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Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded
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Did you ever know any psychology major chicks in college?
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Did you ever know any psychology major chicks in college?Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
Okay, let's get this done! I was for replacing the nominee, the White House was expecting to have to replace the nominee after the Ford testimony, but Kavanaugh pulled off the impossible and beat back the entire Liberal machine with his heart and passion. Now LET'S GET THIS DONE.
Why wait for Monday to do the final vote? Get them all done today before the weekend **** show cycle where they find out Kavanaugh was the 2nd gunman in the Kennedy Assassination.
T
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When I posted my 50/50 prediction, I thought people saying "it's over" were vastly underestimating the chances that Republicans create enough of a spectacle that they could act as if everything was fully vetted and then confirm him. Now, I think people are overreacting the other way (notably, CB, you appear to have been in both camps!).
Yesterdays testimony from Kavanaugh was absolutely perfect for my proposed course of action (i.e., come out, deny, and then withdraw your name). He came across 1000x better than during that Fox interview. That said, no one has ever seen a judge do that. He was calling out democrats, he was showing self-pity, he yelled. These are not things a lot of people are comfortable with as a Supreme Court justice. But man, if he wanted to withdraw his name now, the Republicans could get anyone in the entire world confirmed.
The American Bar Association has come out and said an investigation needs to be done. I do wish that would be taken into consideration. If the AMA opposed the nominee for the director of HHS, that should be taken into consideration. The same is here. If the leading legal association is asking for an investigation, that should be respected. I think some people are undervaluing how much of an impact that could play. I also think people are undervaluing how effective Blasey Ford's testimony was by just assuming that Collins and Murkowski are now on board with Kavanaugh.
I definitely think his testimony yesterday has positively impacted his chances, but I think we're at like 75-80% chance at this point.Comment
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Moran and Flake are both going to confirmComment
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I didn't want to disparage Ford yesterday, but I agree that she did not come off well. Squeaky, half-mumbling voice that I'm sure is not her normal form of communication, acting like she didn't know the answer to easy questions, and attorneys on either side framing her in like parents supervising a kindergartner in a church pew. She is a smart, educated woman who has to speak in front of a crowd as part of her profession, so it all came off a bit like a part she was playing in a grand act. I'm not saying she might not have some legitimate pain in her past, but it all came off fairly contrived, at least from behind my lens.
Ultimately though, the impression that Ford or Kavanaugh made nationally just came down to who's team you were on before yesterday's proceedings even started. We have 49 Republican senators voting yes, 2 Republican senators waffling one way or the other, and 10 Democratic senators from Trump-carried states (3 of which voted for Gorsuch) who are probably trying to decide if this is a political hill they want to die on.Last edited by SHOCKvalue; September 28, 2018, 10:51 AM.Comment
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This is all getting so old and tired.
Republicans have the power. Confirm your guy, pay the consequences. If the dems played it right, dems will have congress. If dems played it wrong, they will not gain the congress.
We'll know in a month.
"When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Graham is killing it today.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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By the way, the best part about the ABA calling for an investigation is that Graham and Kavanaugh mentioned several times yesterday how the ABA is fully behind Kavanaugh and he's the gold standard, etc. And then 12 hours later "uhh... we actually think an FBI investigation is appropriate."Originally posted by jdshock View Post
I also thought it was incredibly surprising that Dershowitz came out and said the FBI should do an investigation. One of the minority of legal scholars who seem to think the special counsel investigation is unconstitutional, and he thinks this is an appropriate use of the FBI's power.Comment
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Lindsey Graham's statement yesterday had me ready to run through a brick wall for him. That's all."In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards DemingComment
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The fact is that an FBI investigation could exonerate BK and recommend prosecuting Ford for perjury and still not a single Dem would vote for confirming him."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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As a strange thing, the betting markets on PredictIt have started moving back toward thinking Kavanaugh won't get confirmed. It'd gotten down to about a 10% chance this morning that he wouldn't get confirmed and now it's all the way back up to 40%.Comment
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Kavanaugh is in trouble. Coons and Flake have been meeting behind closed doors.Comment
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Flake asking for an FBI investigation.Comment
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Recommended to the floor. I have a feeling Democrats and Flake's request to delay for an investigation will be ignored by McConnell.Comment
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Can the FBI investigate anything in a week?"When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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