Sever Weather Potential - Sat (4/14) - HIGH RISK

[BenWSU]

The weather service wording on the newest updates makes you believe Nebraska will get most of the tornadoes

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Looks to me like Neb will get the brunt of the storms, but it is that storm off by itself with nothing to block its energy pull that scares me. That storm it seems will likely happen between Pratt and Hays.

[SB Shock]

Looks to me like Neb will get the brunt of the storms, but it is that storm off by itself with nothing to block its energy pull that scares me. That storm it seems will likely happen between Pratt and Hays.

That is what I was seeing in the models yesterday (I have not looked yet today).

It seems to me that SC Kansas and NC OK are really moderate risk based on their wording. It is a moderate risk by Hail and slightly High due Tornado.

But by them pulling out the high risk so early yesterday they got people attention, and they can't really pull back the high risk without a lot of embarrassment. So they are keeping it, but trying to tone down it down with their wording so when their high risk doesn't pan out they can say - that was our concern all along.

KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TEXAS... BARRING COMPLICATIONS FROM RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PROBABLY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SPARSE...PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND SURGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONCE THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

You shouldn't use "Probably" and "however" when talking about your high risk area. IMO, you save your high risk days for when you are positive that something big is going to happen. As the "probably" and "however" and "if's" clear themselves up you can move to high risk at later periods if it warrants.

[SB Shock]

Looking at the latest models

HRW: Initiation at around 7pm near Pratt/Great Bend with discrete cells, racing into N. Ks/Nebraska. Squal line starts developing at Wichita about 3am Sunday morning. Wrap around moisture on Sunday. The HRW did seem to have a good handle on this morning convection in eastern ks and OK.

NAM4: Shows mainly warm front action starting around 2pm along emporia, manhattan and concordia and then exploding in Nebraska and Iowa in the next hour or two. Discrete storms first east of wichita 9pm. Squall line forms along Topeka/Wichita line down to Texas about 1am and moves east. NAM4 did not seem to have a very good handle on this morning convection.

RAP: shows mainly instability around warm front moving north through the day. It only goes to 05z (12am central) but keeps the all the energy out west. Highest potential energy (CAPE) is in N. Kansas near hays-Norton into Nebraska with no convection breaking out in kansas during this time period.

GFS: Has no reflectivity component. At 7pm to 1am the highest cape in the wichita area coincides with high value of Effective Storm Relative Helicity (ESRH). After that period the ESRH is moves east into Eastern Kansas and Mizzou. Main upper energy is still out to the west in Colorado and NW Kansas into Nebraska.

NAM12: Shows the dryline trying to move east through wichita around 7pm. Upper air support is in extreme western kansas/nebrska. Has some initiation along the Wichita - Emporia line 1am then becoming a squal line. It did show some precip near joplin matching this morning radar picture.

Overall, again my take (and my only qualification is I stayed at a holiday inn express so take it all with grain of salt) is the main uppper level support timing is off to support a huge outbreak. There is enough potential energy and instability, that if the dry line storms can get going without the upper level support they themselves will be big storms.

Nebraska seems to be more under the gun because it really gets two shots of energy, warm front action, triple-point and closer to the upper level support. So they could see multiple shots today.

[Kung Wu]

Flying in from Atlanta .. Landing around 11:30am ... Checking Shockernet for my weather updates. You guys rock!

[SB Shock]

The 8am SPC brief is out. Not much change excpect they have actually increased the high risk coverage.


OVERALL, Tornado and Hail Oulooks

Capture.JPGCapture1.JPGCapture2.JPG

[SB Shock]

First Tornado Watch may be issued early for western Kansas

[wsushox1]

It's Forecaster vs the Models today. Models don't want to break out widespread precipitation but with the NAM 00 showing NO CINH and extreme forcing for ascent I don't see how supercells do not break out along the dryline tonight.

[wsushox1]

OKC WRF Sounding for tonight.

https://twitter.com/#!/alastormspotter/status/191174561956503552/photo/1/large

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Forcasters should win. Might break out earlier out west than people expect.

Sounds like the whole world is diverging into Wichita to see where to head. That sucks. Was hoping more would head to NE and leave the supercell chasing to the more experienced chasers. It will be dangerous due to weather, and due to all the idiots and Jonas Millers out there.

I just hope everyone stays safe, and as was said earlier, that a big nice beautiful supercell forms and spends an hour on the ground over open fields.

[wsushox1]

Forcasters should win. Might break out earlier out west than people expect.

Agreed. Crazy to see a SPC meso for a tornado watch - that should have high probabilities, miles west of the 10% general thunderstorm line!!

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

I don't think their probability anticipated the dry line moving as far back west as it did. Could open things up earlier and suck the energy out of the system, make it less focused decreasing the intensity of the storms, or fuddle most of the storms all together.

Going to be one of those days the information the true research chasers get that will help forcasting on these types of days.

[wsushox1]

Off Topic - I just enrolled at KU with the Major of Atmospheric Sciences. Hopefully one day I can do this for a living.

Going to be taking a lot of screen shots today. For future research, reference.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

KU? Really? KU? REALLY?

[wsushox1]

KU? Really? KU? REALLY?

Not sure what else you would like me to do. Wichita State does not offer the program. Out of State tuition is too expensive. I'm not about to change my passion just so I can go to a different school.

I've spent countless hours, late nights, and early mornings learning about the weather, talking to experience storm chasers/forecasters. It's what I'm going to do.