Shockers @ Illinois State - Winner Takes All

[1972Shocker]

I will leave it to @flyingMoose to provide his usual excellent and informative pre-game scout on this coming weekend's series with the Illinois State Redbirds. The winner of the series will be the MVC Regular Season Champion.

The Lady Shockers have never one a MVC or a Gateway regular season championship. The Gateway started in 1984 and the MVC in 1993. The Shocks won the 1989 Gateway Tournament under Jim Maynard and the received an at-large bid in 2005 under Tim Walton for their only 2 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. To make the NCAA Tournament this year they will no doubt have to win the Valley post-season tournament. To that end both the Shocks and Redbirds have locked in at least a No. 2 seed which is very big as the top 2 seeds received a double-bye into the semi-finals of the Valley's single elimination tournament. Perhaps the one sport that does significantly reward a team's performance in the regular season. You only need 2 wins from those perches to win the Valley Tournament.

The Redbirds defeated Drake in game 1 of a DH today 11-0 in 5 innings with the second cancelled by storms. At this point the Redbirds are 17-5 (0.773) and the Shocks are 18-6 (0.750) in Valley play. Whoever wins this weekends series will be the regular season Champ.

So at this the Shockers and the Redbirds are pretty much playing for pride and any competitor wants to win every championship they can. Plus All-Sports points are based on the regular season. So it should be spirited battle.

Go get 'em Shocks.

[Hovpen]

What happens if the Shockers go 2-1 this weekend? Do they flip a coin since they will be tied or use the series head to head as a tiebreaker for the 1 seed? Oops, my bad shockers will be one game up in win column.

[1972Shocker]

What happens if the Shockers go 2-1 this weekend? Do they flip a coin since they will be tied or use the series head to head as a tiebreaker for the 1 seed? Oops, my bad shockers will be one game up in win column.

Correct, there will not be a tie if they get all three games in. The winner of the series is the Champion and the loser takes 2nd. If, however, they split 2 games and the 3rd games is rained out. Illinois State would finish at 18-6 and the Shockers would finish at 19-7. If you calculate standing the way MLB does your would say that is a tie. However, when teams play a different number of games during the season the Valley looks to winning percentage to determine the winner. Illinois State would edge the Shockers in this scenario 0.750 to 0.731. The Shocks can win the championship by winning 1 game and having the other two cancelled by weather (unlikely) or by winning two games this weekend (a real challenge but doable).

[WuDrWu]

1-0, 2-0, 2-1 & 3-0 Shocks win. 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 & 0-3 ISU wins. Approximately a 44% chance WSU will finish 1st and 56% ISU will finish 1st.

Advantage Redbirds. Plus ISU has been really tearing up the Valley of late. Big hill to climb....hope the ladies are ready for it. It would be a great championship if they could pull it off.

WSU is averaging a 1.25 finish half way through the spring season of 8 sports. Pretty salty. Do I hear 7 firsts and 1 second? :yahoo:

[1972Shocker]

I'm not sure the approach @WuDrWu used to give the Illinois State a 56% chance of winning vs 44% for the Shocks is the way to look at this or not. Although when you look at the stats he may not be too far off. I am looking at the stats only for conference play a because that 1) is the best apples to apples comparison in terms of competition played and 2) that represents mostly games played in the 2nd half of the season.

The Shocks lead the Valley in Team BA at 0.330 but Illinois State is a closed second at 0.320, however, the Redbirds have an OPS of 0.982 vs 0.892 for the Shocks. I give the Illinois State a slight advantage here.

Illinois State leads the Valley with an ERA of 2.46 and they have a WHIP of 1.33. The Shocks have a team ERA of 3.35 in Valley play (3rd best) and a WHIP of 1.56. (I include hit by pitches in my WHIP calculations). Advantage Illinois State.

The Shocks lead the Valley in team fielding % at 0.983 but Illinois State is a close 2nd at 0.976. That's a wash.

Illinois State averages 7.27 runs per Valley game and has allowed 2.64 runs per game for a average winning margin of 4.63
Wichita State Averages 5.83 runs per Valley game and has allowed 3.42 runs per game for an average winning margin of 2.41
That's a farily big advantage to Illinois State.

In terms of experience Illinois State has a Sr. pitcher and a So. pitcher who get most of the innings. The Shocks rely on a Senior and 2 Freshman and more or less pitch by committee based on who seems to effective at any point in time.

Illinois State has a total of 29 combined years of experience among their primary starting 9 position players and that includes 2 Redshirt Seniors and 2 4-year Seniors. The Shockers have a total combined 18 years of experience among their primary starting 9. Again advantage solidly to Illinois State.

The games are being played at Normal. The Redbirds are 7-1 at home in Valley play. OTOH the Shocks are 9-2 in away games in Valley play. Still the home team has to have at least a slight advantage.

Looking at these number I'm not sure the Shocks chances are as good as 44%. 20% may be more like it.

OTOH, stats don't measure intangibles and it has been a special year for the Lady Shocks. The fact that they are so young may work in their favor. They may not realize they aren't supposed to win this thing.

:poster_shocks:

[flyingMoose]

OTOH, stats don't measure intangibles and it has been a special year for the Lady Shocks. The fact that they are so young may work in their favor. They may not realize they aren't supposed to win this thing.

This is the factor I was counting on to make the difference, but then we only took one from the Salukis. Did the rarefied air come into play? Though getting two runs in the sixth against them to take the lead and then a one-two-three seventh, Jenni's only inning to not allow baserunners (I think), was a promising sign.

[flyingMoose]

It's not going to change between now and the weekend, so here are the notes @1972Shocker mentioned were coming.

Saturday is Senior Day for five Redbird seniors.

Illinois State are 17-5 in the Valley, winning every series they played. They took two of three from Northern Iowa, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Loyola and Bradley and most recently, swept Evansville and Missouri State. In two attempts at the Drake series, they won the only game played.

Using conference-only stats, they have a number offensive players of note. Laura Canopy leads the pack with a BA of .421 and an OPS of 1.447 with six homers. Others are Kara Repp (BA of .383), Jordan de los Reyes (.371 and 1.174), Sara Bradley (.339 and 1.132 with five homers) and Regan Romshek (.316 and .975).

Romshek, who gets the two of the weekend starts, has been on a roll recently. Her record is 10-5 with an ERA of 2.28 and an (old-school) WHIP of 1.24. She has four shutouts in conference play, including three of her last four starts, and has been Pitcher of the Week twice in the last three weeks. Taylor Baxter gets the other start. She is 7-0 with an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP 1.46.

For the Shocks, only three hitters compare with the Redbird stats: Brittany (.500 and 1.337), Cacy (.447 and 1.361 with seven homers), and Liz (.338 and .955).

Katie has the most starts in the circle during conference play. Her ERA is 3.42 with a WHIP of 1.60 (she walks too many) and a record of 7-3. Sloan, with a record of 7-2, has an ERA of 2.69 and a WHIP of 1.28. Jenni's numbers are 4.29 and 1.47 with a record of 4-1. Sloan's strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.00 while Katie's is 1.73. For comparison, Romshek's is 2.63.

Given the Shocker's tendency to do better the second time they see a pitcher, if we win one Saturday, we have a chance to take the series. It depends in large part upon our holding the Redbird bats down, a tall order.

[1972Shocker]

On paper Illinois State clearly looks like the best team and a clear, if not heavy, favorite to win the weekend's series. Thankfully, they still require that the games be played on the field. As long as that's the case the Shocks have a shot.

[ShockTalk]

For me, this weekend can only add, not take away, to what these lady Shockers have done this season! :encouragement:

Time to add more kudos to a fantastic season. Go Shox!!

[flyingMoose]

On paper Illinois State clearly looks like the best team ...

Illinois State has the best RPI of the Valley teams at 55. The Shocks are next at 89. I have never followed the RPIs of the at-large bids, but clearly only the Redbirds have a chance of an at-large.

[1972Shocker]

Illinois State has the best RPI of the Valley teams at 55. The Shocks are next at 89. I have never followed the RPIs of the at-large bids, but clearly only the Redbirds have a chance of an at-large.

Seems a little high for an at large but could improve if they win at least 2 this weekend. Would no doubt rise into the 60's if they lose 2 this weekend. I know what I will be rooting for. Come on 60's.

ILS must have played a very, very tough non-con schedule if they still have an RPI of 55 as they went 8-19 in non-con games.

[flyingMoose]

ILS must have played a very, very tough non-con schedule if they still have an RPI of 55 as they went 8-19 in non-con games.

Historically, they play the toughest non-conference schedule in the Valley. Games this year (ratings depending on the week) against 3/4 Florida, 4/5 Michigan, 3 Washington, 11/7 Oklahoma, 5 Arizona State, 20/22 Louisiana-Lafayette, 25 Auburn, 23 Notre Dame, 17/18 Missouri and 4/6 Oregon. Nary a win in the ten games, but there is definitely nothing in the Valley they haven't seen.

[1972Shocker]

but there is definitely nothing in the Valley they haven't seen.

Perhaps a "finesse" pitcher like Jenni Brooks.

[1972Shocker]

Game 1 GameTracker

Katie Malone in the circle for the Shocks. Regan Romshek for the Redbirds.

Both teams dented the scoreboard in the 3rd with solo homeruns with Paige Luellen doing the honors for the Shocks.

After 3 complete its 1-1.

Go Shocks.

[flyingMoose]

A single and a homer leading off the Redbird fourth give them a 3-1 lead.

Katie walked the bases loaded in the fifth but escaped the jam. Redbirds lead 3-1 after five complete.

The long-ball game continues. Brittany homers in the sixth for the Shocks. PaigeM and Melanie follow with singles, but the Shockers cannot dent the plate again. 3-2 Redbirds in the middle of the sixth. All of the runs have scored on homers.