Originally posted by WuDrWu
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2009-10 Women's Basketball Prediction Contest
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RealTimeRPI.com is projecting the Shockers record at 5-4 + 4-14 = 9-18.
They exclude our games against Non-D1 opponents (South Dakota and SIU-Edwardsville).
That below all of our predictions. They are projecting us to finish with an RPI of 300 (Ugh!).
They have us defeating UNI at home and then losing 12 straight in the Valley before a 3-game home winning streak against MSU, Evansille and SIU (by a total margin of 6 points) followed by 2 more road losses to finish the Valley at 4-14.
Before the CSU game I would have said we will easily beat that. Now I'm not so sure, but an RPI of 300 (out of 348) would be pretty embarrassing.
Here's hoping the Ladies have a steep (upwardly sloping) learning curve.
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Originally posted by 1972ShockerRealTimeRPI.com
They have us defeating UNI at home
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Originally posted by flyingMooseOriginally posted by 1972ShockerRealTimeRPI.com
They have us defeating UNI at home
:D
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'Moose, what I suspect really happened their is that their system is purely a quantitative number-crunching exercise. I'm thinking the actual numbers out of the model might have been Shocks - 62.4135786,
UNI - 62.2716357. They give the W to the Shocks but the screen shot only shows the rounded numbers. Who knows!
In any case, I will be disappointed if we do as poorly as they are currently projecting us.
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Originally posted by 1972ShockerI'm thinking the actual numbers out of the model might have been Shocks - 62.4135786,
UNI - 62.2716357. They give the W to the Shocks but the screen shot only shows the rounded numbers. Who knows!
Originally posted by 1972ShockerIn any case, I will be disappointed if we do as poorly as they are currently projecting us.
The athleticism has improved a lot, but has the basketball improved a lot? I won't be disappointed if our record is not much better than last year. Rather, I will be pleasantly surprised if we get close to the middle of the pack. There is not a quick fix, and it will take several solid recruiting classes to get us where we want to be. I think this staff can get us there - it just takes time. And they may be more fun to watch in the meantime.
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Originally posted by 1972ShockerPrediction Recap:
Contestant: Non-con Record + MVC Record = Overall; MVC Road Diff
SpanglerFan 316: 10-1 + 16-2 = 26-3; +8.0
Downtown Shocker Brown: 10-1 + 11-7 = 21-8; +2.2
The Mad Hatter: 9-2 + 10-8 = 19-10; -2.0
pogo: 7-4 + 11-7 = 18-11; +3.5
1972Shocker: 8-3 + 8-10 = 16-13; -8.7
ShockTalk: 7-4 +8-10 = 15-14; -6.5
WuDrWu: 8-3 + 7-11 = 15-14; -7.5
Snapshot9: 7-4 + 6-12 = 13-16; -9.0
SubGod22: 6-5 + 6-12 = 12-17; -5.0
I thought the Shocks would beat Northern Colorado and lose to Kent State so I was lucky with those offsetting misses. Also, while I thought they would probably lose on the road to Colorado State I did not expect a 25 point drubbing.
Like last year's 8-3 start against a weak schedule I'm not sure that we have a real good indication of how the Shocks will fare in MVC play. No doubt the youngsters will learn some additional lessons along the way.
At this point I'm thinking maybe my 8-10 MVC finish will prove to be a little too optimistic, although I think overall the conference is not as strong this year as last so we will see.
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For grins, here is the RealTimeRPI.com current prediction of the conference records:
Creighton 14-4
Drake 14-4
Missouri State 13-5
Illinois State 13-5
Indiana State 11-7
Wichita State 11-7
Bradley 6-12
Northern Iowa 4-14
Evansville 2-16
Southern Illinois 2-16
It is only a bunch of number crunching, but ...
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Here are last year's results:
Name of Poster: Non-Con; MVC; Overall; MVC Road Game Net Point Dif
trufan: 8-3; 8-10; 16-13; -8.9
vancedave56: 8-3; 8-10; 16-13; -10.0
newshock1234: 8-3; 7-11; 15-14; -11.0
Denny Crane: 8-3; 6-12; 14-15; -29.0
WuDrWu: 6-5; 7-11; 13-16; -35.0
SubGod22: 8-3; 5-13; 13-16; -12.0
Snapshot9: 7-4; 6-12; 13-16; -9.0
1972Shocker: 8-3; 4-14; 12-17; -13.6
pogo: 7-4; 5-13, 12-17; -11.5
molly jabali: 7-4; 4-14; 11-18; -15.0
shocks02: 7-4; 4-14; 11-18; -7.1
And the winner is -- I was sure molly jabali was on his/her way to a contest win for the second consecutive year, especially after the Shockers were blown out by 32 at UNI on Thursday. But somehow the Ladies knocked of Bradley on Senior night to finish the season at 12-17 (8-3 in the non-conference and 4-14 in the MVC).
Yours truly and pogo tied with their predictions of 12-17 overall (although the sponsor nailed both the non-con and MVC records). The average margin in road games was -15.6 so the tiebreaker goes to yours truly who predicted -13.6 to -11.5 for pogo.
However, since I am the sponsor I have decided to award the prize to pogo. pogo check your PM's.
However, with bragging rights on the line this year it is a very important contest so we need to be vigilant that no point shaving shenanigans occur. I will be watching for that closely.
:whistle:
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Originally posted by 1972ShockerPrediction Recap:
Contestant: Non-con Record + MVC Record = Overall; MVC Road Diff
SpanglerFan 316: 10-1 + 16-2 = 26-3; +8.0
Downtown Shocker Brown: 10-1 + 11-7 = 21-8; +2.2
The Mad Hatter: 9-2 + 10-8 = 19-10; -2.0
pogo: 7-4 + 11-7 = 18-11; +3.5
1972Shocker: 8-3 + 8-10 = 16-13; -8.7
ShockTalk: 7-4 +8-10 = 15-14; -6.5
WuDrWu: 8-3 + 7-11 = 15-14; -7.5
Snapshot9: 7-4 + 6-12 = 13-16; -9.0
SubGod22: 6-5 + 6-12 = 12-17; -5.0
4-5 record after going 8-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
They have 5 home and 4 road games in the back half of the MVC season. Hard to know what you will get from this team the rest of the way. Hopefully, they can at least duplicate the 4-5 from the 1st half which should keep them out of the play-in round of the MVC Tournament.
MVC road game point differential as at -12.0. I think that will improve as I don't expect a 41-point blowout like we had at Creighton in the 1st MVC road game of the year.
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