Severe Weather - May

[Kung Wu]

Regardless of the outcome, it was cool getting a glimpse of how you weather-nerds work.

I also appreciated the heads-up even if it didn't materialize.

[SB Shock]

I saw couple things that led to yesterday being pretty uneventfull

1. T-Storms blew up in S. OK and Texas and their cloud debris pushed up over KS and thus we didn't get the heating to create unstable environment and probably robbed kansas of some moisture.

2. The dry line push back the night before alot further west than was expected. It was projected to be between DDC and ICT, but ended up west of DDC. Therefore the dry line wasn't a player.

I remember one of my spotter classes they show a basketball player throwing a full court pass, at the same time there is a little kid running full speed along the sideline and he turns the corner and the pass hits him and knocks him down. If the kid slows down or the inbounder throws the pass a just half second sooner or later the pass never connects - their point that they were trying to get across is it is all about timing. Yesterday all the ingredients were potentially there but the timing wasn't and therefore it didn't come together.

I'm no weather expert and I don't geek weather, but let me see if I understand you correctly. Thunderstorms and severe weather outbreaks are much like a Randy Johnson fastball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwpRHrAh3pk

I think you nailed it.

[wsushox1]

Next system approaches on the 19th, it may slow down/speed up a day or so as we get closer.

VERY similar system to the one we just had, however as of now things are matching up a little better.

Either way, things are looking good for 1-2 inches of rain across the area.

[wsushox1]

Thursday and Friday this week.

Could be quite bumpy both days.

Again the problem will be the morning rain on thursday ruining the warm sector and how much of a recovery we can get after that.

Friday looks a bit better on that front, but the shear dynamics are weaker.

Any regional track participants like myself might have to be prepared to go another day.

[SB Shock]

It just seems getting quality moisture back here is going to be a struggle. It feels like we are more in late march early April not middle may.

[SB Shock]

SPC is now showing Thurs/Frid as possible days to watch. Here is their wording for Friday:

IF TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH IS OPTIMIZED WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE THEN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON TROUGH PROGRESSION

In other words, all the ingredients will be available, the only question is will the timing be right.

[DUShock]

SPC is now showing Thurs/Frid as possible days to watch. Here is their wording for Friday:

IF TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH IS OPTIMIZED WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE THEN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON TROUGH PROGRESSION

In other words, all the ingredients will be available, the only question is will the timing be right.

As with all things weather: opperative words include "if", "timing", and "may"...

I appreciate you sharing, growing up farming in Kansas I, like most of my farming cousins are amateur meteorologists.

[RoyalShock]

After last Wednesday I had to laugh at "minimal convective interference".

[1979Shocker]

Reed Timmer from Storm Chasers was on Jay Leno last night.

He mentioned that there will be a one-hour special Sunday at 9pm on the Discover Channel (channels 42 and 2042 on Cox) called Tornado Rampage 2011.

[SubGod22]

Reed Timmer from Storm Chasers was on Jay Leno last night.

He mentioned that there will be a one-hour special Sunday at 9pm on the Discover Channel (channels 42 and 2042 on Cox) called Tornado Rampage 2011.

He's also expecting to chase in KS on Thursday.

[NCAABound]

Reed Timmer from Storm Chasers was on Jay Leno last night.

He mentioned that there will be a one-hour special Sunday at 9pm on the Discover Channel (channels 42 and 2042 on Cox) called Tornado Rampage 2011.

He's also expecting to chase in KS on Thursday.

Yep, they should be arriving today and staying tonight in Wichita, then getting a better idea of when/where the storms will most likely hit.

[SubGod22]

Reed Timmer from Storm Chasers was on Jay Leno last night.

He mentioned that there will be a one-hour special Sunday at 9pm on the Discover Channel (channels 42 and 2042 on Cox) called Tornado Rampage 2011.

He's also expecting to chase in KS on Thursday.

Yep, they should be arriving today and staying tonight in Wichita, then getting a better idea of when/where the storms will most likely hit.

The D2, last I heard, was being equipped with the latest upgrades and equipment. I suppose they hope to arrive sometime tonight as it's a bit of a drive from Mississippi. Unless of course someone is bringing it to them.

[NCAABound]

Reed Timmer from Storm Chasers was on Jay Leno last night.

He mentioned that there will be a one-hour special Sunday at 9pm on the Discover Channel (channels 42 and 2042 on Cox) called Tornado Rampage 2011.

He's also expecting to chase in KS on Thursday.

Yep, they should be arriving today and staying tonight in Wichita, then getting a better idea of when/where the storms will most likely hit.

The D2, last I heard, was being equipped with the latest upgrades and equipment. I suppose they hope to arrive sometime tonight as it's a bit of a drive from Mississippi. Unless of course someone is bringing it to them.

I'm not sure what time today...I just know we're trying to get them to stay at our hotel.

[wsushox1]

haha well He might want to get into OK if at all possible.

Stratus are now becoming an issue because of how rapid the moisture is streaming into KS, on Thursday.



That Graph is a mid level Relative Humidity forecast for Thursday at 1 PM and where ever the 90-95% Humidity shading is Stratus are likely. There is a nice area of potential clearing in OK that might move northward into the KICT area by mid afternoon, but not sure we can warm up enough.

Anyways just a current thought at the moment, things will defnitely change.

[ShockerFever]

This is the year of nothing in Kansas. 8 tornadoes reported so far this year statewide? None in the month of May so far?

At this point, I just hope to see some moderate rain and maybe a clap of thunder. Severe weather just doesn't seem like it's in the cards much this year. Whatever ingredients that do come together a couple days out will quickly spin up something negative, like in this case, the thermodynamics look to be missing. What a shocker..