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Sever Weather Potential - Sat (4/14) - HIGH RISK

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  • #46
    Some chuckleheads actually thought they were going to play and went to the stupid game. Unbelievable.

    There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Downtown Shocker Brown View Post
      My buddy is streaming live at ictchaser.com.

      He is near Pratt, working towards the recently Tornado warned storm in Clark County.
      thanks for the link.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by MoValley John View Post
        Some chuckleheads actually thought they were going to play and went to the stupid game. Unbelievable.

        http://m.omaha.com/om/db_90923/conte...tguid=ohClyvvc
        weather channel had a live report at the stadium showing pepole leaving.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Downtown Shocker Brown View Post
          My buddy is streaming live at ictchaser.com.

          He is near Pratt, working towards the recently Tornado warned storm in Clark County.
          You should be able to pick up him and all the other storm chasers here.

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          • #50
            The new SPC moves the 45% area into Kansas only:

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            • #51
              Wichita now included in the 45% hatched.

              Nebraska is going to bust.
              The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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              • #52

                VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK STRATUS RELATED TO THE ADVECTION OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN TX INTO CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. A SPECIAL 17Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER NEAR 650 MB...WITH RELATIVELY COOL...BUT MOIST...PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM.
                Here is the sounding - you can see the warm layer that is capping things right now.
                Capture.jpg



                MEANWHILE...LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE ADVANCED THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 C TO THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO INCREASE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE SETUP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE FROM NW OK ACROSS NRN OK INTO CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WITH ONGOING CELLS OVER CNTRL KS...THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN TORNADOGENESIS AS SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THEM LATER. SOME OF THE CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK INCLUDE ENID...PRATT...GREAT BEND...SALINA...HUTCHINSON...WICHITA.

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                • #53
                  From the Wichita

                  12 UTC AND LATER RUC MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...BEST INSTABILITY/WEAKEST CAP IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KS WITH CAP HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST KS. GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS SO FAR...MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN VISIBILITY SATELLITE SOUTH/WEST OF ICT. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...CLEARLY ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/ SEVERE STORMS.

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                  • #54
                    Low Level Lapse Rates are horrible across SC KS.
                    The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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                    • #55
                      LCL's are also somewhat high.
                      The mountains are calling, and I must go.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        It looks like most of the threat here is gone. There is a nice thunderstorm moving through my area right now, but for the most part, any concerns regarding a huge tornado have dissipated. I love thunderstorms, just not a big fan of some rogue, F-5 tornado ripping through my house. I would miss my tools, commercial lawnmower and bigass snowblower too much. Plus, if my 2003 Suburban ended up in the neighbors dining room, it would probably get them pissed off at me.

                        On a much happier note, thunderstorms get my wife a little hot in the bother, so I'm scoring tonight!!!!
                        There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by MoValley John View Post

                          On a much happier note, thunderstorms get my wife a little hot in the bother, so I'm scoring tonight!!!!
                          It is not even scary here, so nobody will be scoring in ICT tonight....:heart-borken:

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by MoValley John View Post
                            It looks like most of the threat here is gone. There is a nice thunderstorm moving through my area right now, but for the most part, any concerns regarding a huge tornado have dissipated. I love thunderstorms, just not a big fan of some rogue, F-5 tornado ripping through my house. I would miss my tools, commercial lawnmower and bigass snowblower too much. Plus, if my 2003 Suburban ended up in the neighbors dining room, it would probably get them pissed off at me.

                            On a much happier note, thunderstorms get my wife a little hot in the bother, so I'm scoring tonight!!!!
                            ...and you would miss your computer and your online fights with Wu De Noord or whatever his name is.

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                            • #59
                              Wichita now under Tornado Watch till 2am. Not a PDS tornado watch, just a normal one. Correction - it is a PDS tornado watch.

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                              • #60
                                Wichita finally included into a PDS Tornado Watch. Probabilities lower than the earlier one though.
                                The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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