2009-10 Women's Basketball Prediction Contest

[SpanglerFan316]

Non-Conference:8-3
MVC:7-11
Overall:16-15 (no worse than 1-1 at MVC Tourney)
Average Road Margin: -7.5


This is my KcShox worst case scenario prediction.

I would like to take this time to publicly admit that KcShox is much smarter than I.....also that I have only rose (or yellow) tinted glasses and could not possibly give an accurate prediction of anything Shocker related.

I am awarded no points, and may God have mercy on my soul.


I will now revise my prediction to 4-7 and 2-16 with an average road margin of -24.5 (I do think there is a chance to improve).

Can I change my answer too? We beat CSU (76 - 69) last year and are supposed to be much better this year.

[1972Shocker]

Sorry guys. This is high-stakes prognostication. Bragging rights are at stake and you can't put a price on that. No mulligans!

[1972Shocker]

RealTimeRPI.com is projecting the Shockers record at 5-4 + 4-14 = 9-18.
They exclude our games against Non-D1 opponents (South Dakota and SIU-Edwardsville).

That below all of our predictions. They are projecting us to finish with an RPI of 300 (Ugh!).

They have us defeating UNI at home and then losing 12 straight in the Valley before a 3-game home winning streak against MSU, Evansille and SIU (by a total margin of 6 points) followed by 2 more road losses to finish the Valley at 4-14.

Before the CSU game I would have said we will easily beat that. Now I'm not so sure, but an RPI of 300 (out of 348) would be pretty embarrassing.

Here's hoping the Ladies have a steep (upwardly sloping) learning curve.

[flyingMoose]

RealTimeRPI.com
They have us defeating UNI at home

... by a score of 62-62, so I am not sure how to understand or how readily to believe some of their numbers. For example on our team page, we currently have an RPI rank of 97! But if you look at the upcoming match-up with Western Illinois, we appear to have a rank of 273. Quien sabe?

[1972Shocker]

RealTimeRPI.com
They have us defeating UNI at home

... by a score of 62-62, so I am not sure how to understand or how readily to believe some of their numbers. For example on our team page, we currently have an RPI rank of 97! But if you look at the upcoming match-up with Western Illinois, we appear to have a rank of 273. Quien sabe?

Not sure these numbers mean too much this early in the season. I didn't notice the UNI score. I guess they figure we've been so bad that if we can eke out a tie in regulation we get the win without having to go into OT.

:D

[1972Shocker]

'Moose, what I suspect really happened their is that their system is purely a quantitative number-crunching exercise. I'm thinking the actual numbers out of the model might have been Shocks - 62.4135786,
UNI - 62.2716357. They give the W to the Shocks but the screen shot only shows the rounded numbers. Who knows!

In any case, I will be disappointed if we do as poorly as they are currently projecting us.

[flyingMoose]

I'm thinking the actual numbers out of the model might have been Shocks - 62.4135786,
UNI - 62.2716357. They give the W to the Shocks but the screen shot only shows the rounded numbers. Who knows!

I assumed they had us winning in OT but did not have room to put it on the screen. :) Actually, I suspect you are exactly right.

In any case, I will be disappointed if we do as poorly as they are currently projecting us.

Although I did not enter the prediction contest, I think the same numbers as last year will be pretty close to being the winner. We have four juco transfers whose team did not make it to the NJCAA Nationals last year (but they came close, losing on a last second shot in the Regional finals, being the four seed there). We have a touted freshman class, but they are freshmen nonetheless. The prize of the class is not even far enough along to get twenty minutes against Newman (or CSU, for that matter). And then the coaches have to mold this essentially brand-new team into a unit.

The athleticism has improved a lot, but has the basketball improved a lot? I won't be disappointed if our record is not much better than last year. Rather, I will be pleasantly surprised if we get close to the middle of the pack. There is not a quick fix, and it will take several solid recruiting classes to get us where we want to be. I think this staff can get us there - it just takes time. And they may be more fun to watch in the meantime.

[1972Shocker]

Prediction Recap:

Contestant: Non-con Record + MVC Record = Overall; MVC Road Diff

SpanglerFan 316: 10-1 + 16-2 = 26-3; +8.0
Downtown Shocker Brown: 10-1 + 11-7 = 21-8; +2.2
The Mad Hatter: 9-2 + 10-8 = 19-10; -2.0
pogo: 7-4 + 11-7 = 18-11; +3.5
1972Shocker: 8-3 + 8-10 = 16-13; -8.7
ShockTalk: 7-4 +8-10 = 15-14; -6.5
WuDrWu: 8-3 + 7-11 = 15-14; -7.5
Snapshot9: 7-4 + 6-12 = 13-16; -9.0
SubGod22: 6-5 + 6-12 = 12-17; -5.0

Shocks finish the Non-Conference portion of the Schedule at 8-3 which puts yours truly and Doc in the lead at this point of the season.

I thought the Shocks would beat Northern Colorado and lose to Kent State so I was lucky with those offsetting misses. Also, while I thought they would probably lose on the road to Colorado State I did not expect a 25 point drubbing.

Like last year's 8-3 start against a weak schedule I'm not sure that we have a real good indication of how the Shocks will fare in MVC play. No doubt the youngsters will learn some additional lessons along the way.

At this point I'm thinking maybe my 8-10 MVC finish will prove to be a little too optimistic, although I think overall the conference is not as strong this year as last so we will see.

[pogo]

One game off the pace and my valley prediction still looking good. I'm feeling pretty good about my pick.

[flyingMoose]

For grins, here is the RealTimeRPI.com current prediction of the conference records:

Creighton 14-4
Drake 14-4
Missouri State 13-5
Illinois State 13-5
Indiana State 11-7
Wichita State 11-7
Bradley 6-12
Northern Iowa 4-14
Evansville 2-16
Southern Illinois 2-16

It is only a bunch of number crunching, but ...

[1972Shocker]

I'd take that right now - no questions asked.

[pogo]

At 11-7 I win for the 2nd year in a row. Which way to Vegas?

[pogo]

Sorry, I tie with madhatter. Cancel my flight.

[1972Shocker]

Here are last year's results:

Name of Poster: Non-Con; MVC; Overall; MVC Road Game Net Point Dif

trufan: 8-3; 8-10; 16-13; -8.9
vancedave56: 8-3; 8-10; 16-13; -10.0
newshock1234: 8-3; 7-11; 15-14; -11.0
Denny Crane: 8-3; 6-12; 14-15; -29.0
WuDrWu: 6-5; 7-11; 13-16; -35.0
SubGod22: 8-3; 5-13; 13-16; -12.0
Snapshot9: 7-4; 6-12; 13-16; -9.0
1972Shocker: 8-3; 4-14; 12-17; -13.6
pogo: 7-4; 5-13, 12-17; -11.5
molly jabali: 7-4; 4-14; 11-18; -15.0
shocks02: 7-4; 4-14; 11-18; -7.1

And the winner is -- I was sure molly jabali was on his/her way to a contest win for the second consecutive year, especially after the Shockers were blown out by 32 at UNI on Thursday. But somehow the Ladies knocked of Bradley on Senior night to finish the season at 12-17 (8-3 in the non-conference and 4-14 in the MVC).

Yours truly and pogo tied with their predictions of 12-17 overall (although the sponsor nailed both the non-con and MVC records). The average margin in road games was -15.6 so the tiebreaker goes to yours truly who predicted -13.6 to -11.5 for pogo.

However, since I am the sponsor I have decided to award the prize to pogo. pogo check your PM's.

Technically you finished 2nd on the tiebreaker. Neverthelees the Big Brothers-Big Sisters were grateful for you magnanimous decision to donate the winnings to them.

However, with bragging rights on the line this year it is a very important contest so we need to be vigilant that no point shaving shenanigans occur. I will be watching for that closely.

:whistle:

[1972Shocker]

Prediction Recap:

Contestant: Non-con Record + MVC Record = Overall; MVC Road Diff

SpanglerFan 316: 10-1 + 16-2 = 26-3; +8.0
Downtown Shocker Brown: 10-1 + 11-7 = 21-8; +2.2
The Mad Hatter: 9-2 + 10-8 = 19-10; -2.0
pogo: 7-4 + 11-7 = 18-11; +3.5
1972Shocker: 8-3 + 8-10 = 16-13; -8.7
ShockTalk: 7-4 +8-10 = 15-14; -6.5
WuDrWu: 8-3 + 7-11 = 15-14; -7.5
Snapshot9: 7-4 + 6-12 = 13-16; -9.0
SubGod22: 6-5 + 6-12 = 12-17; -5.0

The Lady Shocks have reached the mid-point of the MVC season with a
4-5 record after going 8-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule.

They have 5 home and 4 road games in the back half of the MVC season. Hard to know what you will get from this team the rest of the way. Hopefully, they can at least duplicate the 4-5 from the 1st half which should keep them out of the play-in round of the MVC Tournament.

MVC road game point differential as at -12.0. I think that will improve as I don't expect a 41-point blowout like we had at Creighton in the 1st MVC road game of the year.