get the information on testing kits being widely available? Note the reference to Friday below. That was yesterday Friday. While Philly is a hot spot (and this is in the Philly area), it speaks to a lack of capacity and scalability.

https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/cor...heres-why.html

Lehigh Valley Health Network, which is operating COVID-19 test centers throughout the region, announced changes in its criteria for who can get the test in response to “continued regional and national shortages.”

The new criteria, effective immediately, mean only symptomatic people ages 65 and older, symptomatic people at a higher risk of complications and other defined symptomatic at-risk people will be tested for COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus.

The health network announced the change on Friday afternoon. It released a statement that further explained its definitions for at-risk people.

I don't disagree with your premise regarding testing, but not only do we need to have kits available, we also need surge capacity if hotspots appear.

[Kung Wu]

Where did you get the information on testing kits being widely available? Note the reference to Friday below. That was yesterday Friday. While Philly is a hot spot (and this is in the Philly area), it speaks to a lack of capacity and scalability.

It's embarrassing. There are plenty of testing kits and labs ALL OVER the country.

The next time someone says we should centralize health care, just get a load of how the central government has created decades of bureaucracy and protocol that are infuriating:

Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

That article has a leftist bent that tries to make the case that we need "more federal leadership". Uh no, it's the reliance on central controls that got you where you are. We need a much more PRIVATE health care system with a LOT less regulation and centralized control, so that our hospitals and labs can be nimble.

STAT.

[wsushox1]

It's embarrassing. There are plenty of testing kits and labs ALL OVER the country.

The next time someone says we should centralize health care, just get a load of how the central government has created decades of bureaucracy and protocol that are infuriating:

Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

That article has a leftist bent that tries to make the case that we need "more federal leadership". Uh no, it's the reliance on central controls that got you where you are. We need a much more PRIVATE health care system with a LOT less regulation and centralized control, so that our hospitals and labs can be nimble.

STAT.

This does have a bit of private sector problems though? Uncompatible EHR's, contracts that don't allow them to use certain labs, and a lack of a national clearinghouse to send tests through. I mean sure, there is for sure beauracracy but also private hospitals not being nimble themselves lol



How do you read that as the government getting in the way? Or as that showing the nimbleness of the private sector?

The private sector has an inherent desire to be as "streamlined" as possible. They have no economic incentive to prepare for a once in a century pandemic. They want to cut costs on labor and have just enough operating space to deal with slight surges. They can't possibly scale-up drastically in a situation of unprecedented demand. I'm not saying more government is a solution, but the private sector is far, far from blameless.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

It's embarrassing. There are plenty of testing kits and labs ALL OVER the country.

The next time someone says we should centralize health care, just get a load of how the central government has created decades of bureaucracy and protocol that are infuriating:

Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

That article has a leftist bent that tries to make the case that we need "more federal leadership". Uh no, it's the reliance on central controls that got you where you are. We need a much more PRIVATE health care system with a LOT less regulation and centralized control, so that our hospitals and labs can be nimble.

STAT.

I wouldn't be so quick to call bullshit until I was able to determine what is driving the shortage. It could be a supply chain issue. The article you cited seems to imply this:
"The call is coming from other directions, too. On 8 April, three congressional leaders in Washington DC sent a letter to Alex Azar, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, to create a national strategy for testing. “Members of Congress continue to be deeply alarmed about the reports of testing shortfalls and testing supply availability,” they wrote. “It is past time that the administration used every tool in its power to fix these problems.”

And as far as your calling this article something with a leftist bent, that is a label and is based on how you context things. You are a libertarian. Seems like 11-20% of the country are libertarian, therefore your views are to the right of an average reader.

I got this from Wikipedia:

"The Express-Times is a daily newspaper based in Easton, Pennsylvania, with an emphasis on local news in the Lehigh Valley.

The paper has won awards in both New Jersey and Pennsylvania."

So do you think the Topeka Capital-Journal is a leftist newspaper? How about the Newton Kansan? (Note I am not going to include Kansas.com in this group, I don't think you like them very well, let's start with a couple of representative 'community' newspapers and go from there.

So back to my point: Unless and until we can manage the supply of these tests and be able to manage surges (which if we are aggressive about opening up the economy we will have them) it would probably not be a good idea.

I would also think it would be prudent for the FDA to have some flexibility in being able to override some of their regulations to expidite approval of testing and development of preventive medicines and therapies. Seems like they don't have a method for being able to declare an emergency in order to manage crisis situations.

And regards your comments on decentralized controls, unless you have a framework over them, you will get a really poor result. Some areas/systems will make prudent decisions and some will make really stupid ones. Make everyone operate within a framework and manage the outliers. In that way, you will have a truly decentralized system with consistent results.

[SB Shock]

Cell phone tracking, while slippery slope and scary, is not the same as what I read they were doing in South Korea, and what I thought you were referring to.

What did read they did in SK that was so scary?

Their government was very transparent and wanted to build public trust so they could build a very high level of civic awareness and voluntary cooperation. They were tactical in what got shutdown, and for the most part restaurants, malls and factories remained open in the country. Their unemployment levels practically are where they were when this started.

What I have also read was their success was because they implemented widespread testing early, especially drive thru testing (and for the most part it was free). They also were very thorough in contact tracing and got people quarantined quickly. They used technology to actually inform the public of problem areas that need to be avoided.

https://theweek.com/articles/907856/south-koreas-coronavirus-success

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

This does have a bit of private sector problems though? Uncompatible EHR's, contracts that don't allow them to use certain labs, and a lack of a national clearinghouse to send tests through. I mean sure, there is for sure beauracracy but also private hospitals not being nimble themselves lol



How do you read that as the government getting in the way? Or as that showing the nimbleness of the private sector?

The private sector has an inherent desire to be as "streamlined" as possible. They have no economic incentive to prepare for a once in a century pandemic. They want to cut costs on labor and have just enough operating space to deal with slight surges. They can't possibly scale-up drastically in a situation of unprecedented demand. I'm not saying more government is a solution, but the private sector is far, far from blameless.

I absolutely agree with this. Our hospital system is not built to handle surges, it is built to operate without much excess capacity, which is why community hospitals are closing (like the one in Wellington just did).

If we did not have FEMA (to set up emergency hospital capacity) OR the military (to manage the supply chain) things would be worse than they are now.

To me, libertarianism is a concept, it is not a practical concept, just as comunism is a concept and is not a practical concept. The true answer lies in letting government manage the things they can manage well, and allow for as much private enterprise and competition as possible.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Exactly this.

I keep hearing about people not wanting to do anything until a vaccine comes out. I hope the realize a vaccine isn't a cure. The flu isn't eradicated because of the vaccine. Sure it helps lessen symptoms and if you match the correct strain, it can stop infection. But this virus will too mutate and the vaccine won't be as effective either.

You cannot STOP a virus as you stated. Unless you plan on living in isolation the rest of your life, you will likely get it, or a form of it at some point in your life. Now, whether we are adequately prepared for treatments, essential supplies, etc. is one thing. That's why we're isolating. NOT to stop the virus. But to stop the spread of it. I'm not sure how realistic it is to stay in isolation for 18 months (until a vaccine comes out). So what is there left to do? As soon as things taper off (knowing full well an autumn return is likely), we have to start getting back to normal function. Sure, we can be extra cautious, but we can't just stop. The virus isn't, so why should we?

Having enough tests available would really help expedite the process with antibody testing. I'd be real curious to know how many people in this country have actually been infected. I think it's possible it could be into the tens of millions by now.

I want to get back out. I want to go back to work and see my co-workers. I am WFH and visit with them every day, but it is not the same as being in the office.

I am also at risk because I have a significant risk factor. I'm the guy who's rolling up his sleeves when the flu vaccine comes out every year as a result.

I think being on lockdown is not practical. This first wave will allow us to develop treatments and therapies that will save lives in future waves (which will hopefully not be as bad as this one was).

I'm looking forward to getting out (hopefully soon, but not until metrics suggest it is safe (note - not pointing at my head like our president and saying 'it's all up here' - that was really ignorant...)).

[SB Shock]

It's embarrassing. There are plenty of testing kits and labs ALL OVER the country.

I will disagree.

If you listen to the state of Kansas and Wichita health departments they say they are rationing tests and they wish the could test more of the population, but can't. They are working to be able to get more testing available based on their briefings, but it seems to be a slow process.

https://www.kwch.com/content/news/Se...569496861.html

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020...1211586288706/

There is good news in Johnson county, they are planning to implement random testing next week of 2,000 so they can get an idea where they actually stand as a community.

https://fox4kc.com/tracking-coronavi...county-kansas/

[wufan]

What did read they did in SK that was so scary?

Their government was very transparent and wanted to build public trust so they could build a very high level of civic awareness and voluntary cooperation. They were tactical in what got shutdown, and for the most part restaurants, malls and factories remained open in the country. Their unemployment levels practically are where they were when this started.

What I have also read was their success was because they implemented widespread testing early, especially drive thru testing (and for the most part it was free). They also were very thorough in contact tracing and got people quarantined quickly. They used technology to actually inform the public of problem areas that need to be avoided.

https://theweek.com/articles/907856/south-koreas-coronavirus-success

Police calling twice a day to make sure you didn’t leave your house.

tracking your phone and credit cards and notifying everyone where you go.

Forcing those they were in the area into quarantine.

Doxing sick and thought to be in contact with sick.

Maybe I misunderstood what is happening.

[1979Shocker]

Trump Lashes Out at Fauci Amid Criticism of Slow Virus Response

[ShockCrazy]

Exactly this.

I keep hearing about people not wanting to do anything until a vaccine comes out. I hope the realize a vaccine isn't a cure. The flu isn't eradicated because of the vaccine. Sure it helps lessen symptoms and if you match the correct strain, it can stop infection. But this virus will too mutate and the vaccine won't be as effective either.

You cannot STOP a virus as you stated. Unless you plan on living in isolation the rest of your life, you will likely get it, or a form of it at some point in your life. Now, whether we are adequately prepared for treatments, essential supplies, etc. is one thing. That's why we're isolating. NOT to stop the virus. But to stop the spread of it. I'm not sure how realistic it is to stay in isolation for 18 months (until a vaccine comes out). So what is there left to do? As soon as things taper off (knowing full well an autumn return is likely), we have to start getting back to normal function. Sure, we can be extra cautious, but we can't just stop. The virus isn't, so why should we?

Having enough tests available would really help expedite the process with antibody testing. I'd be real curious to know how many people in this country have actually been infected. I think it's possible it could be into the tens of millions by now.

This is the problem with all major sources comparing this to the flu. It leads to people misunderstanding viruses and assuming this behaves or will behave the exact same. You say you can't stop a virus, but you might look into the MMR vaccine and the impact it has had at basically killing the spread of all 3 in the US, at least until recently when anti-vax movements have popularized. All three, measles, mumps and rubella are RNA viruses as are COVID-19 and the flu. The difference is the previous 3 slowly mutate as thus we can vaccinate very effectively, as of so far COVID-19 seems to be slowly mutating, raising our chances of a truly effective vaccine.

[ShockerFever]

Trump Lashes Out at Fauci Amid Criticism of Slow Virus Response

I hate how a crisis gets politicized. So predictable. The Dems were complaining when Trump closed China down in February. Now they’re complaining because he didn’t act quick enough. GMAFB.

We could also save thousands of lives every year by shutting things down in the winter to limit the spread of the flu. How come we aren’t doing that? So flu deaths matter less than corona deaths?

We just can’t stop bitching about **** even against a common enemy. So over it.