Severe Weather - May

[ShockerFever]

Watching weather channel coverage of tornado that just leveled Joplin Missouri. Cant tell if it messed up part of town or all of it.

It looks like just part of the city was hit. That would be pretty devastating it it was the whole city. Joplin's population is around 250K-300K.

City itself is only 50,000. It's surrounding area totals around 150,000.

[1979Shocker]

Watching weather channel coverage of tornado that just leveled Joplin Missouri. Cant tell if it messed up part of town or all of it.

It looks like just part of the city was hit. That would be pretty devastating it it was the whole city. Joplin's population is around 250K-300K.

City itself is only 50,000. It's surrounding area totals around 150,000.

Okay, I didn't look that closely at this link and didn't see the 49,024.

http://www.joplinmo.org/

I only saw the daytime population of 270,000, whatever that means, and thought that was it.

[wsushox1]

From what I ahve been able to gather from emergency radio traffic and such there are 10-20 casualties with several priority 1 triage patients.

Hospital was hit with a fire going on there now. Apartment complex hit and several homes missing from their foundation.

Apparently 24 confirmed at the moment.

This hasn't been the anamolous month of may that April was, infact it would have to take several super outbreaks for us to even come close to the average tornadoes in May over the past 20 years.

Things could be ramping up though.

I can't remember this many metro areas getting hit in one year though......



Tower Cam view of the JOplin Tornado....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfE6wGceA_A&feature=player_embedded#at=45

[SB Shock]

I can't remember this many metro areas getting hit in one year though......

I would really attribute this due to the tornado season to this point being predominantly east of tornado alley in areas where there is denser populations than west texas, ok, and kansas.

I keep looking at the model for this week and I just don't see much interesting. It looks to either be south or south and east of the Wichita area.

[rZ]

My grandmother lives outside of Joplin, while talking with her, she said that the top 2 floors of the hospital are gone.

my mother just said that everything south of 20th street has been leveled.

[ShockerFever]

I keep looking at the model for this week and I just don't see much interesting. It looks to either be south or south and east of the Wichita area.

Which model are you looking at? I can see where you're coming from for tomorrow, as the tornado threat looks to be to the south and east of Wichita and most of Kansas. However, Tuesday, as it looks now, has a big bullseye over our area with a pretty impressive list of ingredients coming together. The cape for Tuesday is around 5,000 in some areas... extreme instability..

[BenWSU]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

We're in the 45% area while Joplin on Sunday was only in the 10% area

[SB Shock]

I keep looking at the model for this week and I just don't see much interesting. It looks to either be south or south and east of the Wichita area.

Which model are you looking at? I can see where you're coming from for tomorrow, as the tornado threat looks to be to the south and east of Wichita and most of Kansas. However, Tuesday, as it looks now, has a big bullseye over our area with a pretty impressive list of ingredients coming together. The cape for Tuesday is around 5,000 in some areas... extreme instability..

I am looking at GFS, NAM and HRW-NMM (in GREarth). It looks to me like Tuesday they will be saying "Along and East of the I-35 Corridor".

[SB Shock]

I keep looking at the model for this week and I just don't see much interesting. It looks to either be south or south and east of the Wichita area.

Which model are you looking at? I can see where you're coming from for tomorrow, as the tornado threat looks to be to the south and east of Wichita and most of Kansas. However, Tuesday, as it looks now, has a big bullseye over our area with a pretty impressive list of ingredients coming together. The cape for Tuesday is around 5,000 in some areas... extreme instability..

Looking at the latest model runs this morning I can see what your talking about.

Things look a little more dynamic than the runs I was looking at last night (everything has pulled back a little west). Attached is screenshots of CAPE and SRH.


GFS




NAM

[WuDrWu]

Prayers go out to all the people affected. Joplin is one hell of a mess and I suspect they are going to be digging up bodies for some time.

A reminder to us all that life can change in the blink of an eye.


May God bless them and ease their suffering.

[wsushox1]

CAPE and SRH will be rather high, so EHI numbers will be off the charts (i've seen some forecasted around 12-13).

Day 2 Moderate risk up, should be a high risk somewhere tomorrow in my opinion.

[SubGod22]

I've seen reports where about 30% of the city has been pretty much leveled. Last I heard, 89 confirmed fatalities with more expected. The hospital reported that they had less than 5 minutes warning and there were patients sucked out the windows. Street signs are pretty much gone with has made some of the searches difficult as they try to find places with reported needs. My girlfriend has family in the area and we were up most the night trying to get info. One works at one of the hospitals in Joplin but she wasn't sure which. I also have a cousin whose daughter was just outside South West City, MO and couldn't get a hold of her for hours. Thankfully she's ok.

[wsushox1]

Glad to hear your family is ok Sub!

[SB Shock]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

We're in the 45% area while Joplin on Sunday was only in the 10% area

Those probabilities they give are based on the number of events they expect to occur. Just because you might be outside the higher probabilities doesn't mean they will be potentially less severe.

[wsushox1]

And in the Day 2 outlook it is a combined Hail/wind/tor threat.