Severe Weather - May

[SB Shock]

Last night quote from Normal NWS office

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE TROUBLE. `NUFF SAID.

[wsushox1]

No one still really knows that is going to happen, in a detailed sense.

They know there will be severe weather tomorrow across the dryline but which part of the dryline will have the highest tornado threat, how long will convection last past 7pm, how early will crapvection start to fire tomorrow?

Things like that.

[NCAABound]

So was this a "fail" for the forecasters? SC Kansas didn't have anything close to severe, did we?

[SubGod22]

So was this a "fail" for the forecasters? SC Kansas didn't have anything close to severe, did we?

It's expected this evening from my understanding.

[SubGod22]

There are A LOT of chasers sitting in SW KS right now. Dodge City, Greensburg, Pratt and other towns in that area. Does what they expect to happen make it to Wichita is the question. But they seem to think something is in play. And based off of what I've seen, that's where the maps that have been posted here have indicated where the biggest threat would be.

[NCAABound]

So was this a "fail" for the forecasters? SC Kansas didn't have anything close to severe, did we?

It's expected this evening from my understanding.

Oh, ok. I though once this line moved past us right now, we'd be home free the rest of the night. But, after looking at the dew points, they drop off quickly west of Pratt. So there still might be something for us around Wichita.

[RoyalShock]

If the clouds don't burn off and allow for some surface heating, I don't think we're going to see much in the Wichita-Hutchinson area.

Visible satellite showing cloud cover south of Salina and east of Dodge City.

[wsushox1]

It was not a forecaster fail per se, it was a computer model fail.

The models looked strange the entire time leading up to this event, and no one was really sure why. I double checked Upper Air soundings towards how the models intialized and they certainly did not have "garbage in" but they definitely had "garbage out".

Around 11PM last night storms were firing along the Texas/NM border, this was not expected, it formed into a larger cluster of storms that burned away most of the entire warm sector before the best upper level shear arrived.


Total bust today for almost everybody, surprise day up in NE/IA.

One of the more decent Synoptic Pattern Busts of the past couple of years.

[NCAABound]

It was not a forecaster fail per se, it was a computer model fail.

The models looked strange the entire time leading up to this event, and no one was really sure why. I double checked Upper Air soundings towards how the models intialized and they certainly did not have "garbage in" but they definitely had "garbage out".

Around 11PM last night storms were firing along the Texas/NM border, this was not expected, it formed into a larger cluster of storms that burned away most of the entire warm sector before the best upper level shear arrived.


Total bust today for almost everybody, surprise day up in NE/IA.

One of the more decent Synoptic Pattern Busts of the past couple of years.

Well, in all due respect wsushox1, all forecasters just rely on models today. Not bashing them, just pointing out facts.

I could tell by late in the afternoon nothing was going to happen in the metro area. This was not a tornado/supercell outbreak like most thought.

[MoValley John]

We had a couple of nice thunderstorms here in Omaha. A good rain and lots of cool lightning. I love these type of storms, but you can keep your tornadoes, thank you. As far as Spring storms go, this is about the first one I remember this year. Like you guys, we are missing out on the fun stuff.

But just like in sports, the season is far from over and I hope for a huge comeback. Lets go supercells!

[ShockerFever]

We had a couple of nice thunderstorms here in Omaha. A good rain and lots of cool lightning. I love these type of storms, but you can keep your tornadoes, thank you. As far as Spring storms go, this is about the first one I remember this year. Like you guys, we are missing out on the fun stuff.

But just like in sports, the season is far from over and I hope for a huge comeback. Lets go supercells!

:clap: :clap: :clap: Let's get the chant going..

"Let's go supercells, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap!"


But in all seriousness, this severe weather season has sucked. Hell, this entire spring storm season has sucked. I've heard maybe a few claps of thunder the ENTIRE year. Pretty pathetic.

wsushox1 was right in his analysis though. The storms last night in Texas that nobody expected to form killed our chances today. Nobody's perfect in this weather game.

[wsushox1]

Well, in all due respect wsushox1, all forecasters just rely on models today. Not bashing them, just pointing out facts.

I could tell by late in the afternoon nothing was going to happen in the metro area. This was not a tornado/supercell outbreak like most thought.

The word outbreak was never used by any source I have seen.

Things look to be very inactive for the next week or so. 19-21 time frame or so looks to be the next best shot, though that is a long ways away and it could never happen.

[NCAABound]

Well, in all due respect wsushox1, all forecasters just rely on models today. Not bashing them, just pointing out facts.

I could tell by late in the afternoon nothing was going to happen in the metro area. This was not a tornado/supercell outbreak like most thought.

The word outbreak was never used by any source I have seen.

Things look to be very inactive for the next week or so. 19-21 time frame or so looks to be the next best shot, though that is a long ways away and it could never happen.

Sorry shox1 - I was just a little disappointed last night. I was hoping for a little action around these parts. We did get a pretty good rain down in Derby yesterday evening. Probably not enough to make a dent though.

[SB Shock]

I saw couple things that led to yesterday being pretty uneventfull

1. T-Storms blew up in S. OK and Texas and their cloud debris pushed up over KS and thus we didn't get the heating to create unstable environment and probably robbed kansas of some moisture.

2. The dry line push back the night before alot further west than was expected. It was projected to be between DDC and ICT, but ended up west of DDC. Therefore the dry line wasn't a player.

I remember one of my spotter classes they show a basketball player throwing a full court pass, at the same time there is a little kid running full speed along the sideline and he turns the corner and the pass hits him and knocks him down. If the kid slows down or the inbounder throws the pass a just half second sooner or later the pass never connects - their point that they were trying to get across is it is all about timing. Yesterday all the ingredients were potentially there but the timing wasn't and therefore it didn't come together.

[MoValley John]

I saw couple things that led to yesterday being pretty uneventfull

1. T-Storms blew up in S. OK and Texas and their cloud debris pushed up over KS and thus we didn't get the heating to create unstable environment and probably robbed kansas of some moisture.

2. The dry line push back the night before alot further west than was expected. It was projected to be between DDC and ICT, but ended up west of DDC. Therefore the dry line wasn't a player.

I remember one of my spotter classes they show a basketball player throwing a full court pass, at the same time there is a little kid running full speed along the sideline and he turns the corner and the pass hits him and knocks him down. If the kid slows down or the inbounder throws the pass a just half second sooner or later the pass never connects - their point that they were trying to get across is it is all about timing. Yesterday all the ingredients were potentially there but the timing wasn't and therefore it didn't come together.

I'm no weather expert and I don't geek weather, but let me see if I understand you correctly. Thunderstorms and severe weather outbreaks are much like a Randy Johnson fastball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwpRHrAh3pk