2024 - Severe Storms (T-Storms and Blizzards)

[WstateU]

Damn!

[Kung Wu]

Yikes.

[SB Shock]

Saturday has been upgraded to Moderate risk (due to Tornado risk

Day 2.jpg

[SB Shock]

I am still somewhat surprised by the upgrade to Moderate risk. There are still a lot of uncertainties with this system. For example, the front that came through last night wiped all the moisture out (it went from 72 dewpoint to 49). It is hard to see how the deep moisture can return that quickly.

[ShockerFever]

Moisture return and depth is questionable but it’s late May now. It didn’t get shunted too far south and it doesn’t take too much wind to bring it back quick.

The cap and slightly slower timing of the upper level jet coming into the area is more of a concern. Looks like it could be a later evening show, which I guess means it could be more dangerous.

[SB Shock]

Moisture return and depth is questionable but it’s late May now. It didn’t get shunted too far south and it doesn’t take too much wind to bring it back quick.

The cap and slightly slower timing of the upper level jet coming into the area is more of a concern. Looks like it could be a later evening show, which I guess means it could be more dangerous.

It looks like the parameters yelling "high end" are all backing off. I am going to stay up just to see what they do with the 0600 update.

[ShockerFever]

It looks like the parameters yelling "high end" are all backing off. I am going to stay up just to see what they do with the 0600 update.

Do you trust the CAMs? Have you seen the latest HRRR? It's screaming tornado outbreak, mainly after 7pm for us.

They're keeping with moderate and still using strong wording for "strong to violent" tornadoes. Moisture return is still going to be coming in "just in time" as you said. SPC was close to going high risk again but is questioning early afternoon activity in Texas, almost similarly to May 6th. Once they go in on a threat level, they rarely drop it back, even if it looks like it's not gonna come to fruition. Probably smart not to go high risk in this update to save face.

[SB Shock]

Do you trust the CAMs? Have you seen the latest HRRR? It's screaming tornado outbreak, mainly after 7pm for us.

This morning, it was a screaming outbreak. The projected soundings were PDS Tornado for Wichita. The last HRRR run I looked at didn't look that good (even though the SPC says otherwise). Maybe the feed I'm looking at is not getting updated properly.

They're keeping with moderate and still using strong wording for "strong to violent" tornadoes. Moisture return is still going to be coming in "just in time" as you said. SPC was close to going high risk again but is questioning early afternoon activity in Texas, almost similarly to May 6th. Once they go in on a threat level, they rarely drop it back, even if it looks like it's not gonna come to fruition. Probably smart not to go high risk in this update to save face.

I know everything they are saying is "high risk," but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty relative to their language.


It looks like they punted until tomorrow morning, which is probably smart. Maybe then there will be some clarity.

Much uncertainty plagues this outlook cycle, with the level
4-Moderate risk left as-is. This evening's guidance has trended
slower and more confined with the boundary-layer moisture return,
with most CAMs also suggesting earlier afternoon initiation
occurring along the periphery of the richer moisture in west TX.
Level 5-High risk potential remains evident with the 00Z HRRR
indicating a possible tornado outbreak scenario with long-lived
strong to violent tornadoes.

[SB Shock]

Overall, my feeling is that not everybody is going to get a storm or rain tonight, but keep in mind if a storm is heading your way, there will be a risk of large hail and a possible tornado. Or if you follow Reed Timmer on youtube, and he is in your area - watch out.

Here is the SPC guidance.

The SPC not going to back off, they stay with the large, moderate risk through Kansas, even though the text says

The tornado threat generally should increase
with time from midafternoon into early evening before peaking,
especially from about southern KS southward.

Day1a.jpg

NADOCAST, which usually has higher forecasted % than the SPC has only a slight risk of tornadoes.

Nado1.jpg

[RoyalShock]

Latest from NadoCast . . .

[SubGod22]

Butler County was saying this morning that the worst of it is projected south of 400 into central Oklahoma, but that we could still see some strong storms.

[pinstripers]

don't make me say it

[SB Shock]

Butler County was saying this morning that the worst of it is projected south of 400 into central Oklahoma, but that we could still see some strong storms.

Here is the Helicity Swaths from the HRRR. It keeps showing the greatest path to be between the KS/OK border to Highway 54. Model has been consitent with some variation for the last 6 runs.

HRRR 1800.jpg

[SB Shock]

PDS Tornado Watch is about to be issued.

MD.jpg

[SB Shock]

PDS Tornado Watch out till 11pm, Covering all of South Central Kansas.

PDS Tornado Watch.jpg