Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[ShockingButTrue]

What the hell are you talking about? Do you understand how logarithms work? The worldwide infected went up 10K and another 500 died since my post this morning. 500 more infected in the US in the last 12 hours. That’s 100 more than in the previous 24 and 200 more than the day before that, and 400 more than the day before that. Surely you recognize that tomorrow will be near 3000 in the US and 4000 by Monday?

500K worldwide by mid-April at the latest. This will be a 3 month period vs the year long H1N1 you referenced.

Now could you please post the projected statistical trend (from the extant 2 months) from ground zero? That would be China. Up or down? That'd be a fair template for us all to observe, wouldn't you agree?

Thank you.

[SB Shock]

Picture1.png

Here is the U.S. trendline, R^2 for exponential curve fit is 0.9979. If this trend continues:

10,000 - 7 days
100,000 - 14 days
1,000,000 - 21 days
10,000,000 - 28 days

Of course with the measures being taken right now should start reducing the possible exposures during a day and the Exponential Curve should become a Logistic Curve (meaning it will have a point and start looking like an "S" curve.

If you want to understand the math behind the exponential growth and how they are actually wanting to mitigate the growth here is youtube explanation,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

[ShockingButTrue]

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Picture1.png

Here is the U.S. trendline, R^2 for exponential curve fit is 0.9979. If this trend continues:

10,000 - 7 days
100,000 - 14 days
1,000,000 - 21 days
10,000,000 - 28 days

Of course with the measures being taken right now should start reducing the possible exposures during a day and the Exponential Curve should become a Logistic Curve (meaning it will have a point and start looking like an "S" curve.

If you want to understand the math behind the exponential growth and how they are actually wanting to mitigate the growth here is youtube explanation,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

For what reason is the US's trendline so much higher than Ground Zero? You didn't reference China's. That would be a relevant statistic. No?

From 1/22/20 to 3/13/20 there have been 80,824 cases in China, 80% of which are mild (Chinese Journal of Epidemiology/CJE, est. 1956). That's 50 days. Something ain't adding up BS Shock, when one takes into account the exponential factor.

Sounds like a lot of -ahem- disinformation is afoot. China rattled the markets, eh?

[wufan]

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For what reason is the US's trendline so much higher than Ground Zero? You didn't reference China's. That would be a relevant statistic. No?

From 1/22/20 to 3/13/20 there have been 80,824 cases in China, 80% of which are mild (Chinese Journal of Epidemiology/CJE, est. 1956). That's 50 days. Something ain't adding up BS Shock, when one takes into account the exponential factor.

Sounds like a lot of -ahem- disinformation is afoot. China rattled the markets, eh?

Why is the US trend line higher? Because we don’t lock people in their houses if they live near ground zero. China did. China is relevant up to the point that they took draconian measures, if you actually trust Chinese statistics. If you do trust Chinese stats, they went from 500 cases Jan 22 to 50000 cases Feb 12. That’s a 2 log increase over 3 weeks.

What’s not adding up? No preventative measures means that there is exponential growth until you hit a population saturation limit. We are currently in the exponential growth phase as there is a lot of populous to infect and no preventative measures have had the opportunity to take effect. The hope is that the preventative measures will slow the growth.

This ain’t rocket science and it ain’t fake news. It’s math. There is a risk and taking preventative measures lessens the risk. You might feel that the measures being taken are more than what’s warranted for the risk, but the math is real.

[SB Shock]

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For what reason is the US's trendline so much higher than Ground Zero? You didn't reference China's. That would be a relevant statistic. No?

Our growth is actually less than China was at an equivalent time. China got its inflection point from the Chinese government shuttering its economy and locking down cities and stopped all movements in the country.

Picture2.png

Something ain't adding up BS Shock, when one takes into account the exponential factor.

The data is the data. That why I don't listen to chatter heads and conspiracy idiots like evidently you do. I look at the raw data and trends for the truth (and who are misleading).

[Shockm]

Talk about draconian measures, anyone who viewed the news during the time of the height of the epidemic in China witnessed vans going around, and forcing numerous people onto them (i didn't see any who wanted to go) . I presume they were taking them to hospitals, but it was difficult watching people who were forced to do something against their will.

[wufan]

Talk about draconian measures, anyone who viewed the news during the time of the height of the epidemic in China witnessed vans going around, and forcing numerous people onto them (i didn't see any who wanted to go) . I presume they were taking them to hospitals, but it was difficult watching people who were forced to do something against their will.

They rounded up anyone that had contact and isolated them together in gymnasiums for weeks. Others were locked in their house from the outside.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

This ain’t rocket science and it ain’t fake news. It’s math. There is a risk and taking preventative measures lessens the risk. You might feel that the measures being taken are more than what’s warranted for the risk, but the math is real.

The only problem I have with the math is that the total number of USA infections is much higher than what is reported due to our limited ability for testing at this point. So more than likely that 2% death rate you are citing is overstated. I wouldn't be surprised if in reality it is closer to the numbers coming out of South Korea.

[wufan]

The only problem I have with the math is that the total number of USA infections is much higher than what is reported due to our limited ability for testing at this point. So more than likely that 2% death rate you are citing is overstated. I wouldn't be surprised if in reality it is closer to the numbers coming out of South Korea.

I didn’t state anything about mortality rate in that post, but I have cited sources in the past. You are correct that the total infected is probably much higher than the total confirmed. The same is true for flu. So what. You compare them like for like. If you want to look at the best case scenario; Germany, it’s 0.3%, three times worse than the flu. Your South Korea, is 1%. Ten times as bad as the flu. In the US it’s 2%. Worldwide, it’s 3.5%. Italy is 8%.

In summary, it’s between three and 80 times more fatal than the flu. My post that you quoted holds true. You may feel that the measures being taken are two strong, but there is a real risk and the measures being taken reduce that risk whatever they may be.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

I didn’t state anything about mortality rate in that post, but I have cited sources in the past. You are correct that the total infected is probably much higher than the total confirmed. The same is true for flu. So what. You compare them like for like. If you want to look at the best case scenario; Germany, it’s 0.3%, three times worse than the flu. Your South Korea, is 1%. Ten times as bad as the flu. In the US it’s 2%. Worldwide, it’s 3.5%. Italy is 8%.

In summary, it’s between three and 80 times more fatal than the flu. My post that you quoted holds true. You may feel that the measures being taken are two strong, but there is a real risk and the measures being taken reduce that risk whatever they may be.

Please reread my posts. I have never said anything about measures being too strong. I feel that is completely irresponsible for you to imply that. I only stated that the death rate is being overstated. That is all.

[wufan]

Please reread my posts. I have never said anything about measures being too strong. I feel that is completely irresponsible for you to imply that. I only stated that the death rate is being overstated. That is all.

But I didn’t say anything about mortality rate. Is that irresponsible for you to have an issue with my post about responsive measures to infection rate?

[1979Shocker]

He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

Maybe he should just give them away instead of gouging people to make a profit.

[1979Shocker]

[WstateU]

He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

Maybe he should just give them away instead of gouging people to make a profit.

SMH...

[wufan]

Surely you recognize that tomorrow will be near 3000 in the US and 4000 by Monday?

500K worldwide by mid-April at the latest.

Well, we are near 3000 cases today with 2943. On pace for 4000 by Monday night.