Sever Weather Potential - Sat (4/14) - HIGH RISK

[SB Shock]

Saturday is now a HIGH RISK day. From the SPC

A HIGH RISK WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

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[SB Shock]

The severe weather probabilities for this day are maxed out from the SPC probability tables.

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[SB Shock]

From the 326am Update by NWS

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST COULD SEE A TORNADO OUTBREAK SAT EVENING. A LARGE CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET SAT EVENING...AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND CIN VALUES REMAIN LOW WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR A LONG TRACK TORNADO CONTINUING LONG AFTER DARK. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TORNADOES AFTER DARK SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF LIFE. SPC COORDINATED WITH THE LOCAL OFFICES AND THEY HAVE GONE WITH A RARE DAY2 HIGH RISK ACROSS THE AREA.

NWS will be doing updates later this morning.

[wsushox1]

A good decision, I think to pull the high risk. The night time tornado potential is very high.

[SB Shock]

This is only the 2nd time the SPC has issues a Day 2 High Risk - First time was April 6, 2006 (for April 7, 2006) by the same forecaster.

That day verified with 91 tornado reports, 215 wind reports and 565 hail reports.

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[wsushox1]

The next Day 2 update comes out in fifteen minutes. Would expect an northern expansion of the high risk area, while the areas currently delineated as HIGH should be maintained.

[SB Shock]

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This afternoon outlook, with the plot of SIG TOR Parameter = 5.

Does anybody see any trends that make you think this is going to shift to the east? That what it seems to me.

[rrshock]

Where did you guys learn all of this?

[SB Shock]

Where did you guys learn all of this?

just self taught. Attend storm spotting classes. There are plenty of websites and formal training classes

With the internet now you can:

1. Review storm spotting classes online
2. Look at websites that have a plethora of training and information
3. NWS has Radar simulator and training scenarios - you can see how you would do in real life
4. Free Radar, free models, free satellite
5.

You can see how and why the NWS and local TV forecasters are forecasting. In some can out forecast at least the local TV forecasters.

[ShockerFever]

Latest NAM actually breaking out more precip along the dryline tomorrow. That seemed to be the one thing missing with the models lately, was the lack of thunderstorm coverage. Looks like that now may be changing.

And actually SB, I've been noticing a slight shift to the west with some model placements of the dryline during initiation.

[SB Shock]

I wouldn't be surprised if the high risk is down graded or shifted significantly. All the ingredients are there, but the timing doesn't seem right looking at the models.

[SB Shock]

Latest NAM actually breaking out more precip along the dryline tomorrow. That seemed to be the one thing missing with the models lately, was the lack of thunderstorm coverage. Looks like that now may be changing.

And actually SB, I've been noticing a slight shift to the west with some model placements of the dryline during initiation.

Yeah, I would agree. From what I have seen is the upper level energy is going to be more west and SC Kansas would not see much until very late in the night when the front blows through and setups a squal line.

About 9 pm discrete storms break out in Western KS and move quickly into Nebraska

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Then a line of storms start firing along the turnpike corridor at around 3-4am in the morning.

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[wsushox1]

Agreed, was odd with no CINH, Extreme Forcing perpendicular to the dryline, Moderate to high instability, why the NAM was not breaking out precipitation. It finally has.

[wsushox1]

Oh and Boundaries - will be interesting to see what roles they play tomorrow.

[wsushox1]

New Day 1. Highest Tornado Probabilities in Nebraska along the Lifting Warm Front. Low Level shear will be quite good there as winds are backing alot more there.



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