Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[RoyalShock]

A Bunch of people are currently quarantined in Omaha. Several are now in the biocontainment unit at Nebraska Medicine. This means overtime and big paychecks for my wife.

Are those the US citizens taken from the cruise ship docked in Japan?

[MoValley John]

Are those the US citizens taken from the cruise ship docked in Japan?

Yes. Most of them are being held at the national quarantine center, one had been moved to biocontainment. There are more, not sure where in China they originated from, being quarantined
West of Omaha in Ashland.

[RoyalShock]

Yes. Most of them are being held at the national quarantine center, one had been moved to biocontainment. There are more, not sure where in China they originated from, being quarantined
West of Omaha in Ashland.

14 total, according to the John's Hopkins tracker.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[MoValley John]

https://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/the-americans-quarantined-at-camp-ashland-prepare-to-return-home/article_e502f9d9-005c-5da9-b3bb-2288fd61e3da.html

[1979Shocker]

Coronavirus-infected Americans flown home against CDC’s advice

[SB Shock]

Iran is reporting officially 28 cases with being 6 deaths. The mortality rate is running around 2-3%, which means there really is at least 200-300 cases. Iran's place of origin seems to have been the city of QOM. But those who were on pilgrimages to QOM are now returning to their countries and exporting the virus.

[Shocker1976]

Due to the unreliability of the data provided IMO the mortality rate is unknown; using such an unknown to extrapolate is nonproductive.

Incidence to Prevalence

The relationship between incidence and prevalence depends greatly on the natural history of the disease state being reported. In the case of an influenza epidemic, the incidence may be high but not contribute to much growth of prevalence because of the high, spontaneous rate of disease resolution. In the case of a disease that has a low (or zero) cure rate, but where maintenance treatment permits sustained survival, then incidence contributes to continuous growth of prevalence. In such cases, the limitation on prevalence growth is the mortality which occurs in the population. Obviously, prevalence will continue to grow until mortality equals or exceeds the incidence rate.

https://www.advancedrenaleducation.com/content/incidence-and-prevalence

[wufan]

The mortality rate is certainly subject to scrutiny, but there is still a value add. It’s 20-40 times more deadly than the flu based on known cases. At some point we might find that the cases were vastly under reported, but as the CDC makes decisions, that’s the best info we have.

[Shocker1976]

The mortality rate is certainly subject to scrutiny, but there is still a value add. It’s 20-40 times more deadly than the flu based on known cases. At some point we might find that the cases were vastly under reported, but as the CDC makes decisions, that’s the best info we have.

To estimate the case fatality rate (CFR) by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases is tempting; however, the result cannot represent the true CFR and may well be off by orders of magnitude due to the lack of sufficient reliable data at present. This is why reported CFRs range from 2% to greater than 10%

[wufan]

To estimate the case fatality rate (CFR) by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases is tempting; however, the result cannot represent the true CFR and may well be off by orders of magnitude due to the lack of sufficient reliable data at present. This is why reported CFRs range from 2% to greater than 10%

Yup...best info available.

[SB Shock]

To estimate the case fatality rate (CFR) by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases is tempting; however, the result cannot represent the true CFR and may well be off by orders of magnitude due to the lack of sufficient reliable data at present. This is why reported CFRs range from 2% to greater than 10%

That is why they have been watching Japan/SK where they expect to get hopefully more accurate numbers.

[MoValley John]

NM.

[Kung Wu]

I merged the two coronavirus threads.

[pogo]

Why would anyone doubt the data coming out of an oppressive communist government like Communist China. The central government has always been forthcoming with news and information about everything within their borders. And why do people refer to Communist China as China. The real China is on the island of Taiwan. I trained with a couple of ROC Marines and they were hard corps.

[ShockerDropOut]

Looks like containment has been lost. Significant cases (and deaths) are being reported in Italy, South Korea, and Iran with no patient zero being able to be identified. At least 6 deaths in Iran have been reported today.

John Hopkins has a dashboard that is tracking the outbreak. Focus on the reports outside of China (because China is not likely being honest in their reporting).

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

I like this map in general, but am a little skeptical. It is showing 36 cases in a rural area of Montgomery county. Is there and containment facility in SE Kansas?