MVC Tournament

[SpanglerFan316]

The seeds are set: http://www.mvc-sports.com/volleyball...-championship/

Seed, Team MVC Record
1. Creighton (17-1)
2. UNI (15-3)
3. Wichita State (13-5)
4. Southern Illinois (11-7)
5. Illinois State (11-7)
6. Missouri State (10-8)

For the last time, I'll refer back to the quote below and then note that WSU could lose to MSU in the MVC tourney. (This is the only way MSU and SIU could meet again this year and, obviously, I don't want to see it happen. :) )

SIU does seem to be improved but they've played a terrible schedule. Their best win is a decent one against St. Louis and Jackie Church's younger sister Anna, but otherwise that schedule is awful.

SIU isn't finishing ahead of MSU.

Doc, it's all in good fun and you were not the only one who could not see SIU finishing ahead of MSU. I have thought that SIU got a really good WVB coach and they will become a force in the Valley.

[shoxlax]

So, VB experts Spangler, Doc and 72' what do we need to do to get an at large bid?

[WuDrWu]

Talking to the staff last night, I think we could feel encouraged but not comfortable if we beat Missouri State on Thanksgiving. If we beat MSU and then UNI, I think we're in for sure.

I'll say this though, if we beat MSU and UNI, I don't think it will matter because I think we'll beat CU and get the autobid.

That being said, I do not expect that to happen. We have our collective hands FULL with the Bears on Thursday.

[flyingMoose]

Talking to the staff last night, I think we could feel encouraged but not comfortable if we beat Missouri State on Thanksgiving.

I agree, a necessary condition but not sufficient - encouraged, but not comfortable.

[shoxlax]

I agree, a necessary condition but not sufficient - encouraged, but not comfortable.

Sorry Moose, how could I forget you when asking for an advisory opinion on women's sports? My fault.

[flyingMoose]

Sorry Moose, how could I forget you when asking for an advisory opinion on women's sports? My fault.

Believe me, no problem! I often chime in uninvited. :)

[WuDrWu]

Some things good for us. 8-8 vs top 100 (which is bubble good). 12 wins away from home (VERY good period, especially for bubble teams).

Also good is Dayton and WKU winning their tourneys. Those are 1 bid leagues UNLESS they lost and then it shrinks the bubble. But they didn't lose so the bubble remains the same.

No significant losses (won't change) and 3 significant wins which COULD climb to 5 or 6 if SIU could climb into the top 75.

Illinois won't get to .500 so they're out.

Win against Auburn is very good right now, considering they're right there with us on the bubble. Our Pablo is a problem though in the low 50s. Last 10 isn't great either but not terrible at 7-3...6-4 would be worse. UNI is lower in the RPI but their sweep of us will kill us come selection time.

There are 31 autobids leaving 33 at large. I count 15 1 bid leagues without a top 50 or bubble consideration team.

If my quick look and math are correct, no promises, then that leaves 33 out of the top 60 rpi (minus the 15 auto qualifiers) or 33 out of 45...meaning 12 of the top 60 won't get in. This assumes nobody above 60 has a chance, which isn't a sure thing at all.

You can remove 2 teams, Illinois and Oregon State who will be below .500 so that number of excluded teams is down to 10. Auburn, Loyola Marymount, Va Tech, TCU and Georgia are below us in stature, even if we lose to MSU (my opinion). Things don't look awful, although these are using some dated numbers. New rankings might change things tomorrow.

[WuDrWu]

This guy does good work, and if I count correctly (again, no promises) he has 20 spots for 24 teams and Illinois is one of the 24.

http://volleytalk.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=46857&page=1

So only 3 of his bubble teams won't make it. We're still right there.

[1972Shocker]

First of all I had no idea that I was an expert in VB. Someone has very low standards. However, I agree with Doc that we have to beat MSU to even be in the discussion for an NCAA bid. After that a lot will depend on how many autobid tournaments are won by low seeds.

I we can get by MSU and UNI I think we can feel very good about our chances. However, UNI has dominated us twice this year. I just don't think we match up well with them and I'm not sure the Lady Shocks believe they can beat the Lady Panthers.

Hopefully, they will put that statement on the bulletin board and make me eat my words.

[JayJ79]

After that a lot will depend on how many autobid tournaments are won by low seeds.

Unless I missed something, the only conference where such an conference tourney upset could take place (at this point), would be the Missouri Valley.

In fact, going by RPI (i.e. disqualifying anyone with an RPI over 55 or so from the at-large discussion) and conference tourney results already determined, then at least 22 of the 31 conferences will be 1-bid leagues.

I'm thinking the only conferences with a chance at multiple bids are: Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, West Coast and ACC (who will all get at least 3 in); Big East will get 1-3, MVC will get 1-3, Mountain West will get 1-2.

[SpanglerFan316]

So, VB experts Spangler, Doc and 72' what do we need to do to get an at large bid?

Get a tartis and a 22nd century "super doctor" and then go back in time to the matches we lost this year. Do overs are always good. ;)

[flyingMoose]

Some things good for us. 8-8 vs top 100 (which is bubble good). 12 wins away from home (VERY good period, especially for bubble teams).

Also good is Dayton and WKU winning their tourneys. Those are 1 bid leagues UNLESS they lost and then it shrinks the bubble. But they didn't lose so the bubble remains the same.

No significant losses (won't change) and 3 significant wins which COULD climb to 5 or 6 if SIU could climb into the top 75.

Illinois won't get to .500 so they're out.

Win against Auburn is very good right now, considering they're right there with us on the bubble. Our Pablo is a problem though in the low 50s. Last 10 isn't great either but not terrible at 7-3...6-4 would be worse. UNI is lower in the RPI but their sweep of us will kill us come selection time.

There are 31 autobids leaving 33 at large. I count 15 1 bid leagues without a top 50 or bubble consideration team.

If my quick look and math are correct, no promises, then that leaves 33 out of the top 60 rpi (minus the 15 auto qualifiers) or 33 out of 45...meaning 12 of the top 60 won't get in. This assumes nobody above 60 has a chance, which isn't a sure thing at all.

You can remove 2 teams, Illinois and Oregon State who will be below .500 so that number of excluded teams is down to 10. Auburn, Loyola Marymount, Va Tech, TCU and Georgia are below us in stature, even if we lose to MSU (my opinion). Things don't look awful, although these are using some dated numbers. New rankings might change things tomorrow.

Nice analysis using criteria beyond the RPI that the Selection Committee will use.

[flyingMoose]

A VT thread that examines at-large candidates:

http://volleytalk.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=46969&page=1

Wichita State is on Page 2, but is out of order. The OP presents them in (RKPI + 1/2 Pablo) order and the Shocks would trail UNI and be ahead of Missouri had he not forgotten them (I reminded him :) ) on his first pass.

[WuDrWu]

I'm changing my opinion after crunching the numbers and the teams. If we beat MSU we're in, period. I give us slightly better than 50/50 even if we lose, BUT given the bias, DO NOT LOSE.

[1972Shocker]

I'm changing my opinion after crunching the numbers and the teams. If we beat MSU we're in, period. I give us slightly better than 50/50 even if we lose, BUT given the bias, DO NOT LOSE.

I could not think of a sweeter finish than to knock of Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Creighton on consecutive days. That may be dreaming but that would transform a nice, solid season into a very, very good season and add a win in the NCAA Tournament and these Ladies and their fans would have a season to remember.

Go Shocks!