Severe Weather - May

[wsushox1]

We're gonna start hearing ALOT about tomorrow very soon on news outlets.....

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX TO SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY TO SRN NY...

...TORNADIC OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...

A CLASSIC PLAINS TORNADIC OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF A VERY STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS SRN
CA...INTO THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
BY PEAK HEATING. A VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS AS 30-60M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS EDGE EWD. ADDITIONALLY...H5
SPEED MAX APPROACHING 80-90KT...AS NOTED IN THE GFS...WILL RACE TO A
POSITION OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 25/00Z WHICH WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER
REGION...NWD INTO KS AND EVEN SRN NEB. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TIME FAVORABLY FOR RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS ATMOSPHERIC
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.

EARLY IN THE MORNING A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING
WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM KS EWD INTO MO AND
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS REGION OF ASCENT AND STORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY FORCE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO NRN AR...NWWD INTO SRN
KS. HOWEVER...A NWD RETREAT IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN KS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS
REASON IT APPEARS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM NRN
TX INTO SRN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 5000 J/KG WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT CLASSIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS KS/OK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60KT. BY MID AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE NOTED
ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE FORCING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
90S...EFFECTIVELY REMOVING INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP MUCH QUICKER WITHIN THE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SFC LOW WITHIN STRONGEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

WHILE DRYLINE SUPERCELLS LIFE CYCLE WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN
21Z-04Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS KS/NEB INTO MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...TN/OH VALLEY TO SRN NY...

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WITH AN 18Z POSITION FROM CNTRL OH...SWD INTO ERN TN. THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...SHOULD INDUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE VAST MAJORITY OF
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE BUT CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2011

[ShockerFever]

Classic setup appears to be coming together..

Extreme instability combined with a dynamic shortwave right at peak heating..

This will definitely need to be monitored closely.

[wsushox1]

I'm somewhat shocked at the little attention the local media has given this, I believe at 6 o'clock Merril showed the outlook but just said a "chance for severe".

This has the potential to be an abnormally severe day tomorrow, though there are still some uncertainties I believe that people need to know to take things with extreme caution here tomorrow.
I think that, though rather unfortunately, because of the situation in Joplin that people will take things more seriously at least for a little while, but am concerned that Kansans might become complacent.

Someone mentioned somewhere that people in Joplin continued to practice golf on the driving range even after the tornado sirens went off.

[wsushox1]

Talked to a pro met that said that this could make 5/10/10 (last years outbreak) look like a cake walk.

However I'm not quite sold on that yet, tomorrow will have much higher instability but shear doesn't look to be as "insane and off the charts" as ICT NWS put it last year.

[SB Shock]

Talked to a pro met that said that this could make 5/10/10 (last years outbreak) look like a cake walk.

However I'm not quite sold on that yet, tomorrow will have much higher instability but shear doesn't look to be as "insane and off the charts" as ICT NWS put it last year.

I'm not sold either. It doesn't seem synched just right. I don't think they are going to have a real good handle until tomorrow.

[wsushox1]

Talked to a pro met that said that this could make 5/10/10 (last years outbreak) look like a cake walk.

However I'm not quite sold on that yet, tomorrow will have much higher instability but shear doesn't look to be as "insane and off the charts" as ICT NWS put it last year.

I'm not sold either. It doesn't seem synched just right. I don't think they are going to have a real good handle until tomorrow.

As often is the problem with closed lows the winds will start to try to wrap around the low making for unfavorable shear vectors for tornadoes.....will have to watch this tomorrow.

[wsushox1]

It was inevitable



Does include Wichita, El Dorado, OKC, Tulsa, Enid.

[SubGod22]

Reed was calling for a possible "historic outbreak" for Central OK to Central KS today. I know I'll be keeping a close eye on the weather today.

[SB Shock]

Gravity Wave in the visible Satelite moving west to east across Kansas?

[wsushox1]

Yes, appears so. An OFB like taht can make it extremely obvious where storms will form and eliminate an entire risk area too.

[NCAABound]

I'm somewhat shocked at the little attention the local media has given this, I believe at 6 o'clock Merril showed the outlook but just said a "chance for severe".

This has the potential to be an abnormally severe day tomorrow, though there are still some uncertainties I believe that people need to know to take things with extreme caution here tomorrow.
I think that, though rather unfortunately, because of the situation in Joplin that people will take things more seriously at least for a little while, but am concerned that Kansans might become complacent.

Someone mentioned somewhere that people in Joplin continued to practice golf on the driving range even after the tornado sirens went off.

My guess is they are downplaying it publicly because we had a few events this year that turned out to be nothing. So they are probably taking a little bit more muted approach to this one. They don't want the Dave Freeman scare factor.

[SubGod22]

For those like me who don't understand everything (sadly) and how it goes down or sets up or whatever, there's a piece on weather.com that kind of explains todays setup and how it all works. I'm guessing it's a decent dummy's guide to severe weather anyway. Classic Plains Tornado Outbreak Ingredients

[wsushox1]

nm

[Kung Wu]

For those like me who don't understand everything (sadly) and how it goes down or sets up or whatever, there's a piece on weather.com that kind of explains todays setup and how it all works. I'm guessing it's a decent dummy's guide to severe weather anyway. Classic Plains Tornado Outbreak Ingredients

Nice link! Thanks for sharing.

[wsushox1]

SPC comes out with 45% tornado Probabilities for OK and extreme Southern KS, which is only the 3rd time ever.